Saturday, December 15, 2012

Updated: What North Korea's rocket launch tells us about Iran's role


As expected I knew I would receive a response  to provide more thorough analysis to refute the conjecture in the article below (of course some who will still disagree with this and if so please send it my way):

If I may, please allow me to add my comments to this very misleading report...

This is a very poorly researched piece (please see the press piece you have forwarded below my comments).
Please allow me to give you an example from the piece: 
"We know North Korea and Iran have worked together in missile design. Vick says the evidence can be seen by comparing the North Korean Nodong missile with Iran's Shahab missile. 
"In every detail, right down to the re-entry vehicles, Nodong-A is the Shahab-3," he says. "The technology is being transferred in both directions, and I think that's what's going on in the nuclear technology, too." 
Of course the Shahab-3 is a Nodong - because the North Koreans tested the No Dong in 1993 (Iranians and Pakistanis were present at the test to observe and possibly purchase the missile - which both nations did), and the Iranians purchased it beginning in the mid-1990s. How in the world does this prove anything except that North Korea builds missiles and the Iranians buy missiles from the North Koreans? Perhaps they should have done their homework before making such an assertion. 
Below is yet another rather amatuer mistake. One of the stages of this rocket does in fact look like one of the stages of the Safir Iranian platform that launched their missile. Why? Because it looks like that stage is made up of No Dong engines. Again, very simple, it is a NORTH KOREAN design - sold to the Iranians. And please allow me to remind you that the Safir was a TWO-STAGE platform - not a three stage platform. There was no technology in the Safir that the North Koreans did not already have.

"Theodore Postol, a missile expert at MIT, says the third stage of the North Korean rocket launched this week looks like a comparable stage in a rocket designed by the Iranians. 
"They were able to collaborate with equipment given to them or sent to them from North Korea, and at the same time do a lot of the research and engineering development needed to build this upper stage," Postol says. 
What this means, Postol thinks, is that this week's North Korean rocket was actually a joint production between North Korean and Iranian engineers." 
Now, below is the only sentence in this report that actually makes sense. North Korea has developed the technology for a three-stage ballistic missile, and now that they have successfully test-launched it, the Iranians would like to acquite it. THIS IS  THE REAL OCCURANCE OF DECEMBER 2012. It also has nothing to do with the Iranians "helping" the North Koreans with their missile program. There is no evidence to support such a far fetched assessment. How in the world would the Iranians be "helping" the North Koreans with their program if the Iranians do not have a program (yet) for a three-stage ballistic missile? This makes no sense at all. The evidence is clear. North Korea is the seller, and Iran is the buyer - of ballistic missiles and missile technology, nuclear weaponization technology, and a rather wide range of conventional weapons. 
"Of course, Lewis says, every test is a learning experience. Iran may want to develop its own long-range, intercontinental ballistic missile; North Korea's demonstration of such a capability this week should provide data that Iranian engineers can put to good use." 
I continue to by amazed at how people are taking this theory of Iran "helping" North Korea seriously.  In order to have a credible theory, one must have evidence.  For this theory, there is much evidence to contrary.  Those who believe it makes sense have not done their research and do not understand the North Korean Iranian relationship.  This is a hugely important national security issue, but also one that we should accurately depict.
Please see below,
Bruce Bechtol 

What North Korea's rocket launch tells us about Iran's role
Tom Gjelten with NPR | December 14th, 2012, 11:30am
http://www.scpr.org/news/2012/12/14/35257/what-north-koreas-rocket-launch-tells-us-about-ira/

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