a. Phase One: Resource Depletion - Economic collapse paradigm stresses across-the-board mistakes in domestic and foreign policies that contribute to inputs/outputs in a national production model (nKorea emphasizes heavy industry over light industry at an 8:2 ratio). Policy mistakes and subsequent failures in major components of the economy begin to impact infrastructure and economic sub-systems as major system-maintenance resources become unavailable.b. Phase Two: Prioritization - Quantity of resources becomes insufficient to supply/maintain each sub-system of infrastructure. Administration employs one or both of two policies of selective provision:- Selective provision policy one (SPP 1): Each sub-system receives proportionately less than minimum maintenance level; and/or:- Selective provision policy two (SPP 2): Selected sub-systems receive no resources whatsoever in order to provide subsistance levels to the other sub-systems.c. Phase Three: Local Independence - Realization of lack of subsistence or perceived near-term lack creates localized independent motivation to acquire subsistence materials, either individually or collectively, through intentional circumvention of established policy. Sub-system types are collective farms, factories and administrative units that are integrated units whereby workers/citizens acquire social identification.d. Phase Four: Suppression - Empirically, localized independent economic activity implies a corresponding level of independent political intention. This in turn is perceived by the Core Group as violation of state (read Core Group) policies and threatening to Core Group control. National I/S assets will be employed with maximum, even indiscriminate, powers necessary to suppress actions that are in contradiction, or perceived to be in contradiction, of state policies. This is the most pivotal of phases. Successful suppression is critical to regime/Core Group survival and the continuation their policies. The lack of success in suppression implies success in resistance. e. Phase Five: Resistance - Based on success of suppression (or lack thereof), sub-system groups and/or individual leaders (as opposed to individuals) will elevate levels of resistance both horizontally and vertically, organizationally and violently. f. Phase Six: Fracture - Progression to this phase is difficult without an extreme amount of violence occurring beforehand. Increased and confident organizational resistance, from the local level upward, will move Core Group members (read military leaders with real power or influential civilians allied with real military power as opposed to mere influential leaders) to splinter into sub-groups. These sub-groups splinter because of opposing views in dealing with the resistance. The splinter process will be consistent with korean political socialization (loyalty based on family, association and/or classmate, regionalism). g. Phase Seven: Realignment - Should suppression fail and the fracture phase be reached, a realignment of national leadership will be unavoidable. The elimination of the entire Core Group is not likely. New national leadership will find it necessary to implement immediate reform consistent with its support base. Realignment of the national leadership does not mean immediate peaceful unification with the Republic of Korea.
N.Korean Elite 'Getting Restive'
A source said Kim Jong-un recently presided over a meeting on bolstering North Korea's power supply and called for more hydro-electric power plants, but senior officials claimed that the North's chronic power shortage can be resolved only by building nuclear plants.
"Kim was furious and fired them on the spot, stripping them of their ranks," the source added.
As North Korea forfeited international support to build a light-water reactor after its nuclear test, Kim has been focusing on constructing large-scale hydro-electric projects like the Heecheon and Chongchon river dams.
But officials insist that will not be enough to solve the chronic electricity shortage.
A growing number of soldiers are disgruntled over being roped into labor in construction projects like a ski resort in Masikryong which is one of Kim's pet projects.
Another source said, "One high-ranking military officer was caught complaining about several new construction projects Kim Jong-un proposed in his New Year's address and was punished."
North Koreans are apparently disaffected because Kim was spotted flashing broad grins in public after a high-rise apartment collapsed in Pyongyang in May, killing around 400 members of the elite.
One foreign businessman who visited Pyongyang early this month said, "When Kim Jong-il was in power, North Koreans of all ranks parroted the same opinions, but this time it was different. There were quite a lot of North Koreans who complained about Kim Jong-un and senior party and military officials."