Saturday, September 14, 2013

With the world distracted, trouble is brewing in North Korea

The problem is that China feels that the current north Korean charm offensive is sufficient to warrant re-starting the nuclear talks (see the article that says that the Chinese military told Jim Miller that see the north Korean are changing).  But we need more time and more evidence to judge if the charm offensive is for real or not just part of the normal cycle of provocations.  And of course for it to be real would require the commitment up front, to include action, to eliminate nuclear weapons before we can resume the 6 party talks (and of course we all know that the regime will not and cannot give up the key to regime survival which in its calculus is its nuclear capability).

And as we all know coming back to the 6 party talks will mean legitimatizing the north as a nuclear power as they are going to demand that they be allowed to negotiate as a nuclear power and will want to participate in nuclear arms reduction or strategic arms limitation talks in the same way as the US and USSR did during the Col War.

And lastly, China's recommended course of action for the negotiations is for the US (and the ROK) to make all the concessions to north in the hopes that the regime will commit to denuclearization.  This of course would be very much like the 1994 Agreed Framework and we know how well the north lived up to that agreement.  China-US cooperation from the Chinese perspective is the US giving all the concessions first and in good faith while cooperation from the US perspective is China and the US applying the combination of  the right pressure with the right incentives for the north to not only agree but to actually end its nuclear program.

A provocation is coming.  Yes the world is distracted.  However, as I have mentioned, things may be very different when the next one occurs with President Park now in charge.  I am afraid that the north will be in for a real wake-up call when the ROK military rapidly responds with decisive force at the time and place of the provocation.  It will set the regime back on its heels because it will not have a play in its play book for that.  Yes there will be risk of miscalculation by the arrogant and inexperienced Kim Jong-un but I also think it will cause strategic paralysis because he will not be able to find a play in the play book.  And it must be done because if the ROK does not respond decisively then the cycle of provocations will continue forever.  This could change the calculus on the peninsula if the north's provocation is on a sufficient scale and the ROK's response in defense is of equal scale and rapidly inflicted.  Then perhaps we might see the regime realize that it needs to conduct a real charm offensive in good faith  (I can only hope but I will not ever hold my breath for the north).

Finally, per the last paragraph I think that the ROK is taking the lead and correctly so.  I do not think it needs to go right to the nuclear issue.  But President Park's trustpolitik is having an effect having reached agreements on Kaesong and separated families and eventually tourism (agreements that still have to be backed up with action by the north).  But her policy is more like a charm offensive with strength.  She is extending the olive branch but she has her hand on her sword at her side.  If there is any hope of managing the situation on the peninsula it will be because President Park is in charge and in the lead.  We should support her not because we are distracted but because she is more likely to achieve more than either China or the US in the long run.
V/R
Dave

With the world distracted, trouble is brewing in North Korea

The Korea Herald
Asia News Network September 14, 2013 1:00 am

US President Barack Obama and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping heightened hopes for resolving North Korea's nuclear problem when they pledged to work together to denuclearise the recalcitrant regime during their summit in June.

South Korean President Park Geun-hye's meetings with the leaders of the two superpowers, which preceded and followed the Obama-Xi talks within a month, seemed to have helped consolidate the momentum toward the resolution of the issue that has threatened security on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia for decades.

As cautioned by some experts, however, the road to North Korea's denuclearisation remains bumpy. With the North having taken no significant steps to demonstrate its sincerity, Washington and Beijing are divided over whether to resume the six-party talks aimed at dismantling Pyongyang's nuclear arsenal. The dialogue has been stalled since 2008. 

China has said the multilateral discussion that also involves the two Koreas, Japan and Russia still remains an important platform to persuade North Korea to give up its nuclear programmes and settle other relevant security issues. The US has followed South Korea's stance that it is meaningless to reopen the long-stalled talks unless North Korea shows a clear willingness to abandon its nuclear arms through concrete actions.

Seoul and Washington apparently want Beijing to put further pressure on Pyongyang to withdraw its demand for recognition as a nuclear power and return to credible and authentic negotiations aimed at its denuclearisation. While having managed to push North Korea towards resumption of the talks, China seems to have had difficulty getting its intractable neighbour to change its stance on denuclearisation. Recent satellite images suggested that the North may have begun reactivating its nuclear reactor in Yongbyon.

In a recent move aimed at creating a breakthrough, China has proposed holding a gathering of officials and academics from nations involved in the six-party negotiations in Beijing next week. Seoul and Washington have also remained cautious on sending senior government officials to the informal forum.
(Continued at the link below)

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