Informal Institute for National Security Thinkers and Practitioners - News from the Associate Director, Security Studies Program
Monday, August 5, 2013
Al Qaeda's Uncertain Future by Bruce Hoffman
Perhaps a timely look at Al Qaeda given recent events. He takes to task those who have predicted the demise of AQ and of course he was saying so long before recent events (not this article as written months ago). The abstract is below and the full text can be accessed at the link. Also you can download the PDF version from this link: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/pdf/10.1080/1057610X.2013.802973 or from my drop box at this link: http://db.tt/4PYM5toW (Full disclosure: Bruce is my boss) V/R Dave
This article considers the current state of the Al Qaeda terrorist movement and its likely future trajectory. It considers the principle assumptions both today and in the past about Al Qaeda and how they affect our understanding of the movement and the threat that it poses; Al Qaeda's current capacity for violence; and its ability to plan strategically and implement terrorist operations. The article further identifies nine key change drivers that will likely determine Al Qaeda's fate in the years to come before concluding that, even while the core Al Qaeda group may be in decline, Al Qaeda-ism, the movement's ideology, continues to resonate and attract new adherents. In sum, it argues that Al Qaeda remains an appealing brand most recently and most especially to extremist groups in North and West Africa and the Levant.