Thursday, April 18, 2013

Myanmar today is guide for NK of tomorrow

It is interesting that China's The People's Daily would make a similar argument as the US for north Korea to follow the "Burma Model."  But the author makes similar mistakes we make in the west.  The north is likely not interested in what is best for any other country, the region or the international community.  Although it is likely that the north trusts China more than the US I would say that they do not trust China that much more.  I think these statements could have been written in the west.

Applying the same ideology to North Korea, we would find that an open North Korea would be more beneficial to China,

The significance of North Korea's openness is not less than that of Myanmar. The economic revival of the Korean Peninsula will not only serve as a boost to the development of Northeast Asia, but also stimulate the prosperity of Russia's far-east as well. No one is willing to spoil this opportunity by using a nuclear bomb.

This statement also confirms the north fears that it will be the economic and geopolitical battleground contested by the major powers.  (Confirms the Korean proverb of being a shrimp among whales).

For sure, North Korea with an open society, and the involvement of the US, South Korea and Japan will bring about troubles and problems for China. But these fears will not be conducive to China's progress when dealing with these powers. 

I just do not think the argument by the Chinese for the north adopting a "Burma Model" will have any more influence on the Kim Family Regime that a similar argument being made by the US.

Myanmar today is guide for NK of tomorrow
Global Times | 2013-4-17 21:18:01 
By Ding Gang

The sanctions put on Myanmar by Western countries caused at least two phenomena: Myanmar's national economy was suffocated, and its dependence on China became stronger.

These phenomena turned out to be the decisive reason why Myanmar carried out reform and opening-up afterward in exchange for the sanctions being lifted.

During the sanction period, China provided extensive aid and helped develop infrastructure such as hydroelectric stations, some of which were finally approved by the Myanmese government though seeing some opposition.

These projects have benefited the people of Myanmar. For example, the Yeywa power station, which was built on Chinese concessional loans, has relieved the high pressure caused by the growing demand for electricity in Yangon.

However, Myanmar is still alert to its northern neighbor. The former military junta, though realizing the importance of keeping balance with China in terms of economy and politics, was left with no choice under the Western sanctions.

Myanmar's decision to open up, on the one hand, will accommodate the requirements from the West for more support; on the other hand, it will add weight to its attempt to balance an over-dependence on China.

The above two purposes directly contributed to the incident of the Myitsone dam. The stranded project played a significant role in lifting Western sanctions, and as a result, more capital from the US and Europe may come in, elbowing China out to an unfair position.

However, this unexpected loss will not change the fact that a reformed and open-minded Myanmar will increasingly stabilize economic trade with China.

They will not become adversaries as expected by some.

The revival of Myanmar will enliven the whole of Southeast Asia, promoting the development of India and Bangladesh, and expanding the radius of Sino-ASEAN cooperation to the south.

Applying the same ideology to North Korea, we would find that an open North Korea would be more beneficial to China, even though problems like Myitsone might occur.
(Continued at the link below)

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