I am not so optimistic in terms of north Korean reforms. I think we will see a continuation of the regime's "Image First Politics" and I think Kim Jong-un's New Year's speech illustrates that.
V/R
Dave
What Lies Ahead for N.Korea in 2013?
The year 2013 marks the 60th anniversaries of the end of the 1950-53 Korean War and the signing of the U.S.-South Korean Mutual Defense Treaty. It will also be the first year of South Korea's new president and the new leaders of Japan and China. U.S. President Barack Obama, meanwhile, starts his second term in the White House. Here the Chosun Ilbo takes a look into the crystal ball with the 10 experts to see what all this means for North Korea.
◆ U.S.-N.Korea Talks
Many experts believe Obama will seek talks with North Korea in order to revitalize his poor foreign-policy record. John Kerry, who has been named as the next U.S. secretary of state, has been a proponent of dealing with North Korea through dialogue. "Obama needs some concrete results in foreign policy," said Lee Soo-seok at the Institute for National Security Strategy. "He will seek talks with North Korea later in the year."
Cho Bong-hyun of the IBK Economic Research Institute said Kerry will spend the early part of his tenure just watching North Korea, but he will then become more active and seek dialogue to prevent it from conducting an additional nuclear test. President-elect Park Geun-hye has also called for the resumption of dialogue with North Korea.
"If North Korea pushes ahead with its third nuclear test, the U.S. will apply tremendous pressure on the North because it now has more military capacity available after withdrawing from Afghanistan and Iraq," said Namkoong Young at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.
Experts said chances of an inter-Korean summit are slim in the first year of the new Park Geun-hye administration. "As long as North Korea refuses to apologize for the sinking of the Navy corvette Cheonan and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, only ministerial talks will be possible," said Ryu Dong-ryeol at the Police Science Institute.
◆ U.S.-N.Korea Talks
Many experts believe Obama will seek talks with North Korea in order to revitalize his poor foreign-policy record. John Kerry, who has been named as the next U.S. secretary of state, has been a proponent of dealing with North Korea through dialogue. "Obama needs some concrete results in foreign policy," said Lee Soo-seok at the Institute for National Security Strategy. "He will seek talks with North Korea later in the year."
Cho Bong-hyun of the IBK Economic Research Institute said Kerry will spend the early part of his tenure just watching North Korea, but he will then become more active and seek dialogue to prevent it from conducting an additional nuclear test. President-elect Park Geun-hye has also called for the resumption of dialogue with North Korea.
"If North Korea pushes ahead with its third nuclear test, the U.S. will apply tremendous pressure on the North because it now has more military capacity available after withdrawing from Afghanistan and Iraq," said Namkoong Young at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies.
Experts said chances of an inter-Korean summit are slim in the first year of the new Park Geun-hye administration. "As long as North Korea refuses to apologize for the sinking of the Navy corvette Cheonan and the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island, only ministerial talks will be possible," said Ryu Dong-ryeol at the Police Science Institute.
(Continued at the link below)
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