Tuesday, November 6, 2012

'A Period of Persistent Conflict:' Why the United States will never have another peacetime president.


Quite a prediction here.  

But I have to quibble with the SOF information. These large aggregate numbers are misleading and no one should get the impression that there are 67,000 special operations forces available for employment around the world.   Instead of talking about SOCOM going from 30,000 to 67,000 (which is probably more than a slight exaggeration because I believe that in 2001 we had a much higher number than 30,000 I believe) we should really look at the growth of the operational forces (e.g., SF ODAs were at an authorized number of 270 in 2001 and in the 2006 QDR they were directed to grow by 90 ODAs and that growth will be complete when the last newly formed battalion is fully mission capable in 2013.  The SEAL Platoon growth numbers are much smaller  (as a comparison there about 4900 operational "Green Berets" on A and B Teams and 768 operational SEALs).  The huge growth in aggregate numbers of USSOCOM are in enabling and support capabilities.

Excerpt: Special Operations Forces (SOF): Since September 11, Special Operations Command (SOCOM) has more than doubled in size and budget from some 30,000 troops and $2.2 billion in 2001 to 67,000 and $10.5 billion today. 

Why the United States will never have another peacetime president.

BY MICAH ZENKO | NOVEMBER 6, 2012

In January 2007, with no public debate, congressional hearings, or news coverage, the United States intervened militarily in another country: Somalia.

On December 24, 2006, supported by U.S. tactical intelligence, military training, and "less than a dozen" special operations forces on the ground, Ethiopia had invaded Somalia with the goal of unseating the ruling Council of Islamic Courts (CIC). As the Ethiopian ground offensive quickly overwhelmed CIC defenses surrounding the capital of Mogadishu, Somali militants and al-Qaeda affiliates fled south. Some were tracked by U.S. Predator drones and cell phone intercepts.

Two weeks later, a U.S. Air Force Special Operations AC-130 gunshipflying out of eastern Ethiopia fired at a convoy of suspected militants near the village of Ras Kamboni in southern Somalia. The targets were senior al Qaeda operatives allegedly involved in the East African U.S. embassy bombings in August 1998. However, Ethiopian troops and U.S. special operations forces that arrived after the attack confirmed that the targets were not in the convoy, although ten other suspected Somali militants were killed. As an American official lateracknowledged, "Frankly, I don't think we know who we killed."
After news broke of the U.S. military involvement in Somalia, Sen. Robert Byrd had the followingexchange with Gen. Peter Pace, then the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, during a Armed Services Committee hearing:

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