Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Seoul develops index gauging N. Korea's stability

Interesting initiative and I am gratified to see the ROKG looking seriously at north Korean instability and potential for regime collapse.  There is still not better framework for indications and warnings that Bob Collins' Seven Phases of north Korea Collapse or Patterns of Collapse.  Whether those currently in the ROK-US Combined Forces Command know this or not, much of the indications and warnings in effect today are based on Bob's work.  He was truly cutting edge when he wrote his thesis while attending Korean graduate school.   This seminal work provides a way to frame the problem and ask the right questions to determine what is happening and what might happen in the north.  I would be leery of indices and mathematical analysis (they could be useful but I would not depend on them for forecasting and decision-making).  Lastly the idea that this will be outsourced to a private firm in order to have impartiality seems to me an abdication of government responsibility.  Professional analysts should be able to provide objective and impartial views.  But if it must be outsourced, I would recommend the ROKG hire Bob Collins to advise them.

2013/01/29 16:56 KST

Seoul develops index gauging N. Korea's stability
SEOUL, Jan. 29 (Yonhap) -- South Korea has developed an index gauging the level of stability in North Korea but it has yet to decide whether to release the index's figures to the public, a government official said Tuesday.

   The Ministry of Unification, which deals with inter-Korean relations, has recently completed the development of the so-called North Korea condition index, an official said. The project to develop the index began in 2010.

   The 100 point-scale index, designed to measure the overall stability of the country, assesses three key conditions -- risk of instability, regime change and crisis -- of the largely unpredictable and reclusive country. The index assess stability and recent transformations as well as the likelihood of a crisis developing in the fields of politics, economy, social affairs and the North military.

   The closer the number is to 100, the higher the risk of instability in the North.
(Continued at the link below)

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