Obama unlikely to seek 'creative new approach' on Pyongyang: experts

Although we can be critical of all US administrations in regards to policy toward north Korea, one thing I think we should keep in mind is that there have been many creative approaches to the north by both the US and the ROK over the past 6 decades.  As Denny Roy says the ball is in the north's court.   But the ball always has been in the north's court.  The problem is that the north has never come to play – or if it has come to play it has not played by common internationally accepted rules.  It plays by its own rules in its own game and I do not think that the Administration can really come up with much in the way of a creative new approach.  If anything the Administration needs to be ready to exploit opportunities that might be presented by the north but I do not think it is time to propose anything new.  Below are some key points I recommended in 2004 for considerations for developing policy and strategy toward north Korea.  As I note below at the time a recommendation was to 'repair the Alliance." Now it is correct to say "sustain the Alliance."

Key Points:

·      Ensure that an effective defensive capability remains in place until the “Korea Question” is resolved

·      Method for developing a combined strategy

(1) Consultations at the political and military level between the ROKG and USG. 

(2) Increased high level contacts. 

(3) Establishment of a combined planning group (Korea Strategy Group (KSG)) with permanent NSC level members that meet on a rotating basis in Washington and Seoul.

• Repair the alliance : This will take a concerted effort by the President and senior US leadership.  Must come to agreement on the divergent ROK and US policies (sunshine policy versus regime change).  They are not mutually exclusive if you do not use the Iraq/Afghanistan models for regime change. (Note this was a 2004 proposal – the Alliance has been repaired and is currently as strong as it has ever been – this is better stated as Sustain the Alliance)

• Proposed mutually acceptable strategic end state: A stable, secure, peaceful, economically vibrant, non-nuclear peninsula, reunified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people.

            This end state implies regime change.  But it must come from within.  Most importantly while the US desires regime change it has not prepared for it.  Fundamental to the strategy is that near term crises must be managed (and exploited for possible opportunities) while the Alliance prepares the foundation for a post Kim Family Regime era.

V/R

Dave

2012/11/08 07:24 KST

Obama unlikely to seek 'creative new approach' on Pyongyang: experts

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/northkorea/2012/11/08/26/0401000000AEN20121108000200315F.HTML

By Lee Chi-dong

WASHINGTON, Nov. 7 (Yonhap) -- The Barack Obama administration is unlikely to push for major changes in its strategy on North Korea in its second term to begin in January, experts here said Wednesday.

   They said Washington is expected to continue to test Pyongyang's seriousness on denuclearization, while concentrating efforts on domestic and other urgent international affairs, including the volatile Middle East.

   "So the United States will likely not put much energy into a creative new approach for breaking the nuclear and security stalemate with Pyongyang," Denny Roy, the senior researcher at the Hawaii-based East-West Center, said.

   He pointed out that the ball is in North Korea's court.

(Continued at the above link)