Actually I think not, at least not a deliberate attack to execute its complete campaign plan to unify the Peninsula (but of course a miscalculation is always possible). He may of course conduct a provocation that may be a kinetic attack (e.g., naval battle or artillery attack such as at Y-P Do); however, based on the statements coming out of the Korean Workers Party meeting I think that the Kim Regime's face saving will be in the form of propaganda that will state that by ratcheting up tensions and engendering the response that it has, the north will claim that the international community is acknowledging that it is in fact a nuclear state. It will say that only because of its nuclear weapons with the Alliance and the US respond as it did using its most advanced weapons systems as a show of force because it considers the north a nuclear power and thus a peer. While this may in fact help Kim to save face and might be the off ramp that he needs to de-escalate the situation we must also expect that in the future the north will try to negotiate and deal with the international community as it perceives a nuclear state would. Of course we should never acknowledge it as a nuclear power even a de facto one. As Bruce Bennett has said it is a non-compliant, usage nuclear experimenter and nuclear proliferator.
N.K. leader may attack to save face: U.S. Lawmaker
Published : 2013-04-01 08:52
Updated : 2013-04-01 08:52
Updated : 2013-04-01 08:52
With North Korea churning out military threats, a key concern is that its young leader Kim Jong-un may reach a point of no return in provocative steps, a U.S. congressman said Sunday.
Rep. Peter King (R-NY), former chairman of the House Homeland Security Committee, said North Korea's statements may not be an "empty threat."
"Kim Jong-un is trying to establish himself. He's trying to be the tough guy. He is 28, 29 years old, and he keeps going further and further out, and I don't know if he can get himself back in," he said in an interview with ABC News.
"So my concern would be that he may feel to save face he has to launch some sort of attack on South Korea, or some base in the Pacific," said King, who now sits on the House intelligence and homeland security committees.
He described the North Korean regime as "more like an organized crime family running a territory."
North Korea has ratcheted up its threats to launch nuclear attacks on the U.S. and stage a war against South Korea. It also warned that it could shut down the inter-Korean industrial complex in Kaesong, just north of the border of the two sides.
The U.S. has responded with related calls for Pyongyang to calm down and by showing off its available firepower.
The Pentagon dispatched Japan-based F-22 Raptor stealth fighters for the ongoing South Korea-U.S. joint military drills after sending B-52 Stratofortress and B-2 Spirit bombers, both of which are capable of carrying nuclear bombs, to the Korean Peninsula.
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