Thought for the Day

"By three methods we may learn wisdom: First, by reflection, which is noblest; second, by imitation, which is easiest; and third by experience, which is the bitterest." - Confucius

Monday, May 11, 2015

U.S. Spy Agencies Closely Watched N. Korea Underwater Missile Test

In response to a question I was asked about what Kim Jong-un is doing I provided this response that I thought I would share.


This is in accordance with the Kim Family Regime playbook.  Byungjin is the Kim Jong-un policy which incorporates the Military First Politics of his father and is essentially the simultaneous development of the north's nuclear program and the economy.  Recall that the last revision of the DPRK constitution declared that it is a nuclear power.  This is their logical progression to a "triad" capability (at least a photo shopped one as you noted).  They want to be considered a nuclear power and in fact some speculate (as do I) that the only way they will return to the Six Party Talks is not for denuclearization (CVID - complete verifiable irreversible denuclearization) but for strategic arms limitation or reduction talks.  They want to be treated as a nuclear power and to them it is a logical step to develop (or appear to develop) an SLBM.

If this is all fiction (likely) then this is part of its strategy to be able to influence the international community to come to the Six party talks (or more importantly to make politically and economic concessions as part of its blackmail diplomacy which is based on their assumption that the US and the international community will continue to try to "buy off" its nuclear program but will not resort to war as they are effectively deterring us with its nuclear capability - their fundamental assumption is that the US will not attack a nuclear armed nation) as well as for domestic political legitimacy.  And we support the regime's efforts on domestic political legitimacy by focusing on its nuclear and military capabilities.

Dr. Bruce Bechtol provides some very good commentary here http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p02qh7v9  starting at counter 7:57.  I strongly recommend listening to him.

Joe Bermudez has been tracking this for some time open source. Below is from last October.

North Korea: Test Stand for Vertical Launch of Sea-Based Ballistic Missiles Spotted

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28 October 2014



I should certainly hope our intelligence agencies were closely watching. But someone should also do an image search for submarine launched ballistic missiles and see if the photos below were taken from other launches.  It would be fun to call out the Kim Family Regime if fake photos could be proven.

U.S. Spy Agencies Closely Watched N. Korea Underwater Missile Test

Test preparations detected days ago



Kim Jong Un observes missile launch / KCNA
Kim Jong Un observes missile launch / KCNA
BY: 
May 11, 2015 5:00 am

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