Planning for the Future: Conditions of Combined ROK-U.S. Military Intervention in Potential DPRK Contingencies

For anyone who is interested in thinking about the unthinkable – north Korean regime collapse, I recommend adding this to the reading list.  Professor Bechtol is one of the few academics who looks hard at this issue and he is also unique because he brings an expert practitioner's background to the problem.

V/R

Dave

The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis

Vol. 24, No. 4, December 2012, 489–502

Planning for the Future: 

Conditions of Combined ROK-U.S. Military 

Intervention in Potential DPRK Contingencies

Bruce E. Bechtol Jr.*

Angelo State University, Texas, U.S.A.

http://www.kida.re.kr/data/kjda/06_Bruce%20E_Bechtol.pdf

This paper addresses the key concerns of a joint/combined ROK-U.S. military

operation in the case of a necessary contingency in North Korea. As such, it focuses

on the necessary military issues, some of the likely scenarios where these issues

would arise (there are simply too many to address them all in this paper), and the

likely political factors in South Korea, the United States, and the international

community that would be at play during this time period. China is likely to be the

“elephant in the room,” though diplomacy with Beijing will be key and the Chinese

are unlikely to agree to anything unless it is very clear to the world that North

Korea is obviously in the throes of collapse, civil war, or complete anarchy. Any

contingency operation into North Korea will be a very large, very expensive

operation. South Korea simply does not have all of the resources or the military

capabilities to carry out such an operation on its own—but it should lead any effort

to intervene in North Korea because ultimately this is a Korea issue. A variety of

factors, particularly the instability of the government, are likely to ultimately

bring about a catastrophe in the DPRK. When this happens, a unified Korea,

under a transparent democracy with its capital in Seoul, is the only viable option

for the Korean people.

Keywords: ROK-U.S. alliance, North Korean military, reunification, contingency

planning, North Korean collapse

(The entire 14 page paper can be downloaded from KIDA at this link)

http://www.kida.re.kr/data/kjda/06_Bruce%20E_Bechtol.pdf