Commentary on north Korean Capabiltiies

Some very important comments from Dr. Bechtol regarding north Korean capabilities:

There is, already, some semi-accurate information being disseminated - just hours after the (what appears to be) successful test launch of the Taepo Dong 2.  How very fascinating!

I heard a CNN reporter early this morning talk about how the North Koreans may still face issues with "re-entry technology."

Not exactly.

They already have the the technology.  I guess he does not realize that one needs such technology for other ballistic missiles (successfully tested by the NK's), such as the Musudan.

He also stated that accuracy will "be a problem."

Again, not exactly.

Not likely to be a concern for the North Koreans.  If they hit Oahu (something they have just proven they can do), they have an 75% chance of hitting a population center (3/4 of the island is heavily populated now).  Even if the missile is only equipped with a chemical warhead - and not a nuke - they would be able to create casualties (mostly civilians) in the thousands.

This is a big deal.

There are three major issues that the North Koreans must overcome (of course not widely discussed in reporting yet - but hopefully soon):

- Launching the missile by avoiding a preemptive strike.  A difficult measure right now for the North Koreans, since everything is out in the open and the Americans could destroy the missile well before it is launched.  The North Koreans will need to either develop a mobile launcher and/or site, or a covert site where we cannot detect launch preparations ahead time (as we can now).

-  Placing a nuclear payload on the missile.  It is unclear if the North Koreans have stablized the platform to the point that they could place a nuclear warhead on the missile.  In fact, it is unlikely that they have been able to do so yet.  Their big challenge now will be fitting a nuclear warhead to a Taepo Dong 2.  If they are (so far) unable to do so, the likely alternative is a chemical payload - a much easier proposition. 

-  Proliferating the missile to Iran.  The Taepo Dong 2 is so big that it would likely have to be sent to Iran in stages if transported by aircraft.  Because of PSI (Proliferation Security Initiative) it will be difficult to fly aircraft to Iran without having to pass through the airspace of nations who would force it down.  One alternative of course, is to fly through China and then south to Iran.  The question is, will the Chinese allow this (as they did with HEU parts and No Dong missiles going back and forth to Pakistan during the 1990s until 2002)?  Alternatively, the North Koreans could use maritime means to transport the missiles to Iran.  This has proven to be dicey at times as well (largely, again, because of PSI), but the North Koreans have proven to be quite clever in their use of tactics, techniques, and procedures for getting around international counter-proliferation.
Best Wishes,
Bruce