From Georgetown Security Studies Program Professor Keir Lieber.

V/R
Dave

"States Will Not Give Nuclear Weapons to Terrorists"

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/23385/states_will_not_give_nuclear_weapons_to_terrorists.html

Policy Brief, Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy School

September 2013

Authors: Keir A. Lieber, Daryl Press

Belfer Center Programs or Projects: Quarterly Journal: International Security

This policy brief is based on "Why States Won't GiveNuclear Weapons to Terrorists," which appears in theSummer 2013 issue of International Security.

BOTTOM LINES

• States Won't Give Nuclear Weapons to Terrorists. Giving a nuclear weapon to terrorists would be as suicidal as launching a nuclear strike directly. Evidence shows that guilty terror groups in normal high-casualty attacks are almost always identified. Attribution of nuclear terrorism would be even easier; tracing a guilty group to its state sponsor would be simple. The fear of nuclear attack by proxy is unfounded.

• Nuclear Terrorism Would Not Remain Anonymous. Seventy-three percent of past high-casualty terrorist attacks have been traced back to the perpetrators. More important, 97 percent of moderate- and high-fatality attacks conducted on U.S. territory or that of a major U.S. ally were attributed. Furthermore, the suspect list of state sponsors would be short: few countries sponsor terrorism; and of the few that do, only Pakistan has nuclear weapons or enough fissile material to manufacture one.

• Fear of Nuclear Handoff Does Not Justify Costly Military Action. The fear that Iran will transfer nuclear weapons or materials to terrorists does not warrant costly steps like military action to prevent proliferation. To be persuasive, arguments for military strikes need to be based on other potential negative consequences of proliferation.

• Stop Understating U.S. Nuclear Attribution Capabilities. The United States has gaps in its "nuclear forensics" capabilities, which should be addressed. The strength of U.S. attribution capabilities, however, lies elsewhere—in the day-to-day intelligence gathering that routinely thwarts other terror strikes. History shows that U.S. attribution capabilities are very strong, and saying otherwise undermines deterrence.

STATES WON'T GIVE NUCLEAR WEAPONS TO TERRORISTS

(Continued at the link below and the full article can be downloaded there)

http://belfercenter.ksg.harvard.edu/publication/23385/states_will_not_give_nuclear_weapons_to_terrorists.html