north Korea: Part I: A Dynamically Stable Regime

Sasha Mansourov remains bullish on north Korea in the long run believing there is potential for political and economic change and provides his indicators (personnel changes)  to signal such.  He does lay out some interesting leadership hypotheses.  But this excerpt I think gets it right.

Based on my evaluation of Kim’s first year in power, I judge that he reigns supreme. He proved to be a formidable opponent to be discounted only at one’s own peril. He has different ropes for different folks. He demonstrated swift ruthlessness in eliminating his potential enemies inside the royal palace and military barracks. As for his uncle Jang, I believe the young marshal will use him for as long as he has to, but then he will surely cut him off, probably without much regret, just like his father purged his own uncle Kim Yong Ju when Kim Jong Il deemed him as a threat to his own power bid in the mid-1970s. The latest successful satellite launch will further boost Kim Jong Un’s domestic legitimacy, increase his political capital, undermine potential critics, help him silence military discontent, and increase his international stature and bargaining power.

V/R

Dave

Part I: A Dynamically Stable Regime

By Alexandre Mansourov

http://38north.org/2012/12/amansourov121712/

Editors’ Note:

Beginning today, the first anniversary of Kim Jong Un’s assumption of power in North Korea, 38 North is publishing a three-part analytical series written by Dr. Alexandre Y. Mansourov assessing the leadership changes during Kim’s initial year in office.

• The first article, published today, addresses three fundamental questions: who really governs the country, how stable is the current North Korean regime, and what lies over the horizon for the leadership transition?
• Part two will analyze key dynamics within the Kim family, including the rising influence of Kim Jong Un’s uncle Jang Song Thaek and the emergence of Kim’s wife, Ri Sol Ju as a factor in family politics, as well as the regime’s efforts to preserve and modernize the Kim monarchy. The article will also discuss how the regime seeks to strengthen the socialist party-state, reinvigorate the party’s central leadership institutions, tighten the party’s control over mass public organizations, and watchfully manage the party’s center-periphery relations.
• Part three will analyze the main drivers and direction behind Kim Jong Un’s transformation of the government he inherited from his father, focusing on his overhaul of the national security establishment and party-military relations, restructuring of the socio-economic team, and adjustment of the foreign policy team.

Dr. Mansourov’s research and analysis is based solely on publicly available materials. The views presented here are his own and do not reflect the official position of any government, departments, or agencies.

Part I: A Dynamically Stable Regime

A year into Kim Jong Un’s rule, the formal father-to-son succession is over. But the political transition from the Kim Jong Il-centered totalitarian one-man rule to a more complex authoritarian governing system—so far centered on the new leader—still continues. North Korean leadership politics has become as vibrant, hard to predict, and somewhat open-ended as it was during past political transitions in North Korea, especially in the late 1940s, early 1970s, and mid-1990s, leading some Western pundits to question the stability of the current regime.

Although the domestic political situation in Pyongyang is no longer static, I judge it to be dynamically stable and conducive to further development towards a more responsive, accountable, and efficient government. Kim Jong Un and the forces standing behind him shattered the political status-quo inherited from his father last December with bold and speedy actions aimed at discarding the legacy governing system, rejuvenating and revamping the country’s national security establishment, restructuring its economic policy-making apparatus, readjusting the foreign policy team, and reshuffling local governance elites.

The political transition—still ongoing—has a lot of moving parts and is unfolding in fits and starts. Its key actors are not necessarily visible and their intentions are not always clear. It is still uncertain who will be left standing when the dust finally settles. Some personnel changes appear to be quite natural, especially where health and age offer helpful excuses. Others are unusual and even unprecedented, given the speed and manner with which they were reportedly implemented. Many personnel developments are the products of jockeying for power by various players. Personal loyalties command a special premium. Job performance and substantive knowledge rarely matter. Corruption is a double-edged sword: only those who have mastered it succeed.

(Continued at the link below)

http://38north.org/2012/12/amansourov121712/