As I wrote in March and posted on my blog here on June 6, the bar for success of the Singapore summit was pretty low: http://maxoki161.
However, despite the above I think the summit will likely occur and success is a low bar with three simple objectives:1. “Meet and greet” to look KJU in the eye and allow the POTUS and Kim to lay out positions.2. Agree to allow expert representatives to meet and work on a process for dismantlement of the north's nuclear program without ending sanctions until there is substantive and verifiable action by the north.3. Agree to a follow-up meeting to discuss results of expert representative meetings (perhaps in 3 to 6 months)
If we examine the June 12th Summit and the SECSTATE-nK meeting this weekend we are still on track.
Basically what happened this weekend (assuming the reporting is accurate) is point two above. The establishment of the working groups may allow the experts to really work on hammering out a process. we could see the initial results of the working group process in September if KJU comes for the UN General Assembly Meeting.
Lastly I would recommend everyone continue to keep these questions in mind as we move forward and try to assess or determine the answers. We should have asked these going into the summit and we should continue to ask them.
There are two sets of questions we should be asking going into the summit:
First, we need to think deeply about this: Has Kim Jong-un given up the foundational strategy of unification of the peninsula under the north's control through subversion, coercion, and use of force in order to ensure regime survival? Has Kim given up the key supporting objective to split the ROK/US alliance to get US forces off the peninsula so that it can achieve unification? The answer to these questions should guide our strategy.
Second, what do we want to achieve in Korea? What is the acceptable durable political arrangement on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia that will serve and protect US and ROK/US Alliance interests? Again the answer to these questions should guide our strategy.
Personally, I have seen no evidence that Kim has given up on the Kim Family Regime strategy. Therefore unfortunately my personal assessment remains this:
The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats and to the crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the North by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people.The only way we are going to achieve a unified Korea is through a ROK led effort with the full support of the United States. And for every scenario short of unification from addressing provocations, deterring North Korean attack, to defeating an attack, to dealing with the myriad contingencies that will arise from North Korean instability and regime collapse a strong ROK/US alliance is necessary for a successful outcome.
De Oppresso Liber
V/R
David
David S. Maxwell
---------- Forwarded message ----------
From: David Maxwell <David.Maxwell@georgetown.edu>
Date: Sat, Jul 7, 2018 at 10:00 AM
Subject: North Korea says talks with Pompeo were ‘regrettable’
To:
From: David Maxwell <David.Maxwell@georgetown.edu>
Date: Sat, Jul 7, 2018 at 10:00 AM
Subject: North Korea says talks with Pompeo were ‘regrettable’
To:
Not a good sign. Two different views of the talks from the north and from SECSTATE. Of course the north does not want to unilaterally denuclearize. Anyone who believed they would is either delusional or does not understand the nature of the Kim Family Regime.
That said I would not give up all hope. This remains typical north Korean negotiating strategy. Until they extract the political and economic concessions they demand they are not going to provide any substantive concessions on their part. I think that the only way we will hear about substantive agreements will be when they are agreed to by both POTUS and KJU and are announced jointly.
The fact that SECSTATE did not meet KJU should not be a surprise. Now that he has met with POTUS and has been legitimized as POTUS' "equal" he is not going to meet with lesser personnel to include the SECSTATE. He probably also did not want to receive the Elton John CD.
I will bet that what is not being reported are discussions of possible preparations for KJU to come to New York for the UN General Assembly and a possible follow-on White House visit. The positive spin I would put on all this is that with the establishment of the working groups to work on the "nitty gritty" I can imagine that some agreements might be worked out behind the scenes. Both sides probably want to negotiate in private and then make public announcements and not publicly discuss ongoing negotiations before agreements are reached. I could see some kind of joint announcement about the work done by the working groups and an agreement on some issues.
If I was a reality TV producer I would say this meeting helps to build the suspense as the end of the season with this "cliffhanger" - are the negotiations going to fail? When the new season opens in the fall we will see the resolution of the cliffhanger with some agreement that will propel the negotiations (and reality TV series) forward and the timing of such an announcement in September could be useful for the mid term elections. The timing would be better then than if it occurred right now with this meeting. And again if we spend the rest of the summer thinking the negotiations are on the ropes when a "breakthrough" occurs in September it will be heralded as a big win and the result of a great diplomatic effort by the two leaders (the only win-win acceptable in this negotiations - both leaders can mutually benefit with positive news at the right time). This process being extended over time with ups and downs and periodic successes correctly timed could be the gift that keeps on giving. Extended negotiations could be beneficial to both until the point when the threat to the American homeland is sufficiently reduced so that POTUS can bring home American troops and leave Korea to Koreans (and the Chinese and Russians).
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