Tuesday, December 3, 2013
KOREA IN A BIND? TIME TO TRY TO UNDERSTAND AN ALLY
My new short piece at War on the Rocks. Please go to their web site to read the entire piece.
December 3, 2013 · in Commentary and Analysis
Last Friday, a Korean newspaper claimed: “Korea Caught in a Bind Between China and the U.S.”
It reads as an illustration of the old Korean proverb that depicts the country as a “shrimp among whales.” And “when whales wrestle, shrimp die.” Why would South Korea consider itself in a bind? And why would the editorial board of the Chosun Ilbo say that South Korea depends on both the United States and China? How could South Korea choose any side but America’s?
Of course, the simple (and western) way to look at it is South Korea should be grateful for America’s support and military defense for the past 60 years. There is no doubt that the South Korean government and military leadership fully support the alliance and have “chosen sides.” But the op-ed gives voice to complex internal South Korean politics and divisions within society.
While the United States is broadly popular in South Korea—with 78% approval rating according to a recent poll—you can’t please all of the people all of the time. For some years, factions within South Korea have feared that the United States would bring it to war with China particularly because the United States has said American forces on the Peninsula would have a role outside of Korea. Some interpret this as American intent to use Korea as a staging base in a war with China. Further, China is South Korea’s largest trading partner. There are also some within South Korean society who remain suspicious of the United States and feel that it would cast away South Korea if need be. The historical dispute between South Korea and Japan also has U.S. fingerprints on it from the 1905 Taft-Katsura Agreement, which led the way to Japanese colonization of Korea in 1910 (A recent poll revealed the level of persistent anti-Japanese enmity when it found that 62% of South Koreans see Japan as a credible military threat). While we look at the 1945 division of the Peninsula at the 38th parallel as a diplomatic success saving the South from being communized and overrun with Soviet forces, there are those who blame the United States for the division.
In fact, there are those who blame the United States for the Korean War—not for starting it as Bruce Cumings has written in the past—but for not allowing South Korea to develop the military capabilities to defend itself. While North Korea was arming with then-advanced conventional weapons, the U.S. decided that South Korea should only have a lightly armed constabulary force with no armor and only limited artillery. Washington assessed that the main threat to South Korea was more from the irregular side of the spectrum, not a large-scale conventional attack. As a consequence, according to some historians, South Korea was unable to adequately defend itself when the war broke out. And then there are those in South Korea who have seen a steady decline in America’s commitment as evidenced by the steady withdrawal of U.S. forces and capabilities since 1978.
(Continued at the link below)
I strongly disagree with ending the "one Korea policy" As Jay Lefkowitz argues. I would submit that we have had a "one Kore...
Perhaps Tom Ricks' next book Generalship will be an analysis of the hiring, firing, and rehabilitation of north Korean General...
From an interview I did with a Korean media outlet last month. Have not seen an English translation but will post it when I do. “한국 요...
For comparison here are the NSC organizations from Reagan through Obama (Trump's that was released yesterday is pasted below). I have ...