U.S. official: North Korea likely deceived U.S., allies before launching rocket

Yes, we did get deceived. North Korea depends on denial and deception as a fundamental method of operations.  But we should did get deceived this time.

We should realize that the north understands our surveillance methods and that if we can see something it is because they want us to see it.  They wanted us to see that they were dismantling the missile. It is also likely that they had a good idea of how we would react to their statements and what our ISR could observe and they provided the picture and the information that would confirm our analysis bias (e.g., the north continues to have technical problems so it was very plausible that a delay was needed) 

But why the deception?  To reduce our ability to observe and gain data from the launch?  To "protect" the launch? – did fear the US or Japan would try to shoot it down? (note I did not include the ROK as a threat to the north's missile).  Did they simply just want to embarrass us?

But again we must understand that the north will use denial and deception in everything it does and we must look for it and be prepared to deal with it.

V/R
Dave

December 27th, 2012

05:28 PM ET

U.S. official: North Korea likely deceived U.S., allies before launching rocket

By Barbara Starr

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/27/u-s-official-north-korea-likely-deceived-u-s-allies-before-launching-rocket/?hpt=hp_t3

North Korea likely engaged in a deliberate campaign of deception before a December 12 long-range missile launch, catching the United States and its Asian allies "off guard," according to a U.S. official with direct knowledge of analysis of the incident conducted by U.S. military and intelligence agencies.

The official told CNN that American and Japanese military ships and missile defenses were fully operational and protecting land, sea and airspace on December 12, but that the launch was a surprise when it actually happened.

"We had our dukes up, operationally, but we were caught off guard," the official said.

"The clues point to a concerted effort to deceive us," the official said. The analysis was ordered in the wake of the launch to determine what exactly happened and how much the U.S. intelligence knew at the time.

The official said one conclusion was that while missile defenses can fully protect against a North Korean attack, the North Koreans have shown they can counter U.S. measures to gather intelligence about what they are up to.

"Look, they know when our satellites are passing overhead," the official said. It's believed the North Koreans essentially manipulated the launch so U.S. intelligence satellites simply would not be overhead and able to see what was happening.

The most likely scenario, the official said, was that North Korea wasn't telling the truth when it announced several days before the launch that there were technical problems with the missile.

According to the official, the intelligence analysis found that:

(Continued at the link below)

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/27/u-s-official-north-korea-likely-deceived-u-s-allies-before-launching-rocket/?hpt=hp_t3