The Kim Family Regime Cannot and Will Not Change

The Kim Family Regime Cannot and Will Not Change

By Dave Maxwell

There should be no doubt now about north Korea, the Kim Family Regime and the intentions of Kim Jong-un.

Those who hoped for change with the succession of the western educated Kim Jong-un have had their hopes dashed.

The ballistic missile launch that occurred on 12/12/12 confirms what many have suspected for a long time:

The north Korean nation-state under the rule of the Kim Family Regime is incapable of being a responsible member of the international community.

We really need to understand this fundamental problem and the conundrum with which we are faced on the Korean Peninsula.

There is a wide range of speculation about why the north conducted this ballistic missile test:  some examples include regime legitimacy, solidification of Kim Jong-un’s leadership, domestic propaganda – live up to the goal of 2012 as the year of strength and prosperity; support to Iranian missile development and for international sales and proliferation; influence on the ROK and Japanese elections; to somehow gain political and economic concessions and support to its blackmail diplomacy; deterrence and national security and finally because it was required to move the missile program to the next level of development.

Regardless of the reasons the regime is likely to face international condemnation and perhaps increased UN sanctions if that is possible.  It will likely lose the opportunity for a near term return to any type of Sunshine Policy or “Trustpolitik” with the ROK depending on who is elected as the next ROK President.  Efforts to support the Proliferation Security Initiative will be increased.  International aid could very well dry up.

But regardless of the rationale for this test launch one thing should be absolutely clear about the regime:

            It has prioritized its missile (and likely its nuclear) program over all else. 

This is a clear indication that regime survival remains its vital national interest and the leadership believes that it must have a strong military capability for deterrence and security even at the expense of the welfare of its people.  It has no intention of returning to the Six Party Talks, making economic or political reforms to improve the life of its people, or doing anything whatsoever to give even the appearance of being a reasonably responsible member of the international community.

North Korea apologists can blame the Clinton, Bush, and Obama administrations, or the Kim, Roh and Lee administrations but each has made offers and overtures, tried to reach out and give a hand up, and provided aid (food and energy) and the only thing to show for their efforts are missile and nuclear tests, continued provocations, and a failed economy and the suffering of 23 million people on a scale likely never before seen in history.

The Kim Family Regime will not change.  It cannot change because to do so means that its legitimacy will be undercut and this will lead to regime collapse.

Although north Korea is a Communist state, it is in name only and cannot be compared to China or the former Soviet Union. North Korea, being more homogenous than either of those countries, has been able to both indoctrinate and suppress its people to degrees that Stalin and Mao could only dream.  Kim Jong-un cannot allow for any relief of this suppression nor can he allow economic reform in any way because it will lead to political pressures under which the regime will not survive.  It is the design of the system itself which is focused only on the perpetuation of the Kim Family Regime that prevents it from changing.  

As we move forward from 12/12/12 policy makers and strategists must understand the situation and the Kim Family Regime  as it really exists and not as they would wish it to be.  For the last two decades a lot of wishful thinking about north Korea has formed the basis for strategic assumptions.

Today the Chinese news agency Xinhua made the following comment:

“In international relations, as in life, the best way to make an enemy of a country is to treat it like one. This rule of thumb is also true with making friends.”

We have seen how the Kim Family Regime has acted despite the Agreed Framework, the ROK Sunshine Policy and the Six Party Talks.  Perhaps the Xinhua ideal applies in life and in international relations. I do not think it applies to north Korea.  Therefore we must plan accordingly.