Thoughts on the Possible US-north Korea Summit on June 12th

I was asked for my thoughts on what would let me breathe a sigh of relief after the outcome of the summit.

In short, as long as there is no damage to the ROK/US alliance and there is no agreement that results in an order for immediate or near term withdrawal or significant reduction of US troops on the peninsula I will breathe a sigh of relief.  Another way to say it is I will breathe a sigh of relief if the US (and the ROK) does not fall prey to the north's charm offensive and give concessions with no substantive action from the north in return.

There are two sets of questions we should be asking going into the summit:

First,  we need to think deeply about this:  Has Kim Jong-un given up the foundational strategy of unification of the peninsula under the north's control through subversion, coercion, and use of force in order to ensure regime survival?  Has Kim given up the key supporting objective to split the ROK/US alliance to get US forces off the peninsula so that it can achieve unification? The answer to these questions should guide our strategy.

Second, what do we want to achieve in Korea? What is the acceptable durable political arrangement on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia that will serve and protect US and ROK/US Alliance interests?  Again the answer to these questions should guide our strategy.

Personally, I have seen no evidence that Kim has given up on the Kim Family Regime strategy. Therefore my personal assessment remains this: 

The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats and to the crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the North by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people.

The only way we are going to achieve a unified Korea is through a ROK led effort with the full support of the United States.  And for every scenario short of unification from addressing provocations, deterring North Korean attack, to defeating an attack, to dealing with the myriad contingencies that will arise from North Korean instability and regime collapse a strong ROK/US alliance is necessary for a successful outcome.

​Therefore while we pursue diplomacy, which I believe must be the priority, we must keep in mind that the "Big Five​" will always be looming in the background and we cannot take our eyes of the ball in regards to security:

1. War - the ROK/US Alliance must deter, and if attacked defend, fight and win.

2. Regime Collapse - The ROK/US Alliance must prepare for the real possibility and understand it could lead to war and both war and regime collapse could result in resistance to unification within the north. (This would make the Iraq and Afghan resistance pale in comparison)

3. Human Rights and Crimes Against Humanity - (gulags, external forced labor, etc) must focus on as it is a threat to the Kim Family Regime and undermines domestic legitimacy - and it is a moral imperative.  Human Rights is a national security issue because their denial keeps the regime in power and the denial of human rights is key to prioritizing resources for the nuclear and missile programs.

4. Asymmetric threats (provocations to gain political and economic concessions, nuclear program, missile, cyber, and SOF) and global illicit activities (Department 39) are all employed to gain hard currency for the regime and support the regime's conduct of political warfare on the peninsula, in the region, and on a global scale.

5. Unification - the biggest challenge and the solution to the Korea question, which is the unnatural division of the Korean peninsula.

The challenge for the Republic of Korea (ROK), the US, the regional powers, and the international community is how to get from our current state of Armistice and the temporary cessation of hostilities to unification as the path most likely will involve some level of conflict ranging from war to civil conflict and potentially horrendous human suffering in the northern part of Korea. The ROK and its friends and allies face an extraordinary security challenge because of the "Big Five." War, regime collapse, and the nuclear and missile programs pose an existential threat. It is a moral imperative to work to relieve the suffering of the Korean people who live in the worst sustained human rights conditions in modern history. While unification is the desired and necessary "end state," or better yet the acceptable durable political arrangement, achieving it will be costly in treasure for sure and blood as well as there is likely no path to unification without some form of conflict, it may only be a question of scale.

​However, despite the above I think the summit will likely occur and success is a low bar with three simple objectives: 

1. “Meet and greet” to look KJU in the eye and allow the POTUS and Kim to lay out positions.

2. Agree to allow expert representatives to meet and work on a process for dismantlement of the north's nuclear program without ending sanctions until there is substantive and verifiable action by the north.

3. Agree to a follow-up meeting to discuss results of expert representative meetings (perhaps in 3 to 6 months)

Lastly, based on recent reporting in Washington and Seoul as well as the results of the 27 April Panmunjom Declaration I think it is possible that we will see a declaration to the end of the Korean War.  As long as we do not fall victim to the euphoria such a declaration will bring and keep the question of the north's foundational strategy in mind I will breathe a sigh of relief.  And if such a declaration is made there will need to be a parallel effort by the ROK, US, and north Korea to develop and implement a peace mechanism that will ensure the security of north and South.  A declaration of the end of the Korean War will be simple.  developing a peace mechanism and ensuring security and stability on the Korean peninsula while the Kim Family Regime remains in power will remain the most pressing. complex, and difficult challenge.