Good overview for those who expected changes in the Kim Family Regime. I think the real significant change is not a movement away from Military First Politics (vice policy) but the addition of "Image First Politics" as I have heard some Korean scholars describe. They are not mutually exclusive but more mutually reinforcing. But the vital interests of the regime and its strategies have not changed in the least. Purges are nothing new. Dealing with the potential for internal instability is a critical function of the security services and military. Continuing to demand total and personal loyalty to Kim Jong-un is exactly as the Great and Dear Leaders required. We will and have seen tactical and operational adjustments but the fundamental interest of and strategy for protecting the survival of the Kim Family Regime are will not and cannot be altered. It is the ultimate paradox because the regime does need to make economic and external political changes in order to gain the resources to survive, yet to make those changes would so undercut the internal legitimacy of the regime that it would cause significant instability. And again, paradoxically both courses of action, either reform or maintaining the status quo, will lead to the eventual failure of the Kim Family Regime and all the attendant consequences for Northeast Asia and the international community.
V/R
Dave
2012/12/09 09:53 KST
(LEAD)(News Focus) N. Korea after Kim Jong-il's death: different leadership, same 'military-first' policy
By Kim Eun-jung
SEOUL, Dec. 9 (Yonhap) -- When North Korea announced the death of its long-time leader, Kim Jong-il, nearly a year ago, the world's eyes were on his heir-apparent and third and youngest son -- believed to be in his late 20s -- Kim Jong-un.
In the run-up to his confirmation as the new leader of the impoverished state with a population of 24 million, outside watchers worried that the transition could ignite a power struggle.
Last month, however, South Korea's Defense Minister Kim Kwan-jin said that, at least for now, the new North Korean leader has made a rather smooth transition into power, and is apparently following in the footsteps of his father's military-first policy.
In a sign of flexing its muscles, the North in April had attempted to launch a rocket to celebrate the 100th anniversary of the birth of the leader's late grandfather, and the country's founder, Kim Il-sung, but the much-hyped test was a failure.
The failure has not deterred Pyongyang from announcing its plan to launch a long-range rocket later this month.
Although Kim had initially planned to fire off the rocket sometime between Dec. 10-22, close to the anniversary of his father's death on Dec. 17, the state media on Sunday said it is considering postponing the dates of its planned launch, citing an unspecified "reason."
The latest development raised speculation over whether the decision was made in consideration of technical obstacles caused by recent heavy snow or growing international pressure on the move.
North Korea claims that this rocket launch is to put a satellite in orbit but South Korea, the United States and other regional players suspect it is a disguised test of the North's long-range ballistic missile technology.
In the year since given the helm of North Korea, what is different compared to his father is the personality cult that has developed around the Swiss-educated despot.
Before Kim Jong-un became the leader, there was only one picture of him from his childhood available outside of North Korea. Now, his photos are everywhere in the country.
(Continued at the link below)
No comments:
Post a Comment