Kim Jong-eun should fear Sunshine

There is of course the theory that a fully executed Sunshine Policy could unhinge the regime because so much aid and more importantly information would get into the north and it would undercut regime legitimacy and thus lead to collapse.  Under such a theory the end state would be regime collapse and unification of the peninsula.  Unfortunately the Sunshine Policy is based on the flawed assumption that aid to and engagement with the north  will lead to a change in regime behavior.  We should know after the 12/12/12 missile launch that the regime has no intention to (nor can it) change its behavior.  

In addition, it would be quite a policy shift by the ROK and the US to actively attempt to undermine the regime to cause it to collapse.  Ironically no one in the region really wants that to happen because 1) it could lead to war and 2) the financial and economic (and not to mention the humanitarian) burden will be so great as to overwhelm the ROK and others potentially destabilize the region.  So while it is in everyone's interest to maintain the status quo we face the moral dilemma of 22, 995,000 people living in a virtual prison suffering on a scale that has little rival in history.

But I would offer this strategic assumption: There will be no change on the Korean peninsula as long as the Kim Family Regime exists.

V/R

Dave

COMMENT Kim Jong-eun should fear Sunshine By Andrei Lankov  http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/NL15Dg01.html Whatever policy towards North Korea will be chosen by the new South Korean government following the December 19 presidential election, it seems clear that it will be significantly softer than that followed by the Lee Myung-bak administration.  Right now it appears that Park Geun-hye, the candidate of the moderate right, has better chance of winning, but it is unlikely that she will continue with the hardline policy of her predecessor.  This looming dovish turn is likely to annoy some people on the political right in South Korea. They often vilify aid to, and cooperation with North Korea as "appeasement", and they point to the obvious lack of reciprocity in North-South relations. It is stated that the money earned by Pyongyang through exchanges with the South is used to strengthen North Korean leader Kim Jong-eun's rule.  These accusations have within them a kernel of truth. In few, if any, cases have interactions between North and South Korea been equal. Much of these interactions are officially termed "economic exchanges", but in most cases they are heavily subsidized by the South Korean government. To be blunt, without direct or indirect subsidies neither the Kaesong industrial complex, nor the now defunct Keumgang and Kaesong city tours would be viable economically.  It is also true that the North Korean government takes the lion's share of all the "profits" from such "economic cooperation" projects, then re-distributing this income as it sees fit. It is indeed likely that many secret police in North Korea have been paid indirectly by the South Korean taxpayers.  However, things are not so simple as all that. Economic exchanges do not merely fill the coffers of the regime, but also introduce dangerous knowledge about the outside world to North Koreans who are involved.  A North Korean seamstress in a Kaesong textiles factory has a South Korean manager to whom she has to talk every day. When the Kaesong city tours were in operation, the entire city of Kaesong could see busloads of South Koreans whose behaviour and dress clearly demonstrated that they were not merely the enslaved, downtrodden pawns of US imperialism. The same can be said about virtually any interaction between North and South Koreans.  (Continued at the link below) http://www.atimes.com/atimes/Korea/NL15Dg01.html