Park, Xi agree on North Korean denuclearization

I was watching the ROK-PRC summit on Korean TV in Seoul today, and I cannot help but notice what appears to be a very high level of ceremony and respect surrounding the visit.  I doubt that Kim Jong-il received this much apparent respect and recognition and certainly Kim Gye-kwan did not on his last visit (though obviously he is not a head of state).  But the televised events have to be a real slap in the face of the Kim Family Regime let along the stated "common view" on denuclearization that was announced.  I certainly hope the north Korean defector organizations (and hopefully ROK and US PSYOP professionals) are capturing all these images and transmitting them to the people in the north as there is a lot of PSYOP value in the images and words coming out of Beijing today..  It sure does not look like President Park is anybody's "puppet" and this visit even more than the US visit  really illustrates the status of the ROK as superior to that of the DPRK. (I do not mean anything negative about the US visit because President Park received protocol respect above the working level visit but because the PRC is a north Korean ally and it is treating President Park with far more public recognition than of its ally even when they were closer than lips and teeth).  As an aside in comparison with President Parks' self taught language skills, I wonder how much Mandarin Kim Jong-il spoke or Kim Jong-un speaks?

V/R

Dave

Park, Xi agree on North Korean denuclearization

Two presidents reach 'common view' on denuclearization, 'peace and stability' and 'resolving issues through dialogue'

http://www.nknews.org/2013/06/park-xi-agree-on-north-korean-denuclearization/

BY SUSAN AHN , JUNE 27, 2013

SEOUL – Park Geun-hye and Chinese President Xi Jiping share a “common view” that North Korea should denuclearize after a day of bilateral talks that were widely believed to have been heavily focused on the North Korean nuclear issue.

Park is in China for a four-day visit and, after meeting the Chinese President, is expected to meet with Premier Li Keqiang and Zhang Dejiang, Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress on Friday.

“The two leaders shared a common view on denuclearizing North Korea, maintaining peace and stability on the Korean peninsula and resolving issues through dialogue and negotiations,” Reuters reported Park Geun-hye’s office as saying.

Beyond the North’s nuclear program, Park’s self-taught Mandarin and interest in Chinese philosophy has dominated Chinese media coverage in anticipation of the summit.

EAST ASIAN DENUCLEARIZATION

Denuclearization should be a “joint-effort”, Park’s senior presidential secretary Ju Chul-ki said in an official statement before the summit

“This visit is an opportunity for our two countries to further cooperation on effective North Korea policies, including the denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and the peace and stability of the region,” he added.

Free Trade Agreements and other points to “forge a stronger economic partnership” were also discussed by the two presidents, staff from both sides said.

“I believe it is high time for our two countries to seek a new framework of economic cooperation in line with our economic status within the international community,” Park told the China Daily in a printed interview.

XI’AN THE SIGHTS

(Continued at the link below)

http://www.nknews.org/2013/06/park-xi-agree-on-north-korean-denuclearization/

Behind Breakdown of Korea Talks, a History of Suspicions

My wife commented that north Korea has not been able to figure out President Park.  I think perhaps the north's action here (though expected and in line with their playbook of how to scuttle agreements) may be an illustration that it is wary of (if not fears) the potential of President Park's policy of "trustpolitik."    She is taking the moral high ground and the north may be beginning to understand that she is not one who will back down in the face of provocation and rhetoric.  Furthermore, I think one of the things China has made clear to the regime is that the ROK/US Alliance is stronger and more unified than ever and that the north is not going to be successful in splitting the Alliance.  And most importantly the strength of the Alliance provides President Park with a strong foundation from which to operate and from this she has a lot of flexibility.  I think the regime may be beginning to figure this out.

V/R

Dave

June 12, 2013

Behind Breakdown of Korea Talks, a History of Suspicions

By CHOE SANG-HUN

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/13/world/asia/behind-breakdown-of-korea-talks-a-history-of-suspicions.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print

SEOUL, South Korea — Plans to hold what would have been the highest government dialogue between North and South Korea in years — and hopes for a rapprochement on the divided Korean Peninsula — collapsed over what appeared to be a minor technical issue: who should lead their delegations to the planned talks.

But in the decades-old confrontation between the two Koreas, even a matter of protocol can escalate into a highly sensitive struggle over pride. Their latest tussle over the proper ranks of their chief delegates was in part an extension of a struggle that has persisted for decades.

“We must think of the pride of our people,” Prime Minister Chung Hong-won of South Korea told the National Assembly on Wednesday, explaining what was at stake in the dispute with North Korea.

During border talks decades ago, both sides took the competition over protocol and appearances to the extreme, with North Korean military officers secretly adding inches to the legs of their chairs so they would look taller than their counterparts from South Korea and the United States across the table.

In those cold war-era meetings, the sides usually exchanged invectives and retorts. But they also sometimes persisted in silence — for over 11 hours in one session in 1969 — challenging the other side to speak first.

In the best-known contest of pride on the divided peninsula, North and South Korea once engaged in a race over which country could raise its national flag higher over the heavily fortified border. That battle was eventually settled with the North beating the South; today, the North’s flagpole stands 500 feet tall, beating the rival South staff by roughly 200 feet.

The latest tussle of pride began when the two Koreas agreed this week to hold government-to-government dialogue in Seoul, starting on Wednesday, but could not come to terms on who should be their chief delegates.

South Korea said it would send its vice unification minister, Kim Nam-sik, to the meeting as its chief delegate. North Korea said that Mr. Kim was not senior enough and demanded that the South send Mr. Kim’s supervisor, the Unification Minister Ryoo Kihl-jae, as chief delegate. The South retorted that the proposed chief North Korean delegate — Kang Ji-yong, director of the secretariat of the Committee for the Peaceful Reunification of Korea — was already below Mr. Kim “in status.”

Last-minute negotiations for a compromise had failed, with both Koreas complaining of a bruised ego. Then, on the eve of the talks, North Korea pulled out of the planned meeting in Seoul, accusing the South of “an insult,” South Korean officials said.

It appeared unlikely that the two Koreas would try to resume negotiations any time soon.

South Korean officials said they were still open to dialogue but had no plan to reach out to the North by making a concession over the chief delegate. On Wednesday, Mr. Chung, the South Korean prime minister, said his government had no intention of succumbing to the North’s “humiliating” demand.

North Korea has not made any announcement on the matter since its withdrawal from the talks. On Wednesday, it did not respond when the South made routine maintenance calls on the cross-border communications hot lines.

Critics accused the South Korean government of ruining a chance to engage the North through dialogue, instead bickering over protocol matters. The planned talks had raised hopes of a thaw on the peninsula after months of bellicose rhetoric, including threats of nuclear war, from the North. But South Korean officials said that their firm stance reflected the new approach under President Park Geun-hye, who has stressed “principle” and “trust” in relations with the North and vowed to make the North respect “global standards.”

(Continued at the link below)

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/06/13/world/asia/behind-breakdown-of-korea-talks-a-history-of-suspicions.html?_r=0&pagewanted=print

Park says Korea-U.S. alliance base for reunited Korea, region

These are some important words to which I hope people are paying attention.  For those who dispute Korean unification as a strategic end state for the alliance to achieve please listen to President Park.  Alliance policymakers, strategists, and planners need to have a long term view even as they are reacting to crises and ask who with this policy, strategy, or plan contribute to the path toward Korean unification?

She specified a three-point vision for the future of the alliance for the peninsula, region and the world.  

Park said the alliance should lay the groundwork for enduring peace on the Korean Peninsula and over time, for reunification. 

Park explained that her “trustpolitik” process involved never accepting a nuclear-armed North Korea and decisive measures against any provocations, but delinking that from humanitarian aid. 

“And with the trust that gradually builds up, through exchange, through cooperation, we will cement the grounds for durable peace and eventually peaceful reunification.”

V/R
Dave

Park says Korea-U.S. alliance base for reunited Korea, region

President calls for U.S. support for trustpolitik, Northeast Asia peace initiative in address to Congress

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20130508000886

Published : 2013-05-08 17:39
Updated : 2013-05-09 09:55

WASHINGTON -- President Park Geun-hye on Wednesday (Thursday Korea time) hailed the Korea-U.S. alliance as the linchpin of a reunified Korea, the future Northeast Asian order and the two countries’ cooperation to address insecurity and poverty around the world. 

Park also called on the U.S. to support her vision to forge a multinational mechanism for peace and cooperation in Northeast Asia.

The president delivered these messages before a joint session of the House and the Senate and during the gala dinner commemorating the 60th anniversary of Korea-U.S. alliance the night before.

“Building on the extraordinary accomplishments of the last 60 years, we determined to embark on another shared journey toward peace on the Korean Peninsula, toward cooperation in Northeast Asia, and finally, toward prosperity around the world,” Park said in her 30-minute speech, referring to the summit talks she had with President Barack Obama the day before.

She specified a three-point vision for the future of the alliance for the peninsula, region and the world. 

Park said the alliance should lay the groundwork for enduring peace on the Korean Peninsula and over time, for reunification.

Park explained that her “trustpolitik” process involved never accepting a nuclear-armed North Korea and decisive measures against any provocations, but delinking that from humanitarian aid.

“And with the trust that gradually builds up, through exchange, through cooperation, we will cement the grounds for durable peace and eventually peaceful reunification.”

At her speech to Congress, Park also called on the alliance to reach beyond the Korean Peninsula and build a mechanism for peace and cooperation.

“The initiative will serve the cause of peace and development in the region. But it will be firmly rooted in the Korea-U.S. alliance,” she said saying the dialogue could start on softer issues such as environment, disaster relief, nuclear safety and counter-terrorism. She added that North Korea could also be invited to join.

(Continued at the link below)

http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20130508000886

South Korean President Park Geun-hye answers questions

Some very interesting statements from President Park.  She does have the potential to be a very positive leader in the region.  Perhaps there is something to theory that the world would be a more peaceful place if there were more women heads of state.  I think her comments about history and emotions are very important and things that we as Americans cannot really seem to appreciate.

Who is responsible for the tensions in the region, apart from North Korea? 

I wasn’t referring to a specific country; it’s more about history. It can be said that if territory constitutes the body, history constitutes the soul. . . . Even a very small fire can be greatly inflamed, so it is imperative that we have a hard-headed and correct understanding of history. 

How dangerous are the tensions among Japan, China and other countries in the region, and what more could the United States do? 

This could be referred to as the Asian paradox. We see deepening economic interdependence in Northeast Asia uneasily coexisting with tensions deriving from various historical issues that spill over into the political and security realms. . . . Unlike Europe, this region does not have a framework for multilateral discussions, and this just simply doesn’t make sense. This is why I propose to advance the Peace and Cooperation Initiative for Northeast Asia, whereby the countries of Northeast Asia, including the United States — and this would be firmly anchored to our alliance with the United States — could engage in discussions of nonpolitical issues, such as climate change, terrorism and nuclear safety. . . . We could build trust and then move on to larger issues of cooperation. This is what I proposed, and while it may not seem like much, I think the state of emotions here in the region can be quite risky and dangerous, so if we could build trust, this is a project which I wish to pursue jointly with the United States and in fact it is what I suggested to President Obama in my meeting with him today.

V/R

Dave

South Korean President Park Geun-hye answers questions

Published: May 7

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/south-korean-president-park-geun-hye-answers-questions/2013/05/07/d7482e5a-b761-11e2-b94c-b684dda07add_print.html

South Korean President Park Geun-hye spoke with senior associate editor Lally Weymouth and other Post journalists Wednesday after her meeting with President Obama. Excerpts of the interview:

Q: Do you think China could do more to promote North Korean denuclearization?

A: After President Xi Jinping took office in China we were able to see some changes, which President Obama also referred to as positive. I believe that China can exert more influence on [North] Korea, I think they can do more. . . . In order for North Korea to change, and in order for the Korean Peninsula to enjoy greater peace, North Korea needs to choose the right path, and China should exert greater influence in inducing North Korea to do so.

You have a good relationship with the new president of China and you are going to visit China soon. China has recently distanced itself from North Korea. Is China prepared to cooperate more with your government and the United States in respect to curbing North Korea’s nuclear ambitions?

When I meet with President Xi Jinping I look forward to engaging in very candid discussions with him on issues that encompass North Korea, its nuclear weapons, as well as peace and stability in Northeast Asia. I also hope to be able to engage in candid discussions with him about whether, if North Korea decides not to become a responsible member of the international community, and chooses not to take the right path, whether this current path that it is taking is sustainable. Is there a future there?

What more could China do?

Of course, we can’t expect China to do everything, and the Chinese also say they can’t do everything. But I do believe there’s room for them to undertake more with respect to some material aspects. At the same time China has been able to achieve growth and development through reform and opening, and I think this offers a very good model for [North] Korea to follow, and so they can perhaps strengthen their persuasion of Korea in this regard.

What do you mean by material aspects?

North Korea is very heavily dependent on China.

How do you assess Korean-Japanese relations?

I remember eight years ago, when I had an interview with The Washington Post, that was also a time when the North Korean nuclear crisis was ongoing, and when the Japanese were also making comments about [disputed islands], thereby raising the temperature between Korea and Japan. Eight years later I’m very disappointed and frustrated to see that we haven’t made any progress. Japan and [South] Korea share many things in common — our shared values of democracy, freedom and a market economy — and there is a need for us to cooperate on North Korea and on economic issues as well as security issues. . . . But the Japanese have been opening past wounds and have been letting them fester, and this applies not only to Korea but also to other neighboring countries. . . . This arrests our ability to really build momentum, so I hope that Japan reflects upon itself.

How dangerous are the tensions among Japan, China and other countries in the region, and what more could the United States do?

This could be referred to as the Asian paradox. We see deepening economic interdependence in Northeast Asia uneasily coexisting with tensions deriving from various historical issues that spill over into the political and security realms. . . . Unlike Europe, this region does not have a framework for multilateral discussions, and this just simply doesn’t make sense. This is why I propose to advance the Peace and Cooperation Initiative for Northeast Asia, whereby the countries of Northeast Asia, including the United States — and this would be firmly anchored to our alliance with the United States — could engage in discussions of nonpolitical issues, such as climate change, terrorism and nuclear safety. . . . We could build trust and then move on to larger issues of cooperation. This is what I proposed, and while it may not seem like much, I think the state of emotions here in the region can be quite risky and dangerous, so if we could build trust, this is a project which I wish to pursue jointly with the United States and in fact it is what I suggested to President Obama in my meeting with him today.

Is the U.S. “rebalance” to Asia aimed at China?

The reason we see the security posture in the region being strengthened is because of what North Korea has been doing, as North Korea escalates the level of threats and provocations. . . . The basis of peace in this area is to maintain a firm deterrence posture, especially with regard to North Korea. If North Korea were to choose to become a responsible member of the international community and desist from provocations . . .I’m sure we would not need to see the strengthening of military postures in the region.

(Continued at the link below)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/south-korean-president-park-geun-hye-answers-questions/2013/05/07/d7482e5a-b761-11e2-b94c-b684dda07add_print.html

Park seeks to cement alliance: Korean, U.S. leaders to pledge joint stance on N.K., alliance, regional cooperation

Excerpt:

“The two countries are preparing a joint declaration commemorative of the alliance’s 60th anniversary about the direction of the two countries’ future development,” presidential spokesman Yoon Chang-jung said Friday. 

“The declaration will go beyond the future vision of the alliance announced in 2009, and will include core factors about the two countries’ future direction that foresees the next several decades,” he said.

Going beyond the 2009 Joint Vision must imply that peninsula unification remains a key element of the alliance strategic objectives.

Cheong Wa Dae said the slogan of Park’s U.S. visit is “Bound by trust, forward together” to summarize the meaning of the summit talks that will design the future of the trust-based Korea-U.S. alliance. 

Observers said the slogan also looks to have taken into account Obama’s latest political jargon including “forward” and “together.” Obama’s election slogan for his second presidential bid was “forward.”  

He also concluded with the words “we stand together, we work together, we go together” during a speech at Hankuk University of Foreign Studies in Seoul last May.

Every ROK/US Combined Forces Commander since at least GEN Luck has made "Kachi Kapsida" (we go together) as the slogan for the command.  Of course the irony is that in 2015 with the dissolution of the ROK/US CFC we may not be going so closely together (unless the Presidents decide that we should maintain unity of command and effort in the Military Alliance)

V/R

Dave

Park seeks to cement alliance

Korean, U.S. leaders to pledge joint stance on N.K., alliance, regional cooperation

http://nwww.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20130505000140&utm_source=feedly

Published : 2013-05-05 20:38
Updated : 2013-05-05 20:38

NEW YORK ― President Park Geun-hye arrived in New York on Sunday (early Monday Korean time) on the first leg of her first overseas tour in the U.S. 

Her agenda includes summit talks with U.S. President Barack Obama to send a united message on North Korea, regional cooperation and a reinforced Seoul-Washington alliance.

The two presidents are expected to adopt a joint declaration marking the 60th anniversary of the two countries’ alliance upon their first official summit meeting on Wednesday.

Park and Obama are likely to express fortified cooperation between Seoul and Washington to send a stronger warning against North Korea’s provocation and nuclear threats. 

(left) President Park Geun-hye (Chung Hee-cho/The Korea Herald ) (right) U.S. President Barack Obama (Yonhap News)

Park is also expected to urge the U.S.’ support for her trust-building efforts with the North and Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative, resemblant of Europe’s Helsinki process of the 1970s.

Park remains committed to these visions for peninsular peace and regional security, aides said, despite criticism that it was out of tune with current developments.

“The two countries are preparing a joint declaration commemorative of the alliance’s 60th anniversary about the direction of the two countries’ future development,” presidential spokesman Yoon Chang-jung said Friday.

“The declaration will go beyond the future vision of the alliance announced in 2009, and will include core factors about the two countries’ future direction that foresees the next several decades,” he said.

The two leaders are likely to reaffirm their tight-knit cooperation on regional matters including security, the economy and climate change on the comprehensive strategic alliance for a “global partnership.”

Sources said Park and Obama will express stern opposition to Pyongyang’s recent acts of belligerence including its missile threats and the shutdown of the Gaeseong industrial park. 

Another key purpose of the trip is to reassure American investors of the stability of the Korean market, which suffered heightened anxieties over North Korea’s threats of a military attack. 

A record number of conglomerate owners including Samsung Group chairman Lee Kun-hee are accompanying Park to attend meetings arranged with the U.S. Chamber of Commerce in Washington.

A company representing Korean businesses operating in the Gaeseong industrial complex is also joining the business delegation, presenting an opportunity to explain the position of the South Korean side of the suspension of the symbolic inter-Korean project. The Gaeseong industrial complex has been suspended since the North pulled out all of its workers. This was followed by a slow withdrawal of all remaining South staff in the border town.

In New York, Park is set to meet Korean-Americans, before meeting with U.N. secretary-general Ban Ki-moon and other South Korean employees in the U.N.

Park will then move to Washington and pay tribute to the Korean War veterans at the Arlington National Cemetery.

(Continued at the link below)

http://nwww.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20130505000140&utm_source=feedly

Park says to unveil 'Northeast Asia peace' initiative during visit to U.S.

The Seoul process:

 The idea, which Park dubbed the "Seoul process," calls for the United States and Asian nations to enhance cooperation, first on non-political issues such as climate change, terrorism prevention and atomic power, before expanding the trust built in such cooperation to other areas.

An interesting initiative that I hope we can support.  I think it is very important that Seoul takes the lead in the region. This can be a positive step (even though I remain completely pessimistic that any positive step like this will influence the north).
V/R
Dave

2013/04/24 20:43 KST

(2nd LD) Park says to unveil 'Northeast Asia peace' initiative during visit to U.S.

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2013/04/24/94/0301000000AEN20130424013800315F.HTML

By Chang Jae-soon

SEOUL, April 24 (Yonhap) -- South Korean President Park Geun-hye said Wednesday she will unveil her vision to promote peace in Northeast Asia during a visit to the United States next month, offering an invitation for North Korea to join the trust-building process.

   The idea, which Park dubbed the "Seoul process," calls for the United States and Asian nations to enhance cooperation, first on non-political issues such as climate change, terrorism prevention and atomic power, before expanding the trust built in such cooperation to other areas.

   The initiative appears to be an expanded, Asian version of Park's "Korean Peninsula trust proces" that calls for greater exchanges and cooperation between the two Koreas so as to build trust and reduce tensions across one of the world's most heavily fortified border.

   "Asian countries have a high level of mutual economic interdependence, but they also a lot of contentious issues when it comes to security and territorial matters. We call this 'Asia paradox' and the reason I'm doing this (the initiative) is to overcome that," Park said during a meeting with dozens of managing editors of major newspapers and broadcasters, including Yonhap News Agency and its broadcasting arm, news Y.

   "I believe North Korea can get into this initiative," she added.

   Park is scheduled to visit the United States, her first overseas trip since taking office in February, for a summit with President Barack Obama on May 7. In Washington, she will also deliver a speech before a joint session of the U.S. Congress.

   Park said she expects to have in-depth discussions with Obama about how to denuclearize North Korea and ways to further strengthen the alliance between Seoul and Washington. South Korean needs closer cooperation with Washington now than at any other times, she said.
(Continued at the link below)
http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2013/04/24/94/0301000000AEN20130424013800315F.HTML

Park's speech to U.S. Congress to show strong alliance amid N. Korea's threats: Boehner

An interesting piece of Congressional trivia worth checking.  I have been told that the last head of state to address a joint session of Congress was President Lee thus two Korean heads of state will give back to back addresses.  I am sure if it is true that it will be perhaps coincidence (with 2012 an election year there was probably no time for another head of state to address Congress) but it is also interesting and perhaps worth highlighting to show the strength of the ROK/US Alliance.  (e.g., another action to attack the north's strategy to try to split the Alliance).

V/R

Dave

2013/04/24 05:28 KST

Park's speech to U.S. Congress to show strong alliance amid N. Korea's threats: Boehner

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2013/04/24/39/0301000000AEN20130424000300315F.HTML

By Lee Chi-dong

WASHINGTON, April 23 (Yonhap) -- The upcoming speech by South Korean President Park Geun-hye in the U.S. Congress will provide a chance to demonstrate the strength of the alliance between the two nations amid North Korea's military threats, the leader of the House said.

   "It will be my honor to welcome President Park to the United States Capitol next month,”House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) said in a statement. "Given the North Korean regime's recent provocative actions, President Park's address to Congress will serve as a vital and timely reminder that Americans and South Koreans will continue to stand shoulder to shoulder to preserve our hopes for peace and freedom."

   Park plans to address a joint session of Congress on May 8 after holding talks with President Barack Obama at the White House.

   She is scheduled to arrive in Washington on May 5 for her first overseas trip since taking office in February.

   It comes as South Korea and the U.S. mark the 60th anniversary of their alliance this year.

   U.S. Rep. Ed Royce (R-CA), chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, also noted the significance of Park's planned speech.

   "America's close relationship with South Korea, forged 60 years ago during the dark days of the Korean War, remains strong and vibrant to this very day," he said in a separate statement.

   On the 60th anniversary of the armistice of the 1950-53 war, he added, "I believe it is only fitting to bestow this high honor to Northeast Asia's first elected female head of state.

(Continued at the link below)

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2013/04/24/39/0301000000AEN20130424000300315F.HTML

Ancient Chinese general’s strategies should guide U.S. in dealing with N. Korea

From an interview I did earlier this week.  Always good to think about Sun Tzu.

V/R

Dave

Ancient Chinese general’s strategies should guide U.S. in dealing with N. Korea

By Lou Kilzer 

http://triblive.com/usworld/nation/3809650-74/north-south-korean#axzz2PsqtGzIU

Published: Wednesday, April 10, 2013, 12:01 a.m.
Updated 4 hours ago 

Five centuries before Christ, Sun Tzu wrote “The Art of War,” which teaches enduring principles of combat:

Position troops so the enemy must face the sun. If an enemy leaves a door open, rush through. If outnumbered, retreat.

The book by the ancient Chinese general and military strategist is well-known among those in the military and in the business world. Its underlying theme was the axiom, “All warfare is based on deception.”

It is through this lens that Americans and others must view the situation with young North Korean leader Kim Jong-un. For if he has not yet had time to digest Sun Tzu, his generals certainly have, experts say.

A wise general who wanted to attack wouldn't announce it beforehand. He wouldn't pound war drums for weeks, giving an enemy time to reinforce already superior forces. He definitely wouldn't say he intended to incinerate several American cities and then move missiles into firing position in broad daylight.

Even launching a medium-range missile out to sea — which North Korea may do Wednesday — or at any time — is not really intended to ignite a war, experts told the Tribune-Review.

This is a bluff, said David Maxwell, associate director of the Center for Security Studies at George Washington University.

“The North Koreans read Sun Tzu,” said Maxwell, a retired Special Forces colonel who served five tours in South Korea. “I don't think they want to go to war at all. This is not how you go to war.”

Denny Roy, a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Hawaii, agreed. The North Koreans, he said, “do not want to go to war.”

But Maxwell, Roy and other experts interviewed by the Tribune-Review over the recent course of rising North Korean stakes each separately used the exact same word — “miscalculation” — to describe deep concerns about what could happen.

“This situation is the most serious since the Korean War in the 1950s,” said Ellen Kim, a Korean scholar with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.

DOUBLE THE DANGER

The danger, Kim and the other experts say, is two-fold. First, the North's rhetoric this time is so bizarre that to do nothing after such a build-up would involve a loss of face. Likewise, Kim Jong-un may launch a missile to sea to save face, Kim said.

Losing face is one of the most dreaded things for a Korean or others in East Asia. In the Koreas, the concept is known as Kibun. There is no literal English translation, but it means to disrupt the balanced harmony in a relationship by hurting someone's pride or causing them to lose dignity.

South Korea's new leader, Park Geun-hye, “has made it clear that she will respond,” Kim said. Maxwell, Roy and Kim agree that opinion has changed in South Korea since 2010, when the North killed 50 South Koreans by sinking the naval ship Cheonan and firing shells at the South Korean island of Yeonpyeong.

The second danger is that in the past, South Koreans responded to threats from the North with nonchalance that often surprised people in the West. Not anymore, said Kim, who was raised in the South. “They killed Koreans.”

“If the North launches a kinetic operation (against the South), the South Korean military is going to respond,” Maxwell agreed.

The key, he said, is that the reaction be strong, swift and “at the point of provocation.” If it is delayed or non-proportional, it could produce a dreaded miscalculation.

Chinese leaders have soaked up Sun Tzu since grade school. Nowhere in “The Art of War” does it say a great power (China) should let a minor one (North Korea) determine the timing or place of a conflict with a deadly enemy regardless of any agreement.

Unlike the past, China has remained mostly quiet as the United States and its friends beef up forces in the region. The carrier USS John C. Stennis is paying a visit to the newly welcoming port of Singapore. B-2 stealth bombers made practice bomb runs during a visit to South Korea as part of annual war games with its ally that the North has blamed for its rancor. The most advanced fighter jets in the world, F-22s, are landing in the South.

(Continued at the link below)

http://triblive.com/usworld/nation/3809650-74/north-south-korean#axzz2PsqtGzIU

Park ready to widen inter-Korean exchanges without provocations by North: official

President Park is maintaining the moral high ground here and making sure the ball is in the north's court.  The blame for tension and conflict on the Korean Peninsula (past, present, and future) rests squarely on the shoulders of the Kim Family Regime.

V/R

Dave

(LEAD) Park ready to widen inter-Korean exchanges without provocations by North: official

2013-03-24 16:46

http://m.yna.co.kr/mob2/en/contents_en.jsp?cid=AEN20130324000351315&domain=3&ctype=A&site=0100000000   

The Park Geun-hye administration will actively engage with North Korea with more support and exchange projects if the communist neighbor strives to follow international norms, a senior official at Seoul's presidential office said Sunday.

   "Support for North Korea and diverse inter-Korean exchange programs will be expanded as long as the North cooperates with peace efforts on the Korean Peninsula by refraining from provocations and joining the international community," said a high-ranking official at Seoul's presidential office Cheong Wa Dae. He requested anonymity.

   His remarks echo Park's "Korean Peninsula trust process" vision that calls for greater exchanges and dialogue between the two sides so as to build trust and reduce tensions across their heavily fortified border.

   Citing the approval of a shipment of tuberculosis medicine by a private South Korean charity group to the North, the first aid package under the Park government, the official stressed the differences in how Park will deal with the communist North compared to former President Lee Myung-bak.

   "Park's key principle is that any political incidents will not wholly suspend humanitarian aid and inter-Korean exchange programs," he said, "It's certain that Park's policy toward Pyongyang will be different from that of Lee."

   Seeking peace and stabilization of the Korean Peninsula, the Park administration that took office late last month has embraced a "trustpolitik" doctrine to normalize inter-Korean relations that have been rocked by uncertainties in the past.

   "The key to more support and exchanges is how transparent the North Korean regime is," said the senior official, calling for patience and cooperation between the two sides.

(Continued at the link below)

http://m.yna.co.kr/mob2/en/contents_en.jsp?cid=AEN20130324000351315&domain=3&ctype=A&site=0100000000 

President Park to make first overseas visit to the US in May

Seems we may have got off on the wrong foot according to this article below.  But I am very happy that she will travel to the US first.  I think that we should keep in mind given everything that is going on on the Peninsula and the region, the ROK/US Alliance is going to continue to be a key foreign policy and national security pillar for both nations.  Here are a few recommendations for the first meeting.

We should keep in mind that in the future President Park will travel to Beijing which is a good thing to do given the north Korean situation.  Good relations between Seoul and Beijing will send a strong signal to the north.  However, with her visit to the US we need to conduct some diplomatic and political activities that will ensure everyone understands that the Alliance is rock solid (and we need to subtly outdo the Chinese.)

The most important task as I have mentioned is reaffirming and hopefully expanding the 2009 Joint Vision Statement.  There needs to be a signed document and a joint press conference to unveil it at the end of the visit.  They need to reinforce the strategic end state of Korean unification.

They also need to agree that the north is trying to split the alliance which is always one of the objectives of the north's provocations (the other being to obtain political and economic concessions).  They need to work on a plan (or actually agree to a plan hammered out by Korean and US action officers) to have menu of responses so that each time the north conducts a provocation the Alliance can do something to show that the north's actions are making the alliance stronger.  There can include such things as renaming Key Resolve/Foal Eagle to Team Spirit; increase port calls of US Navy ships (perhaps use Korean ports for appropriate maintenance of US naval ships so that they spend a longer amount of time than the standard port call; returning US forces to patrolling the DMZ integrated into the ROK C2 structure for operations on the DMZ, returning US forces to Korea (e.g., the helicopter battalion and others) to turn around the long term slow reduction of US forces on the Peninsula that has been occurring since 1978, and of course my favorite, the announcement that the ROK/US CFC will not be dissolved but will be fully supported and resourced to achieve victory and then lastly an announcement that a ROK General will take command of the ROK/US CFC.  I am sure the action officers can establish a comprehensive menu for responses.  But all of this must be built on the ROK/US vision and a long term strategy.  I would like the two Presidents to agree to have the military reexamine the dissolution of CFC and the movement of US forces South (in particular 2ID) and decide that by 2014 a decision will be made to reverse the dissolution(keeping in mind that it could be strategically wise to announce that decision sooner depending on the type of pressure that we want to exert on the north and the messages we want to send.

Finally in terms of diplomatic and political activities:  There should be a state dinner of course or a visit to Camp David (which might not be a bad thing for the ROK and US senior leaders to hammer out the strategy necessary – but there may not be enough time for that).  I would also recommend an address to a joint session of Congress.  Interestingly I understand that the last address to a joint session was in 2011 and it was made by President Lee and there has not been one since.  That would send quite a message about the strength and importance of the Alliance if Korea had the only back to back addresses to Congress by two of its Presidents.

I certainly hope this visit is being well planned now and that we do not have any more bumps in the road like the one described below.  I think it is absolutely imperative that in addition to reaffirming the Joint Vision that this visit has all the right political symbolism to ensure that the countries in the region and in particularly the north get the message about the importance and strength of the Alliance.  This will set the foundation for all future actions and strategy development and execution.

V/R
Dave

President Park to make first overseas visit to the US in May http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/577831.html

Posted on : Mar.13,2013 11:15 KST

American official may have breached protocol by announcing the date of Park’s visit prematurely 

By Seok Jin-hwan, Blue House correspondent and Park Hyun, Washington correspondent

Park Geun-hye plans to follow the precedent set by previous presidents by visiting the US on her first overseas visit, with a summit meeting scheduled with president Barack Obama in early May.

While the decision was expected, given the US’s diplomatic importance, a number of issues remain to be addressed between the two leaders.

First among them is the matter of strengthening the alliance in response to the recent crisis on the Korean Peninsula with North Korea’s third nuclear test, the United Nations sanctions imposed in response, and Pyongyang’s declaration that it would nullify the 1953 armistice agreement. Experts are also predicting the two leaders will discuss Park’s ideas for a “trust-building process” in inter-Korean affairs, an area of continued emphasis during her election campaign, and for getting the six-party talks on the nuclear issue off the ground again. A Blue House official said the discussions would likely address ideas for cooperation on the 60th anniversary of the alliance this year, as well as a wide range of other issues, including North Korea’s nuclear program.

Another major item on the agenda is likely to be amending the two countries’ atomic energy agreement, which currently restricts the reprocessing of spent fuel rods. The current agreement will expire in March 2014. Park already made a request along these lines during a meeting with US House Committee on Foreign Affairs chairman Ed Royce after her election, asking for cooperation from him and other members of Congress so that the agreement could be amended in a more “future-oriented” way.

(Continued at the link below)

http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/577831.html

Park’s ongoing security dilemma

Retaliation simply for "aiming?" 

But the author makes some important points in these excerpts:

The remaining realistic option would be strengthening our strategic leverage in the U.S. alliance. South Korea could positively consider joining the U.S.-led missile defense system. If it opts to join the planned buildup of defensive posture in the Asia-Pacific arena, South Korea’s strategic importance to the U.S. would increase. In a similar context, we could also negotiate delaying the timetable for the U.S. transfer of wartime operational control set for 2015. These arrangements could heighten the possibility of full commitment and retaliatory response from the U.S. against a North Korean attack.…
Deterrence alone cannot be a fundamental solution to the North’s nuclear threat. At the same time, we cannot make a preemptive strike to destroy North Korea’s nuclear weapons as it could trigger a full-blown war. The buildup of mutual trust on the Korean Peninsula - as suggested by President Park - may be a better solution than that. There is no guarantee on how long and how well it will work. But that way would prevent a war and save millions of lives.

V/R
Dave 

Park’s ongoing security dilemma

http://koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=2967849

If the North aims nuclear missiles at the South, would the U.S. immediately retaliate with nuclear weapons?

Mar 01,2013

The uproar over North Korea’s third nuclear test has died down to some extent. Vehement condemnation and outcries toward unruly North Korea - as if it was ready to start a nuclear war - have simmered down. But the advances in the North’s nuclear armament have become alarmingly dangerous and demand quick resolute actions because it poses the first major task for the new Park Geun-hye administration.

In her inaugural address, Park sent a solemn message to Pyongyang, warning that it will end up as the biggest victim from the nuclear test and urging it to put down nuclear weaponry to join the path of peace and co-prosperity. However, she repeated her campaign promise of a different approach from the hardline Lee Myung-bak administration, reiterating that she will strive to build mutual trust with the North - despite its nuclear threat and based on “irrefutable deterrence.” A new storm in a teacup may be brewing.

What does she mean by “irrefutable deterrence?” North Korea is armed with more than 1,000 ballistic missiles that can reach South Korea, Japan and Guam. If it actually succeeded in building a smaller and lighter bomb as it claimed, it is closer to turning out miniaturized nuclear warheads small enough to fit atop its long-range missiles. The country is estimated to be near developing inter-continental ballistic missiles that can even strike the U.S. mainland within a few years. North Korea also supposedly has more than a hundred mobile launchers that can evade preemptive strikes from the U.S. and South Korea.

(Continued at the link below)

http://koreajoongangdaily.joinsmsn.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=2967849

The full text of Park’s inaugural speech

Theme: Second Miracle on the Han (of course her father was the architect of the first Miracle on the Han).

Here the key excerpt that concerns most of us outside Korea.  I think the emphasis on trust (e.g., "trustpolitik" as outlined in her Foreign Affairs article in 2011), building trust on the basis of credible deterrence and Korean Unification is going to be interesting.  As I have mentioned it will be interesting to see what comes of her upcoming meeting with president Obama and whether the Alliance will reaffirm the commitment to Unification.

My Fellow Koreans,
Happiness can only flourish when people feel comfortable and secure. I pledge to you today that I will not tolerate any action that threatens the lives of our people and the security of our nation.  

North Korea’s recent nuclear test is a challenge to the survival and future of the Korean people, and there should be no mistake that the biggest victim will be none other than North Korea itself.  

I urge North Korea to abandon its nuclear ambitions without delay and embark on the path to peace and shared development.  

It is my sincere hope that North Korea can progress together as a responsible member of the international community instead of wasting its resources on nuclear and missile development and continuing to turn its back to the world in self-imposed isolation. 

There is no doubt that we are faced today with an extremely serious security environment but neither can we afford to remain where we are.  

Through a trust-building process on the Korean Peninsula I intend to lay the groundwork for an era of harmonious unification where all Koreans can lead more prosperous and freer lives and where their dreams can come true. 

I will move forward step-by-step on the basis of credible deterrence to build trust between the South and the North.  

Trust can be built through dialogue and by honoring promises that have already been made. It is my hope that North Korea will abide by international norms and make the right choice so that the trust-building process on the Korean Peninsula can move forward.  

The era of happiness that I envision is one that simultaneously unlocks an era of happiness on the Korean Peninsula while also contributing to ushering in an era of happiness throughout the global community.  

To ease tensions and conflicts and further spread peace and cooperation in Asia, I will work to strengthen trust with countries in the region including the United States, China, Japan, Russia and other Asian and Oceanic countries. 

Moreover, I envision a Korea that shares more deeply the travails of others while also contributing to the resolution of key global issues.

V/R

Dave

The full text of Park’s inaugural speech

http://nwww.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20130225000590

Published : 2013-02-25 11:35
Updated : 2013-02-25 18:24

Following is the full text of President Park Geun-hye's inauguration address - Ed.

“Opening a New Era of Hope”

My fellow Koreans and seven million fellow compatriots overseas,

As I take office as the 18th-term President of the Republic of Korea, I stand before you today determined to open a new era of hope.

I am profoundly grateful to the Korean people for entrusting this historic mission to me. I also thank President Lee Myung-bak, former Presidents, dignitaries who have come from abroad to celebrate this occasion, and other distinguished guests for their presence.

As President of the Republic of Korea, I will live up to the will of the people by achieving economic rejuvenation, the happiness of the people, and the flourishing of our culture.

I will do my utmost to building a Republic of Korea that is prosperous and where happiness is felt by all Koreans.

Fellow citizens,

The Republic of Korea as we know it today has been built on the blood, toil, and sweat of the people.

We have written a new history of extraordinary achievement combining industrialization and democratization based on the unwavering “can do” spirit of our people and matching resolve.

The Korean saga that is often referred to as the “Miracle on the Han River” was written on the heels of our citizens who worked tirelessly in the mines of Germany, in the torrid deserts of the Middle East, in factories and laboratories where the lights were never turned off, and in the freezing frontlines safeguarding our national defense.

This miracle was only possible due to the outstanding caliber of our people and their unstinting devotion to both family and country.

I pay my heartfelt tribute to all fellow Koreans who have made the Republic of Korea what it is today.

(Continued at the link below)

http://nwww.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20130225000590

Park Geun-hye Takes the Reigns

This is pretty good overview of the challenges that President Park faces as she takes office this week.  There is also some wishful thinking on the author's part (though I too wish for many of the same things, I am probably not as optimistic as the author).

V/R

Dave

Park Geun-hye Takes the Reigns

http://thediplomat.com/2013/02/23/park-geun-hye-takes-the-reigns/?all=true

February 23, 2013

By Gregg Brazinsky

Park enters office in South Korea facing a daunting array of domestic and foreign policy challenges. She may very well prove up to the task.

The challenges that will face newly elected South Korean president Park Geun-hye when she takes office are daunting. She is the first woman to lead what has been one of the world’s mostmale-dominated governments. She must contend with the controversial legacy of her father, Park Chung Hee, a long-ruling dictator revered as the driving force behind South Korea’s economic miracle but reviled for brutally suppressing the opposition. And she must keep the nation safe and prosperous in an era of escalating regional tensions and financial turmoil. Should she fail at any of these tasks, she will have to contend with a notoriously unforgiving political culture. None of her four democratically elected predecessors left office with a high approval rating.

While the new president’s mettle will unquestionably be tested, there are reasons to believe that she can rise to the challenge. Great leaders confront difficulties with equanimity and make the bold moves necessary to break through obstacles to change.  Park has already demonstrated these abilities in the arena of domestic politics. After first being elected to the National Assembly in 1998, she repeatedly trounced her opponents at the ballot box and eventually rose to a position of leadership in the ruling Saenuri Party (formerly known as the Grand National Party). During election years when her party was mired in scandal and the opposition seemed poised to make significant gains, Park engineered surprising victories at the polls that enabled the conservatives to retain power. These impressive performances led the South Korean media to call her “The Queen of Elections.”

Throughout Park’s rise to the top she has gracefully weathered personal attacks, maintaining an almost unflappable demeanor. The success of Park’s presidency will hinge on whether she can transfer her consummate skills as a politician to the realm of policymaking.

In the international arena, Park’s most pressing challenge will be the ever-intractable regime in Pyongyang. The country’s enigmatic leader Kim Jong-un has made clear his determination to remain a thorn in the side of both Seoul and Washington. If the ROK does not act quickly, Pyongyang’s saber rattling will threaten not only the stability of the Korean peninsula, but also all of Northeast Asia.

As president, Park plans to tackle the North Korea problem by pursuing what she has called “trustpolitik,” meaning the establishment of “mutually binding expectations based on global norms.” Since the end of the Cold War the pendulum of South Korean policy toward its northern rival has swung back and forth between engagement and containment with neither approach producing meaningful change. Park has sensibly called for a more strategic mixing of sticks and carrots that will encourage good behavior and deter aggression.     

Is there any reason to believe that Park can succeed where her predecessors have failed so ignominiously? Perhaps. Conservative political leaders who seek rapprochement with rival governments while maintaining a credible deterrent are sometimes more successful at achieving meaningful reconciliation than their progressive opponents. After all, it took Richard Nixon, who rose to national prominence as an anti-Communist Congressman, to go to China in 1972.

The best chance for bringing Pyongyang to the negotiating table and keeping it there probably lies in a similar combination of deterrence and engagement. Changing the mindset of North Korea’s leaders is far beyond the capabilities of any South Korean president. But there is always the possibility that Pyongyang — like Beijing and Hanoi — will one day acknowledge that greater engagement with the rest of the world serves its interests more than isolationism and militarism. If and when it does so, a consistent and pragmatic approach like the one that Park advocates will have the best chance of encouraging the DPRK’s peaceful evolution while minimizing backtracking.    

Rising tensions between China and Japan represent another potential danger for Park Geun-hye’s government. Koreans have long used an old adage to describe the impact of conflicts among their larger neighbors on the peninsula: When whales fight the shrimp gets crushed. Seoul has good reason to fear that this proverb will again prove relevant should Beijing and Tokyo come to blows over the disputed Diaoyu-Senkaku islands. The last time China and Japan forces clashed in the East China Sea was during the Sino-Japanese War of 1895 — a conflict in which Korea suffered even though it was not a combatant. During the war, Japan formally wrested Korea from China’s control but not before military engagements left Pyongyang and other Korean cities significantly damaged.       

For President Park, relations with China and Japan present a nettlesome quandary that will require her to strike a careful balance in her foreign policy. Popular sentiment will undoubtedly complicate the issue. On the one hand, Koreans have their own territorial dispute with Japan over Dokdo-Takeshima and, like the Chinese, have bitter memories of Japanese expansionism during World War II. On the other, Japan and South Korea are both important allies of the United States that share a common set of democratic values.  They are also both wary of China’s ambitions to assert itself as a regional power.

And yet President Park is not without leverage when it comes to handling this delicate situation. South Korea may not be the most powerful or wealthiest nation in the Pacific but it is among the most trusted. It has no history of territorial aggrandizement or hegemonic ambitions and is admired for its vibrant economy and dynamic popular culture. As a result, Seoul punches above its weight in international organizations. The key will be converting these assets into tangible achievements in trilateral relations.

(Continued at the link below)

http://thediplomat.com/2013/02/23/park-geun-hye-takes-the-reigns/?all=true

Is South Korea ready for "Madam President"?

And of course the question will be will the north Korean ballistic missile test launch affect the ROK Presidential election?

V/R

Dave

Is South Korea ready for "Madam President"?

6:16pm EST

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/11/us-korea-election-women-idUSBRE8BA1DZ20121211

By Ju-min Park

SEOUL (Reuters) - If Park Geun-hye wins South Korea's presidential election this month, as looks increasingly likely, she will become the first woman to hold the country's top office, challenging stereotypes in a nation that is largely run by men in blue suits.

A conservative who has 15 years experience as a top legislator and who has been dubbed "The Queen of Elections" for turning around the fortunes of her political party in a series of polls, Park says she took to politics to help save her country from the devastating Asian financial crisis of 1997-98.

Park, 60, is the daughter of South Korean dictator Park Chung-hee and has never married or had children, something her opponents have sought to highlight in a bid to cut back her lead in the polls ahead of the December 19 vote.

"Candidate Park has no femininity. She has never lived a life agonizing over childbirth, childcare, education and grocery prices," Park Kwang-on, a spokesman for her left-of-centre opponent, Moon Jae-in, said recently.

While South Korea has risen from the ashes of the 1950-53 Korean War to become the world's 14th richest nation in a generation, and large numbers of women attend its top universities, it ranks just 108th out of 135 countries in the World Economic Forum's 2012 index of gender equality.

As a whole, women earn 39 percent less than men, the largest gap in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) group of developed nations.

Just half of South Korean women with a university degree are in the workforce, in part because of policies that discriminate against mothers due to the country's seniority-based pay system.

But Park, at least according to the policies she has spelt out in her campaign, is not going to tackle these issues aggressively, or make a big difference to South Korean women, especially those who have to juggle work and children.

In the long-term, the failure to address the role of women in the labor force could hamper growth.

(Continued at the link below)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/12/11/us-korea-election-women-idUSBRE8BA1DZ20121211