V/R
Dave
Is the Kim Family Regime Rational and Why Don't the North Korean People Rebel?
David S. Maxwell
January 2012
With the death of Kim Jong-il and the ensuing temporary focus on North Korea, I was recently asked some questions that I think are worth considering. In light of the negative reaction of the South Korean stock markets to the rumor that the North had conducted a nuclear test, I was asked whether the North would ever carry out the irrational act of using its very limited nuclear weapons against the South when such an action would cause the end of the regime? In addition, given the horrendous suffering of the North, many rightly question why North Koreans do not rebel against the tyrannical and criminal dictatorship -- arguably one of the worst violators of human rights in modern history -- of the Kim Family Regime (KFR)? This paper will provide some thoughts on the answers to these separate but inter-related questions.
(Continued at the link below)
http://www.fpri.org/articles/2012/01/kim-family-regime-rational-and-why-dont-north-korean-people-rebelThe Death of a Dictator: Danger, Opportunity or Best Timing Possible?
by Dave Maxwell
When assessing the North Korean succession process the “Korean Hands” will remind us that Kim Jong-il had 21 years to consolidate power and eliminate all political opposition and that the longer that Kim Jong-il lived the greater the chances of a smooth succession from the North Korean perspective. Everything changed on December 17, 2011 at 8:30 in the morning aboard a train in north Korea when Kim Jong-il died of fatigue and overwork according to the Korean Central News Agency. The questions are many but can be boiled down to what next for the Kim Family Regime, the ROK, the US and Northeast Asia?
There are two scenarios that are likely to play out within North Korea. The first scenario depends on the strength and power of Jang Song-taek who, along with his wife and the late Kim Jong-il’s sister, is the de facto “regent” for the young Kim Jong-un. Has he been able to help Kim Jong-un establish sufficient legitimacy within the Regime and will they be able to consolidate power? It is very likely that if Kim has sufficient strength and control of the security apparatus there are very likely arrests and purges taking place even as we try to figure out what is happening.
The second scenario is that he has not been able to consolidate sufficient power and will be faced with internal threats from other senior members of the regime who are unwilling to allow a 27 year old four star general rule the party and the military. If there is a power struggle many scenarios can play out ranging from internal chaos, civil war, and “implosion” to an external “explosion” – e.g., spillover of the effects of chaos and civil war into China and the ROK or the worst case: the desperate execution of the regime’s campaign plan to reunify the peninsula as the only means left to ensure survival of the Kim Family Regime. Finally, regime collapse will occur when there is the loss of the ability of the regime to centrally govern and the loss of control and support of the military and security apparatus. We have seen cracks in the system like hairline cracks in a dam. The recently reported alleged defection of eight armed guards is but one indication of such cracks with water slowly dripping from through the regime’s dam - the question is are those cracks repairable or will they cause the dam to crumble and collapse; unleashing such a torrent on the peninsula that will make 1950-53 look like a minor skirmish in terms of scale of potential conflict and devastation.
(Continued at the link below)
http://smallwarsjournal.com/blog/the-death-of-a-dictator-danger-opportunity-or-best-timing-possible
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