ABSTRACTThis paper has as its thesis five propositions that will be discussed in detail:
- US and ROK policies are in turmoil are not coherent, and not synchronized. There is no long term approach to the “Korea Question.”
- The ROK-US alliance is eroding rapidly due to actions by both governments and their respective populations.
- North Korea will continue to execute its strategy to protect its vital national interest: Survival of the Kim Family Regime (KFR) and any strategy devised must take this into account.
- To achieve a lasting peace on the peninsula, a combined ROK-US strategy that seeks to achieve a mutually agreed upon and acceptable end state must be developed and executed in an orchestrated and cooperative approach.
- Divergent ROK and US policies must be made compatible (e.g., Kim Dae Jung’s Sunshine policy - and now the Roh Moo Hyun administration’s Peace and Prosperity policy - versus those in the US who want to focus on Regime Change). Instead of causing regime change externally the ROK and US strategy must be to prepare for a post Kim Family Regime era that arises from internal regime change while at the same time managing the crises as they occur, identifying and exploiting opportunities as they arise, and preparing for the potential conflict that a post-KFR peninsula may trigger.This paper proposes a long term ROK-US combined security strategy to work toward resolution of the “Korea question”: Comprehensive Engagement with Strength: Partner and Prosper. It establishes a long term end state toward which all efforts will focus. It provides a framework that allows management of the current and future crises while simultaneously allowing the ROK and US to identify opportunities stemming from current and future emerging crises that will support achievement of the long term end state.Key Points:· Ensure that an effective defensive capability remains in place until the “Korea Question” is resolved· Method for developing a combined strategy(1) Consultations at the political and military level between the ROKG and USG.(2) Increased high level contacts.(3) Establishment of a combined planning group (Korea Strategy Group (KSG)) with permanent NSC level members that meet on a rotating basis in Washington and Seoul.
- Repair the alliance: This will take a concerted effort by the President and senior US leadership. Must come to agreement on the divergent ROK and US policies (sunshine policy versus regime change). They are not mutually exclusive if you do not use the Iraq/Afghanistan models for regime change.
- Proposed mutually acceptable strategic end state: A stable, secure, peaceful, economically vibrant, non-nuclear peninsula, reunified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people.This end state implies regime change. But it must come from within. Most importantly while the US desires regime change it has not prepared for it. Fundamental to the strategy is that near term crises must be managed (and exploited for possible opportunities) while it prepares the foundation for a post Kim Family Regime era.
Saturday, Dec. 14, 2013
- Uncle’s execution in Kim Jong-un’s ‘empire of horror’ stokes fear of further purges
- North Korea confirms purge of Kim Jong-un’s influential uncle and mentor for alleged gambling and ‘anti-state’ acts
- Purged Kim Jong-un uncle cut out of propaganda film rerun
- North Korean firing squads reportedly execute 80 for watching foreign films