US Warns of North Korean Chemical Weapons Threat

If chemical weapons are an integral part of the north Korean war plan (which I think they are) then there is little that can be done to deter Kim Jong-un's decision to use them.  They believe it will help them achieve victory so they will do whatever they think necessary to win.  They will not limit themselves based on any deterrent actions by the US or international community.  We are going to have to be prepared to fight and win in a chemically contaminated environment.  

But in my opinion it is difficult to compare the two because north Korea is not fighting an internal civil war so it is difficult to make a fair comparison.  But in terms of control and command which my Korean mentors emphasize is the correct way to describe the north Korean C2 system, nothing happens in the north in terms of military actions and provocations that is not controlled and commanded by Kim Jong-un.  Therefore deterrence has to be focused on influencing him. 

But the north's use of chemical weapons will be very different than Syria's as I said. It will use them in wartime with the expectation that they will support successful military operations and it is unlikely that our actions in Syria will deter that kind of use by the regime.  It may very well be an integral part of their planning and it knows that it will be so pounded by ROK/US forced whether it  uses chemical weapons or not that I am sure the regime has determined that if there is a war it must use all means at its disposal in an attempt to be victorious.  To borrow and paraphrase from a former US SECSTATE "what good it is to have a military (capability) if you are not going to use it."  We have to expect that the north will use chemical weapons on the peninsula and whatever we do in Syria will not change that.

However, what does or does not happen in Syria will affect North Korean strategic decision making and it's broader reading of US will in terms of deterrence beyond the use of chemical weapons.  And I think that interpretation can be summed up as "dithering does not equal deterrence." If we were thinking of acting in Syria in order to have a deterrent effect on north Korea (in addition to achieving whatever our objectives are in Syria) we would have needed to have acted swiftly and decisively with no dithering.  While our political situation would not have supported that we have to try to understand how our actions (and inaction) are interpreted by the north.  We are fortunate however because the ROK, led by President Park,  has shown the will to respond to the north (which will be tested at the next provocation) so together the ROK/US Alliance is capable of deterring the north at this time (as long as we do not so something to weaken the Alliance).  As I have mentioned in previous posts, we are fortunate that President Park is in office because her leadership buys some time and space for our Administration in terms of strategy on the Korean Peninsula.

V/R
Dave

US Warns of North Korean Chemical Weapons Threat

BEIJING September 10, 2013 (AP)

By CHRISTOPHER BODEEN Associated Press

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/us-warns-north-korean-chemical-weapons-threat-20207811

The United States is trying to enlist Beijing's support for military action against Syria by arguing that it would help deter North Korea from using chemical weapons and threatening security in China's neighborhood, a U.S. official said Tuesday.

China expressed support, meanwhile, for a Russian plan to avoid military intervention in the Middle Eastern country by getting the Syrian government to agree to put its chemical weapons under international supervision and eventually destroy them.

"As long as it eases the tension and helps maintain Syrian and regional peace and stability, and helps politically settle the issue, the global community should consider it positively," Foreign Ministry spokesman Hong Lei told reporters in Beijing.

U.S. Under Secretary of Defense for Policy James Miller, who was in Beijing to meet with Chinese officials, said earlier Thursday that a retaliatory strike against the Syrian government would uphold the international norm that chemical weapons must not be used.

Miller said he emphasized to his Chinese counterpart that lowering the threshold for chemical weapons use could put U.S. troops at risk and threaten China's security and that of the entire globe.

"I emphasized the massive chemical weapons arsenal that North Korea has and that we didn't want to live in a world in which North Korea felt that the threshold for chemical weapons usage had been lowered," Miller told reporters at a briefing following his talks Monday with Wang Guanzhong, the Chinese army's deputy chief of staff.

It was strongly in China's interest that there be a "strong response to Assad's clear and massive use of chemical weapons," Miller said he told Wang.

China has joined with Russia in blocking action against Syria at the United Nations Security Council and strongly opposes strikes on Syria by the U.S. or its allies in response to an Aug. 21 chemical attack near Damascus that the U.S. says killed more than 1,400 people. Beijing has called for political talks to end the violence that has killed an estimated 100,000 people and displaced 2 million more.

Hong said China was hosting a visit starting Tuesday by Syrian opposition leaders for talks with Chinese officials. He said they were from the National Coalition for Dialogue, apparently one of a number of smaller opposition groups whose sizes, memberships and alliances are in constant flux.

China has hosted delegations from both the opposition and government since the start of the Syrian conflict nearly two years ago, telling both that it hoped for negotiations leading to a process of national reconciliation.

While China remains North Korea's most important ally, it has repeatedly expressed concerns about the regime's threat to regional stability and has sought to coax Pyongyang back to six-nation nuclear disarmament talks — so far unsuccessfully. Beijing joined the international community in tightening sanctions against the North over a banned missile launch and nuclear test that again raised the specter of armed conflict on the Korean Peninsula just across the Yellow Sea from China.

(Continued at the link below)

http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/us-warns-north-korean-chemical-weapons-threat-20207811