My response to the former Chinese diplomat is the modified Sun Tzu response: never assume the enemy will not attack, make yourself invincible." Do not assume the regime will not collapse, make all necessary preparations for it. And I think we should recall all the other failed strategic assumptions we have made. Assumptions are the mothers of all screw-ups.
And we should consider some other assumptions made in recent history (from an old briefing at the National War College)
Aircraft are interesting but of no military value. Marshal Foch, 1912
It is an idle dream to think the automobile will replace the railways. American Road Congress, 1913
There is no likelihood that man will tap the energy of the atom. Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize Winner, 1920
We have reached the limits of what is possible with computers. John von Neumann, mathematician, 1949
I think there is a market for maybe five computers Thomas Watson, CEO, IBM, 1943
The internet will catastrophically collapse in 1996. John Metcalf, inventor, 1995
Japan will avoid all-out war because it recognized US military superiority.With US superiority growing, a first strike was Japan’s only option.
China would not cross the Yalu River in support of the North Koreans.China would make good on its threats to counter “US aggression.”
The Soviet Union would not introduce offensive weapons into Cuba.Moscow could miscalculate and believe it could create a fait accompli.
Arabs will not start a war in 1973 they cannot win. Surprise attack, even if repelled, could wound Israel psychologically.
East Germany could not unify against the wishes of the Soviet Union.Gorbachev’s USSR was not prepared to intervene militarily in E. Europe.
India won’t test a nuclear weapon because of US and world condemnation.A successful, surprise test could boost a new Indian Govt’s credibility.
Saddam had WMD and was hiding them. Deceiving the IAEA served Iraq’s domestic needs and regional deterrence.
2013/06/15 13:42 KST
N. Korean leader's rule unlikely to collapse: former top China diplomat
SEOUL, June 15 (Yonhap) -- North Korean leader Kim Jong-un's rule is unlikely to collapse as he has firm control over the country's military and the ruling party, a former top Chinese diplomat was quoted as saying Saturday.
Former Chinese State Councilor Tang Jiaxuan made the remark during a breakfast meeting with members of the Korea-China Exchange Association, participants said.
Tang, an expert on Korean Peninsula issues, said that late North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, father of the current leader, had laid all the groundwork before his death for his son to smoothly take over, according to participants.
Tang, who served as China's foreign minister from 1998-2003, was in Seoul as part of a five-day trip that began on Wednesday.
Tang also said that Chinese President Xi Jinping made clear during a meeting with a special envoy of the North's leader last month that North Korea's nuclear weapons are unacceptable, according to the participants.
(Continued at the link below)