In the South China Morning Post from two Chinese scholars. I am somewhat optimistic that we are finally seeing so many people acknowledging the need to PREPARE for north Korean regime collapse.
Pretty strong words from China.
Thus, while it is still hard to judge North Korea in full, there remains a high probability of regime collapse.Unless Pyongyang gives up its nuclear programme, the byungjin strategy is bound to fail.Even an economic recovery and improvement in people's livelihoods is unlikely to change this trend. Harsh sanctions have left many from the upper classes at odds with the leadership and led to a growing number of defectors. In the most recent case, 13 employees of a North Korean-run restaurant in Ningbo (寧波) defected to the South – the largest single group in the past decade.Meet the North Korean defector and restaurateur who believes 'reunification of our country starts at the table'Trouble usually arises within one's own boundaries. Once those who have benefited from the regime in the past start to become dissatisfied with the government and seek an escape route, the collapse of the Kim dynasty, built on the basis of lies and repression, is just around the corner. There may only be 10 to 15 years left for the Kim family to govern, and a collapse could begin at any time. So, how would such a scenario play out?
I have pasted my thoughts on collapse below. I would love to host a working group of military planners from the US. ROK. China, Russia, and Japan and put together a plan for each of the military contingents to present to their political leaders.
Collapse of the North Korean regime appears inevitable, and the world needs to prepare for it
Deng Yuwen and Huang Ting say the flimsy economic plan unveiled at the Workers' Party congress will do little to alleviate the country's crippling problems, which include severe food shortages and growing discontent
PUBLISHED : Wednesday, 18 May, 2016, 5:25pm
UPDATED : Wednesday, 18 May, 2016, 5:25pm
My thoughts as an outline/start point to begin planning discussions:
Korea and the future: Some Thoughts
The "Big 5"
2. Regime Collapse
3. Human Rights Atrocities/Crimes Against Humanity
4. Nuclear and Missile Delivery Programs
Big 8 Contingencies
1. Provocations to gain political and economic concessions
2. nk Attack – execution of the nK campaign plan to reunify the peninsula by force
3. Civil War/Chaos/Anarchy
4. Refugee crisis
5. Humanitarian Assistance/Disaster relief
6. WMD, loss of control – seize and secure operations
7. Resistance to foreign intervention (e.g., insurgency)
8. How to handle the nKPA during regime collapse short of war
7 Steps of Preparation
1. Shared vision – a new durable political arrangement** (see below)
2. Roles & Missions - national responsibilities for action
3. Organizational Framework for operations (UNC/ROK/US CFC, independent operations, other)
4. Command, Control, Coordination, and liaison processes & methods (including information sharing)
5. Concept of operations for deploying required forces (air, land, and sea)
6. Resource commitment – which countries provide what
7. And most important - information/psychological preparation of the environment – a sophisticated and aggressive information and influence activities campaign focused on the population to prepare then for the future (e.g., unification) and the "2d tier leadership" by using a combination of coercion and co-option. – An "exit strategy" for 2d tier military leaders and party members outside the core elite.
1. Defense of ROK is paramount – all decisions must support defense of ROK against the full range of threats from the north.
2. Must provide options to national policy makers – early decisions required to overcome the law of physics: time, distance, and space. Must have the right capabilities in the right place for employment at the right time.
3. Transparency is critical when dealing with the 5 Parties and international community. Must have decisive and consistent themes and messages. This is not the situation in which we should employ deception. Only through clear articulation of alliance priorities and intent can we have a chancing at reducing the chance of conflict due to misunderstanding of intentions. Examples for consideration (and these would be consistently expressed by the ROK/US Alliance.
A. Defense and Security of ROK is the number one priority.
B. UNC and ROK/US CFC have the following priorities:
(1) Security of nuclear weapons, followed by chemical weapons and then the biological program
(2) Security, health, and welfare of the Korean people living in the north.
(3) UNC and ROK/US CFC desire to work with all interested nations to bring security, stability and long term peace to the Korean peninsula and Northeast Asia.
(4) UNC and ROK/US CFC will support the establishment of a unified peninsula – a United Republic of Korea.
**Proposed new durable political arrangement: A stable, secure, peaceful, economically vibrant, non-nuclear peninsula, reunified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people: A United Republic of Korea (UROK) orUnited Republic of Corea (UROC)