NightWatch: north Korea

Mr. McCleary highlights the January 2d message from the north Korean National Defense Commission which may have been written prior to Madam Park's election.  However, I disagree with Mr. McCleary's assessment that this shows that the NDC disagrees with Kim Jong-un.  I do of course think vigilance is warranted as always but I do not think there is the split between the military and Kim Jong-un that Mr. McCleary and others think exists. Mr. McCleary's continued assessment that there are factions within the senior ranks of the regime continue to surprise me because I think that Kim Jong-un has effectively consolidated power.  But I am happy that Mr. McCreary has identified the NDC statement because of course the mainstream media has not reported on it very heavily because it counters what many people want to believe, e.g., that north is going to change and be less hostile toward the South.  While these statements seem incompatible to us, I think it is not unusual for two different statements to be made as I think the regime has a better understanding of target audiences than we think.  Kim Jong-un's may be for external consumption but the NDC is focused internally and the regime understands that the NDC statement will not generate much external or international review because the international community would rather hope for the positive.  This of course leads to analysis that there is a split in the leadership of the regime and I think that is a fundamental misunderstanding of how the regime works (and survives).

V/R

Dave

NightWatch

For the night of 4 January 2013

North Korea: A day after leader Kim Jong-un delivered his New Year's address urging reunification and conciliation, the National Defense Commission (NDC) published a very different message. On 2 January a spokesman for the most powerful organ of state in North Korea said,

"We should raise our awareness of the confrontation commotions against fellow countrymen happening at the beginning the new year. Nothing but war will be incurred by confrontation against fellow countrymen. This is an historical lesson that the past North-South relations clearly show us."

The statement contained three resolutions by the commission which reprise long standing warnings.

Comment: The most interesting feature of the NDC statement is that it communicates a threatening tone that is precisely opposite that conveyed by Kim a day later. The obvious message is that Kim does not speak for the NDC.

The second prominent feature is that it excoriates former President Lee, but does not mention newly elected President Pak. The obvious inference is that the NDC statement was canned before the elections in the Republic of Korea.

The NDC statement was not updated by the results of the South Korean presidential elections before release. The North's media coordination is awry. The fact that the National Defense Commission issued a statement of defense policy in its own right and independent of Kim is ominous because it means that the Kim family, the Chang family and the Party bureaucrats do not have the final say on matters of defense policy. This apparent bifurcation justifies increased vigilance by the allies.

(Continued at the ink below)

http://www.kforcegov.com/Services/IS/NightWatch/NightWatch_13000003.aspx