Thought for the Day

"No matter how busy you are, you must find time for reading, or you surrender yourself to self-chosen ignorance." Confucius

Wednesday, January 28, 2015

Keynote Address LTG Michael Flynn NDIA Jan 28, 2015

Forwarded with LTG Flynn's permission.

I strongly recommend reading this.  
Please download it at this link:
 
https://db.tt/SohjnEGH


Keynote Address
LTG Michael Flynn
National Defense Industrial Association
26th Annual SO/LIC Symposium
Washington, D.C.
January 28, 2015

Saturday, January 24, 2015

S. Korea, China confirm joint stance on N.K. nuclear issue

Excerpt:

The aid-for-disarmament talks, which involve the two Koreas, China, the U.S., Japan and Russia, were last held in late 2008 before Pyongyang dropped out in protest of U.N. sanctions levied against it.

If that is all the 6 party talks are about (aid for disarmament) it is no wonder that there has been no return to the table.  The north has shown that it can continue to survive without aid.  Sure it would like the sanctions dropped but it will not give up the only security guarantee that it controls - its nuclear weapons.  We are not going to be able to bribe north Korea with humanitarian aid because it does not care about what happens to its people and frankly the people have been demonstrating a very high level of resilience as they have had to cope with the failed public distribution system and very little international aid for some years now.  The conundrum for the nuclear negotiations is that the north will not sacrifice its security by giving up its nuclear weapons and there is no guarantee by the US, the ROK, and the international community that the north will believe and trust save perhaps a complete withdrawal of US forces from the peninsula (and the regime will always consider what has happened to Saddam, Qaddafi, and Ukraine and their nuclear programs - and weapons in the case of Ukraine) .  Leaving the peninsula of course is a non-starter because the security of the ROK could not be guaranteed without the deterrent capability of the ROK/US military alliance because the north is much more likely to attack the ROK when US forces leave.  We have more than sixty years of evidence that that is its intent.  This is perhaps a diplomatic and security Catch-22. 

(LEAD) S. Korea, China confirm joint stance on N.K. nuclear issue

2015/01/23 19:45Twee
SEOUL, Jan. 23 (Yonhap) -- South Korean President Park Geun-hye and Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang met in Seoul Friday, agreeing that the two countries will continue working closely on the resumption of multilateral talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program, Park's office said.
Wang, who arrived in Seoul Thursday for a three-day visit, also delivered a message from Chinese President Xi Jinping, saying the neighbors should deepen their strategic partnership and make efforts to revive the stalled six-party denuclearization talks, it said.
The aid-for-disarmament talks, which involve the two Koreas, China, the U.S., Japan and Russia, were last held in late 2008 before Pyongyang dropped out in protest of U.N. sanctions levied against it.
Park said she hopes Seoul and Beijing will continue to seek "creative and varied" means to resume the talks and work closely to form a "virtuous circle" involving North Korea's denuclearization and improved inter-Korean ties.
China is North Korea's largest political ally and economic benefactor.
Touching on inter-Korean relations, Park's office said that Xi "positively evaluated reciprocal offers" for dialogue that the two Koreas have recently made.
South Korea is waiting for a response from the North over its December proposal to hold high-level talks on pending issues such as a reunion for families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War.
The North has yet to officially respond to that overture, but North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said in his New Year address that he is open to holding a summit with Park this year if conditions are met.
Park and Wang also exchanged views on economic and cultural ties between South Korea and China, as the sides have yet to sign a bilateral free trade agreement reached last November and 2015 has been named the "Year of Visit to China." the presidential office said in a news release.
Wang visited Seoul to attend the launch ceremony for the tourism campaign.
(END)

Obama: North Korea is bound to collapse

President Obama provides strategic guidance on north Korea via YouTube. We have to be careful what we ask for especially if we have not prepared for it.  Are we really looking for ways to accelerate that change?  And what happens when it occurs?  Do we have an unconventional warfare plan to support this strategic guidance? 

Excerpts:

   "The kind of authoritarianism that exists there, you almost can't duplicate anywhere else. It's brutal and it's oppressive and as a consequence, the country can't really even feed its own people," Obama said. "Over time, you will see a regime like this collapse."
...
   "So the answer is not going to be a military solution. We will keep on ratcheting the pressure, but part of what's happening is that the environment that we're speaking in today, the Internet, over time is going to be penetrating this country," Obama said.

   "And it is very hard to sustain that kind of brutal authoritarian regime in this modern world. Information ends up seeping in over time and bringing about change, and that's something that we are constantly looking for ways to accelerate," he added.
...
   Many analysts agree that North Korea stands low in the U.S. priority listand that the Obama administration has little interest in resuming nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang. The U.S. has demanded Pyongyang take concrete steps demonstrating its denuclearization commitments before nuclear talks reopen.
(ATTN: RECASTS paras 1-2, ADDS background in last 3 paras)
   U.S. President Barack Obama said he believes North Korea will ultimately collapse, but a military solution is not the answer to handling the communist nation armed with nuclear technologies and missiles.

   Obama made the remark in an interview on Youtube on Thursday, stressing that the Internet will ultimately find its way into the isolated totalitarian nation and spread information that will undercut the authoritarian regime.

   Obama called the North "the most isolated, the most sanctioned, the most cut-off nation on Earth."

   "The kind of authoritarianism that exists there, you almost can't duplicate anywhere else. It's brutal and it's oppressive and as a consequence, the country can't really even feed its own people," Obama said. "Over time, you will see a regime like this collapse."

   Obama emphasized that the U.S. capacity to effect change in North Korea is limited because the communist nation has a 1-million-strong military as well as nuclear technologies and missiles. Moreover, South Korea would be "severely affected" if war breaks out on the Korean Peninsula, he said.

   "So the answer is not going to be a military solution. We will keep on ratcheting the pressure, but part of what's happening is that the environment that we're speaking in today, the Internet, over time is going to be penetrating this country," Obama said.

   "And it is very hard to sustain that kind of brutal authoritarian regime in this modern world. Information ends up seeping in over time and bringing about change, and that's something that we are constantly looking for ways to accelerate," he added.

   Obama made no mention of North Korea in his State of the Union address, though he vowed to make sure that "no foreign nation" will disrupt American computer networks in apparent reference to the North's alleged hack on Sony Pictures.

   After the FBI determined the North was responsible for the hack on Sony, Obama strongly condemned the attack and vowed to respond proportionally. Early this month, Obama authorized fresh sanctions on North Korean entities and officials, including the General Reconnaissance Bureau, Pyongyang's top spy agency.

   Many analysts agree that North Korea stands low in the U.S. priority list and that the Obama administration has little interest in resuming nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang. The U.S. has demanded Pyongyang take concrete steps demonstrating its denuclearization commitments before nuclear talks reopen.

   WASHINGTON, Jan. 23 (Yonhap)
   jschang@yna.co.kr
(END)

Friday, January 23, 2015

North Korea urges South to lift sanctions before talks can begin

Sometimes I want to say that north Korea has no idea how to negotiate.  Who in their right minds would think they can get something for nothing and can have their demands met before negotiations even begin or have their demands met just to start negotiations?

Then I remember how many times north Korea has been successful and the ROK, the US and the international community has been duped by north Korea.


North Korea urges South to lift sanctions before talks can begin

SEOUL Fri Jan 23, 2015 7:38am EST

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un delivers a New Year's address in this January 1, 2015 photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang. REUTERS/KCNA
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un delivers a New Year's address in this January 1, 2015 photo released by North Korea's Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) in Pyongyang.
CREDIT: REUTERS/KCNA
(Reuters) - North Korea on Friday demanded the lifting of sanctions, imposed by South Korea after a 2010 attack on one of its naval vessels, as a condition for resuming dialogue.
It was the first official response to the South's offer to talk, including discussions on resuming reunions of families separated during the 1950-53 civil war.
After a delegation of high-level North Korean officials made a surprise visit in October last year to the closing ceremony of the Asian Games, South Korea said it was willing to discuss the sanctions as a way to move forward.
The measures, imposed in May 2010 after a torpedo attack against a South Korean navy ship that killed 46 sailors, cut off most political and commercial exchanges with the North. The North denies it was responsible.
"If the South Korean government is sincerely interested in humanitarian issues, it should first remove the ban that was imposed for the purpose of confrontation," the North's KCNA news agency quoted a spokesman for the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea as saying.
The South's Unification Ministry, which handles inter-Korean affairs, said that lifting sanctions would first require "responsible action" from the North.
"It is regrettable that North Korea has linked the purely humanitarian issue of separated families to the May 24 measure, which is completely irrelevant," the ministry said in the emailed statement, referring to the South's sanctions.
North Korea, already heavily sanctioned by the United Nations for its missile and nuclear tests, is technically still at war with the South after the Korean War ended in a truce, not a peace treaty.
North Korea said this month it would suspend nuclear tests if the United States canceled its annual joint military drills with South Korea, which Pyongyang routinely describes as preparations for invasion.
The United States and South Korea rejected the call, saying the drills were defensive and have been conducted for decades without major incident.
The reunions, highly choreographed and emotional affairs between family members, most now in old age, had until last February not taken place since 2010.
(Reporting by Ju-min Park; Editing by Jack Kim and Nick Macfie)

Tuesday, January 20, 2015

Georgetown Security Studies Review 3:1 !3

The new issue of the Georgetown Security Studies Review has just been posted on line.


The Table of Contents is below.

This is the link to the GSSR main web site with other features:  http://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/


Georgetown Security Studies Review 3:1 !3

North Korea, ASEAN, and Denuclearization 4
Martin J. Cool
This paper explores the history of relations between North Korea and Southeast Asian nations
then seeks to find a synthesis between ASEAN’s preference for engagement and the United
States’ policy of isolation given the unique problem set that North Korean denuclearization
presents.

Shifting Opinions: Israel & the International Community 20
Michael Donovan
American and international opinions are shifting away from unconditionally backing Israel.
Perception of the conflict is evolving in terms of international legal norms, human rights, and the
morality of foreign occupation. This article explores that shift and outlines an opportunity for
American policymakers to harness this change of opinion, and perhaps bring Israeli
policymakers to the negotiating table.

Technology Domain Awareness: Building the Defense Innovation Base 33
Adam Jay Harrison, Jawad Rachami, & Christopher Zember
This article outlines the innovation imperative facing the U.S. Department of Defense and details
current and future plans pursued by the DOD Information Analysis Centers to develop a defense
innovation operating system that sustains the United States’ military-technology edge in the face
of persistent operational, technological, and fiscal volatility and uncertainty.

The Resilience of Profit-seeking Illicit Networks: The Case of the Arellano-
Félix Organization 49
Barbara Cedillo Lopez
It is important to understand why some profit seeking illicit networks have chosen to evade, coopt,
or confront government forces; and why the states choose to target some illicit networks
through repression, while they tolerate and even colluded with others. This paper presents a
typology of resilience for illicit networks, and uses an historical case study to test this typology.
Moroccan Jihadism in Europe: A Quantitative Analysis of Migration and

Terror Plots by Individuals of Moroccan Origin in Western Europe 71
Jeffrey D. Palmer
This essay provides an analysis of the quantitative properties of Moroccan migration patterns and
incidents of jihadist terrorism, whether disrupted, failed, or executed, by individuals of Moroccan
origin (i.e. first- and second-generation migrants) in Western Europe from 2001 to 2013.

The Sino-American Airpower Competition: A Net Assessment 82
James Nolan
This article seeks to determine where the U.S. stands vis-à-vis China’s airpower capabilities over
the next 15 to 20 years. It employs the net assessment framework, drawing from open source
data and existing literature currently available on both militaries. This analysis concludes the
United States will continue to hold an advantage in the air for the next 15 to 20 years.

Monday, January 19, 2015

Park calls for creating conditions for talks with N. Korea

I received the comments below in response to this from a Korea Hand who has probably forgot more about the ROK/US Alliance than the rest of us know.  I think this short paragraph does more to explain the importance of the ROK/US alliance than anything else we can read in official statements, from the press or the pundits.

The ROK-US Alliance is critical to President Park’s successful implementation of her unification policy, a policy mandated by the ROK’s 1987 Constitution (by type, not content, the latter being the individual President’s prerogative).  First, it defends the ROK people, territory and institutions by deterring North Korean aggression, albeit it only limits, not completely deters, NK provocations.  Secondly, it represents the commonly shared values of both the ROK and US in the concepts of democracy and free markets and the defense of those values.  Thirdly, the designation and manning of a US four-star to serve as the wartime commander of designated ROK and US forces amplifies the message of US commitment to the defense of the ROK, as does the bilateral manning of the ROK-US Combined Forces Command.  This is critical should NK deception be successful.  Fourthly, the US technical capabilities contribute to President Park’s awareness of NK deception in behavior, intent and negotiation through detection of inconsistent actions - not perfect, but critical.  Fifthly, it serves significantly as a consideration point in foreign investment into the ROK.  All US traders will tell you they calculate the efficacy of the alliance into their risk-vs-gain calculations when investing in the ROK, something other nations’ investors do as well.  There are many more points of consideration, but these have always been the main issues, regardless of the politics that distort, one way or another, their criticality.  President Park goes into any negotiation with NK with this kind of confidence.


---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: David Maxwell <David.Maxwell@georgetown.edu>
Date: Mon, Jan 19, 2015 at 10:29 AM
Subject: Park calls for creating conditions for talks with N. Korea
To:


This is where the alliance priority should be.  The South should absolutely be in the lead with the north.  It is really only the practical way to manage the situation with the north.  As long on President Parks has the foundation of the strong ROK/US Alliance she can have flexibility and agility in conducting diplomacy with the north.
   South Korean President Park Geun-hye on Monday called on officials to create conditions to allow North Korea to come forward for talks in the latest conciliatory gesture toward Pyongyang to jump-start stalled dialogue.

   Park also said the two Koreas should start substantial dialogue to lay the groundwork for their potential unification.

   The call came as North Korea has remained silent on South Korea's recent offer to ministerial talks in January to discuss such bilateral issues as the reunion of families separated by the 1950-53 Korean War.

   "I hope that you will make efforts to come up with conditions under which North Korea can respond," Park said in a meeting at the presidential office where she received a briefing on South Koreas' policy on North Korea, defense and foreign affairs.


   She did not elaborate on what she meant by conditions, though they appear to suggest that South Korea should take steps to stop its people from sending propaganda leaflets to North Korea.

   Park's thinly veiled request came days after North Korea's powerful National Defense Commission urged South Korea to clarify whether Seoul is serious about dialogue with Pyongyang or whether it will persist in the anti-North Korean leafleting campaign.

   The two Koreas last held high-level talks in February in 2014. They had agreed to hold high-level contact between late October and early November during a surprise visit to South Korea by a high-powered North Korean delegation. But the North later backtracked on the deal in protest of the leaflets.

   For years, North Korean defectors in the South and conservative activists have flown the leaflets to the North via balloons to help encourage North Koreans to eventually rise up against the Pyongyang regime.

   North Korea has repeatedly called for an end of the leafleting campaign that it claims insults its dignity. The issue has long been a constant source of tension between the two Koreas, which are still technically at war because the Korean War ended in a truce, not a peace treaty.

   South Korea has said there are no legal grounds to prevent its activists from floating the leaflets, citing freedom of expression. But it has also asked defectors to refrain from floating the leaflets.

   A local court ruled earlier this month that South Korean authorities can intervene and stop the leafleting campaign if there is a clear threat to the safety of South Koreans.

   In October, the two Koreas exchanged machine gun fire across the border after the North apparently tried to shoot down balloons carrying anti-Pyongyang leaflets. North Korea has repeatedly threatened to retaliate against the leafleting campaign.

   Also at the meeting, Park called on the military to maintain its readiness to defend against North Korea's possible provocations and to increase its capability to counter North Korea's asymmetric threats, including its cyber-attacks.

   The comments came after the U.S. slapped sanctions on North Korea over its alleged cyber-attack on Sony Pictures for its comedy film "The Interview," which depicts a plot to assassinate its leader Kim Jong-un.

   The FBI has determined that North Korea was behind the hacking. North Korea has denied any responsibility, although it described the attack as a "righteous deed."

   SEOUL, Jan. 19 (Yonhap)
   entropy@yna.co.kr
(END)

Gist of S. Korea's unification, foreign, defense policies for 2015

Good  talking points summery of the key policies of the ROK.

Gist of S. Korea's unification, foreign, defense policies for 2015

2015-01-19 10:00
   The following is the gist of South Korea's major inter-Korean, foreign and defense policies for 2015 unveiled jointly Monday by the Ministry of Unification, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and the Ministry of National Defense.


Inter-Korean relations
   -- Propose the blueprint for a unified peninsula in order to drum up public support for unification.

   -- Step up education for young students to better prepare them for future unification.

   -- Push for joint inter-Korean projects: a joint commemorative event marking the 70th anniversary of Koreas' independence from Japan's 1910-45 colonial rule and a trial-run of a train line linking the two Koreas.

   -- Push to set up Korean cultural centers in Seoul and Pyongyang and to jointly publish a handbook for Korean culture and living.

   -- Plan to advance the Kaesong Industrial Complex for further mutual benefits and build joint economic infrastructure for future unification.


Foreign affairs
   -- Strengthen strategic coordination to move forward N. Korea's nuclear and human rights issues.

   -- Push proactively for mini-lateral diplomacy within region.

   -- Make efforts to accelerate the realization of President Park Geun-hye's two visions for regional cooperation -- "the Northeast Asia Peace Cooperation Initiative" and "the Eurasia Initiative."

   -- Be actively engaged in diplomacy with the United Nations to improve situations on the peninsula to spearhead efforts to bring changes to geopolitical situations on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia.

   -- Promote international cooperation to ease pains resulting from the inter-Korean division.

   -- Pursue humanitarian diplomacy toward peaceful unification.

   -- Strengthen economic diplomacy that can contribute to inter-Korean unification.

   -- Broaden diplomatic networks with like-minded countries to help advance inter-Korean unification.

   -- Expand public diplomacy for unification.


Defense
   -- Maintain firm military readiness posture to guarantee strong foundation for national defense.

   -- Conduct practical-level education and training for service personnel.

   -- Improve welfare for servicemembers and reform barracks culture.

   -- Push for "creative national defense" to be fully prepared to meet future challenges.

   -- Strengthen defense capabilities to usher in the era of national reunification.

   SEOUL, Jan. 19 (Yonhap)