Showing posts with label Reunification. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Reunification. Show all posts

Tuesday, April 1, 2014

KOREA: STRATEGIC PATIENCE = STRATEGIC PARALYSIS: Finding the Ideal Path to Reunification to Solve the Nuclear and Human Rights Issues

For the entire essay please go to War on the Rocks: http://warontherocks.com/2014/04/korea-strategic-patience-strategic-paralysis/
Korea: Strategic Patience = Strategic Paralysis

KOREA: STRATEGIC PATIENCE = STRATEGIC PARALYSIS

April 1, 2014 · in 
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Korea: Strategic Patience = Strategic Paralysis
Finding the Ideal Path to Reunification to Solve the Nuclear and Human Rights Issues
“Strategic Patience,” America’s approach to North Korea, has only gotten us strategic paralysis. If the desired effects are changing North Korean behavior, fostering good faith efforts towards denuclearization, and restarting the six party talks, Washington cannot point to any real successes. There are two major challenges in North Korea: the regime’s nuclear weapons program and its human rights atrocities. There is also the threat of war and the effects of regime collapse. The United States has worked for twenty years to try to end North Korea’s nuclear program and the United Nations just published its comprehensive Commission of Inquiry report on the abhorrent human rights violations being committed in the North. Yet neither of these efforts has or will likely result in changes in this troublesome country, or the achievement of objectives desired by the U.S. and the international community.
Elimination of the nuclear program or liberating North Korea by force are not options, as the second and third order effects would be too severe to the Republic of Korea, the region, and the world. Some policymakers rely on China to influence the North to end its nuclear program and wait patiently for the regime to change its behavior; however, this has not achieved the desired effects to date.
Why haven’t we gotten anywhere? Based on our knowledge of the nature of the Kim family’s regime and its strategy, it is clear that North Korea will not give up its nuclear program under any circumstances, and the horrendous human rights atrocities will not end as long as the Kim regime remains in power. If that is the case, the question is this: what policies and strategy should the United States and the Republic of Korea develop and implement?
The answer lies in the 2009 U.S–ROK Joint Vision Statement that says the Republic of Korea and United States will seek peaceful reunification of the Korean Peninsula. This vision was reaffirmed in May 2013 when South Korean President Park Geun-hye and President Obama met in Washington. Reunification has long been overlooked—seen as a distant dream—discounted because of the disparity between North and South, or viewed as an exclusively Korean problem. Little international attention has been paid to reunification and even less planning and no preparation made, save for the work that the Republic of Korea has done over the years.
But it is time to recognize that no change will occur on the Korean Peninsula unless there is reunification, and that the international community, and in particular the United States, should stand behind and assist the Republic of Korea in developing a path to reunification.
Some will ask how we can think about reunification when there is the threat of provocation, regime collapse, and conventional and nuclear war from North Korea. The common belief is that as long as these threats exist, there can be no possibility of reunification, let alone peacefulreunification. However, this is the very thinking that has led to the current strategic paralysis when it comes to addressing the North Korean problem.
The ideal path to peaceful reunification is built on respect, reconciliation, reform, rebuilding, and reunification (R5). The operative word is ideal. Some will immediately discount this as a mere dream; however, such a path can form the basis of a strategy and supporting campaign plan that provides multiple benefits even if peaceful reunification is not achieved in the near-term.
We should defer to (and support) the reunification plan of the Republic of Korea as President Park has initially described in her speech in Dresdenon March 28, 2014. In addition to the points made in her speech, the ideal reunification plan that we should support will likely reflect several key objectives:
  • Develop a comprehensive information operations and influence campaign to inform the North Korean population about the outside world and educate about the benefits or reunification.
  • Establish peninsula-wide land ownership policies to include compensation vice recompense for those with pre-1948 claims in the North.
  • Develop military integration plans with specific focus on how the two militaries will be integrated and how senior military leaders will be treated if they support reunification.
  • Conduct detailed planning for infrastructure development and identify required government and non-government investment.
  • Conduct detailed planning for economic transition and ultimately integration.
  • Conduct detailed planning for the integration of governmental/administration functions.
  • Conduct comprehensive diplomatic coordination for international cooperation for support of reunification.
Again, these are just some of highlights of an ideal and desired path to reunification. While we should strive to follow this path, the Kim regime has a vote and for various reasons may not agree. Unfortunately, there are three other paths that the North could pursue, any of which could be more likely than an embrace of the principles of an ideal reunification plan.
Bottom up internal resistance to the regime appears to be growing among parts of North Korea’s population and even within the periphery of the political elite and military. This could create the first alternative to the ideal reunification path.  Such resistance should be monitored, assessed, understood, and possibly supported, to include through an unconventional warfare campaign led by the Republic of Korea. Although it is unlikely to lead an “Arab Spring” phenomenon, given the regime suppression mechanism, it is still possible and cannot be discounted.  Such grassroots resistance could lead to a coup that might then seek reunification with the South. The danger with internal resistance is that it can lead to conflict within the North, which could grow out of control and spill over into the Republic of Korea. However, if there was a regime change, with or without conflict, there would eventually be opportunity to get back on the ideal path to reunification. All the planning and preparation that has been previously conducted would still have value after regime change that followed from internal resistance.
(Continued at the link below)

Wednesday, March 26, 2014

Park wins Germany's promise to provide support for Korean unification

Now if we can get US support for unification (of course we have stated the alliance joint vision as peaceful unification since 2009 but I think most Americans and many policy makers and strategists are unaware of that and the question should be what are we doing to support the ROK as it develops its plan for unification?).

Park wins Germany's promise to provide support for Korean unification

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/national/2014/03/26/31/0301000000AEN20140326008752315F.html

2014/03/27 07:27
By Chang Jae-soon
BERLIN, March 26 (Yonhap) -- South Korean President Park Geun-hye and German Chancellor Angela Merkel agreed Wednesday to work closely together to share lessons of German unification as Seoul tries to chart a course for its own unification with North Korea.
South Korean President Park Geun-hye and German Chancellor Angela Merkel hold a joint news conference in Berlin on March 26. (Yonhap)

South Korean President Park Geun-hye and German Chancellor Angela Merkel hold a joint news conference in Berlin on March 26. (Yonhap)

How to share Germany's experience of ending decades of national division and promoting unity in a unified nation were among the main topics for talks between Park and Merkel, along with North Korea's nuclear program and economic cooperation between the two countries.
"For us, Germany is a model for peaceful unification on the Korean Peninsula because the country has gone beyond unification and achieved national unity," Park said during a joint news conference with Merkel. "We agreed to share Germany's experiences in an effective manner."

   Park laid out a series of measures the two sides agreed on for experience sharing, including building cooperative networks between financial authorities and economic think tanks in order to study how to raise the funds necessary for unification.
Merkel also said Germany will provide full support for Korean unification.
"Discussions on unification are under way between the foreign ministries of South Korea and Germany, and we will provide support so that unification will be realized in Korea," she said. "Germany was divided for 40 years and Korea has been divided for almost 70 years. I think it is our obligation to help South Korea achieve unification."

   Park arrived in Berlin on Tuesday night from The Hague, where she attended an international anti-nuclear terrorism conference and held a series of meetings on its sidelines, including trilateral talks with U.S. President Barack Obama and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe.
Unification is the main theme of the four-day visit to the European nation. Park could also unveil a new vision for unification when she visits the former East German economic center of Dresden later this week. She will be the first South Korean president to visit a city in former East Germany.
South Korean leaders have sometimes used trips to Germany to announce new proposals or policies on North Korea. In 2000, former President Kim Dae-jung issued the "Berlin Declaration," calling for the end of the Cold War on the Korean Peninsula and lasting peace between the two sides.
In recent months, Park has made strong pitches for unification, saying it would be an economic "bonanza" for the two Koreas as well as a blessing for neighboring countries. She also ordered the creation of a presidential committee to prepare for unification.
Merkel said Wednesday that German unification was also a bonanza (glucksfall in German).
"I would say that I myself am a product of unification," said Merkel, Germany's first East German-born chancellor. "I spent my childhood in former East Germany, and the event of the Berlin Wall falling changed the lives of 17 million people in former East Germany."

   Merkel also said unification would become easier if sufficient economic preparations are made.
North Korea's nuclear program was also a key topic for Park's talks with Merkel.
"With regard to the North Korean nuclear issue, the two countries agreed to work together to get North Korea to become a responsible member of the international community based on the stern and consistent principle that a nuclear North Korea is unacceptable," she said.
Park praised Germany for winning trust from neighboring countries with thorough repentance for its wartime wrongdoing, saying the European nation is a good example for three Northeast Asian nations mired in a row over history issues.
Merkel said it was because history issues were settled that the European integration was realized. She also said it takes courage and a forward-looking attitude to resolve history issues, according to Seoul's senior presidential foreign affairs secretary Ju Chul-ki.
The two leaders also agreed to further expand trade and investment while noting that last year's bilateral trade volume reached an all-time high of US$27.2 billion. On the sidelines of the summit, five memorandums of understanding were signed to call for greater cooperation on industrial technologies.
Park and Merkel have forged a personal bond since they first met in 2000 when Park visited Germany as the leader of the then-opposition party. Merkel was also the first foreign head of state to call Park to congratulate her on winning the 2012 presidential election.
Wednesday's talks were their fifth meeting.
Unification was also a main topic for Park's talks with German President Joachim Gauck earlier Wednesday.
"As in the case of German unification, our unification will never be easy, but I will make preparations one by one with a firm conviction that unification will surely come," Park said. "I firmly believe that there will come a day when our cease-fire line will fall."

   Also Wednesday, Park visited the Brandenburg Gate, a symbol of German unification, in a move underscoring her commitment to unification. She visited Berlin City Hall for a meeting with Mayor Klaus Wowereit and laid a wreath at the Neue Wache war memorial before holding talks with Chancellor Angela Merkel.
During the meeting with the mayor, Park said that Berlin has become the center of Europe after unification and is a city that gives hope for South Koreans. She also said she is very much envious of Berlin citizens freely coming and going between the formerly divided city.
"I hope a day like this will come on the Korean Peninsula as soon as possible," she said.
(END)

Monday, March 3, 2014

Unification on Agenda as Leaders Meet in Seoul

A very timely article (for those who focus on Korea and NE Asia, not for those focusing on Ukraine and Russia of course).

It is time for the international community to come to the realization that the Kim Family Regime will not give up its nuclear weapons and that human rights atrocities will continue as long as the Kim Family Regime remains in control in north Korea.  

It has become time to take seriously the ROK's planning for unification and for the international community to support that planning (and all the necessary preparation).  Former Prime Minister Julia Gillard sums it up well:

Whether or not unification should go ahead is something only Koreans themselves can decide, Gillard posited, before pointing out that two key points stand out when predicting the regional implications of Korean reunification.  That is, the end of North Korea as a nuclear state and the termination of what can only be deemed  a “humanitarian tragedy.” With regard to the possibility of unification, she continued, the international community would be well-advised to “hope for the best and prepare for the worst.”  


Unification on Agenda as Leaders Meet in Seoul

Grace Smith
2014-03-03 20:38 
World leaders of past and present gathered today in Seoul for the 5th Asian Leadership Conference to discuss the myriad challenges currently facing the region.  Hosted by South Korean daily the Chosun Ilbo, the conference featured a lineup of movers and shakers from the Northeast Asian sphere, brought together to discuss  North Korea and prospects for unification under the theme of  “One Korea, New Asia.”

 “North Korea is the last frontier in the global economic system,” CEO of Chosun Ilbo Sang Hoon Bang noted in his opening address.  
President Park Geun Hye echoed Sang's sentiment, reaffirming her stance that unification would prove to be a “jackpot” for South Korea and the wider East Asian region.  “We must turn the peninsula into a land of hope,” she said.

Former U.S. President George W. Bush expressed his support for the “noble effort” of unifying the peninsula.  “This new, open dialogue on unification is a very positive development,” he said, but warned that that such a vision requires a great deal of patience.  Naturally, unification requires the will of both parties.  As such, its realization will largely depend on what extent Kim Jong Eun views unification as a potential gain.  “How deep is the propaganda in North Korea?” Bush concluded.  “How long will it take for that to wash out of the system?”
In a panel entitled “The Vision of ‘One Korea’: Search for a global architecture,” a number of prominent politicians provided their own personal take on the potential for a reunified Korea.

Although both nations were artificially divided, this is where the comparisons stop for Korea and Germany, former Prime Minister of the German Democratic Republic Lothar de Maiziere believes.  Prior to the events of 1989, there had been much doubt in Germany over whether or not the country would ever reunify, he explained.  “The Berlin Wall did not simply collapse. Rather, the people made it happen.  Unification was only possible due to the will of the East Germans themselves.”

Former Prime Minister of Australia Julia Gillard posed three questions to the audience.  Firstly, should unification occur? What would a unified peninsula mean for the region? And finally, what are the prospects of such an event occurring?  Whether or not unification should go ahead is something only Koreans themselves can decide, Gillard posited, before pointing out that two key points stand out when predicting the regional implications of Korean reunification.  That is, the end of North Korea as a nuclear state and the termination of what can only be deemed  a “humanitarian tragedy.” With regard to the possibility of unification, she continued, the international community would be well-advised to “hope for the best and prepare for the worst.”  “North Koreans have more to gain than to fear in joining the international community,” she concluded.

The formation of an East Asian community based on open regional cooperation is vital at this current juncture, former Prime Minister of Japan Yukio Hatoyama believes.  At the same time as expressing his regret that, “the South Korean government does not view Japan as important as other nations when it comes to its North Korea strategy,” Hatoyama confirmed his support for Park Geun Hye’s focus on trust-building with the North and her motion to establish a Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative.

Former United States Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta argued that the key to a unified Korea lies in strength; namely, strong bilateral relations with South Korea and China.  “We must not underestimate who we are dealing with.  North Korea is cruel, aggressive, uncertain and unpredictable, and they are pursuing aggressive steps throughout the region,” he warned.

Assessing the relationship between the United States and North Korea as one of a series of “provocation and accommodation,” he reaffirmed that the only way to confront such a regime is with displays of strength, including the continuation of joint military exercises. “It is important to show North Korea that the international community is unified in its approach toward it.  The best possible way to ensure such unity is through such strength,” he stated.

Any progress on the Korean peninsula will require “complete and verifiable denuclearization,” he further noted.  “North Korea must abide by international rules and regulations. Until then they can only be seen as a threat, an enemy and a potential attacker.”

South Korea’s Minister of Unification Ryoo Kihl Jae explained that the current administration’s approach to the North is “deductive” in that the goal has been set, and now they are working to achieve it.  “The two Koreas must establish a clear identity…one that encompasses a communal mindset,” he said, before adding, “The North must choose to become a fully-fledged member of the international community. They currently lie at the center of the Asian paradox.”

Wednesday, January 22, 2014

Jackpot or Crackpot? Park on Korean Reunification

Dr. Foster is providing the conventional wisdom.  But his fundamental assumption must be examined:

Common sense says that the two massive initial outlays required – raising Northern incomes and rebuilding infrastructure – will constitute a prolonged and crushing fiscal burden, even if both are ultimately in part also investments: in human and physical capital respectively.

We should consider how the ROK plans to achieve reunification.   A more realistic assumption is that it is going to take a generation or more to undo the extreme damage that has been done to the north Korean people and to the physical infrastructure.  Yes it is going to be expensive and yes it is going to be hard and more importantly it is going to be necessary and the right thing to do.  The key is really the ROK plans for unification and an understanding of the realistic timelines for changing the conditions in the north.  Most importantly the plans should not assume immediate absorption but a gradual transition from two systems, to a confederal system to a unified country while working to change the economic system and developing the infrastructure.  I do agree with President Park that reunification could be a jackpot.  Think about the planned cities that the ROK has built (e.g.,New Sango city near Incheon airport).  Think of being able to conduct deliberate planning for the north to develop the right industries in the right places while exploiting (in a positive way) the natural resources of the north.  I am willing to bet that the Korean people can make reunification work.
V/R
Dave
  • January 22, 2014, 6:10 PM


Jackpot or Crackpot? Park on Korean Reunification

By Aidan Foster-Carter

Getty Images
South Korean President Park Geun-hye speaks during a press conference at the Presidential Office on January 6, 2014 in Seoul. Ms. Park outlined her policy plans for the new year.
The demure Park Geun-hye rarely startles. Yet South Korea’s president did just that on Jan. 6.
In her first press conference after almost a year as president, Ms. Park raised eyebrows by calling Korean unification a “jackpot”. The usual fear of vast costs has it wrong, she argued. Rather, this will be “a chance for the economy to make a huge leap.”
She didn’t elaborate, but cited Jim Rogers in support. The US.. investment guru reiterated his own bullishness on a joint Korean future on Jan. 14: “… South Korea’s capital and technical skills, and North Korea’s labor and natural resources, [can] make Korea grow exponentially.”
Park’s jackpot talk gained her rare praise from the South Korean liberal opposition. Democratic Party leader Kim Han-gil said he was “glad [she] helped break the common misconception that reunification is a cost.” But Kim added a crucial condition: “Only a gradual and peaceful reunification is a blessing. Reunification by absorption [after] a sudden change in North Korea could be a catastrophe.” Or to be more technical, reunification will be path-dependent.
All this taps into a long-running debate. Conventional wisdom views Korean reunification by whatsoever means as hugely expensive. A year ago Seoul’s Ministry of Strategy and Finance  put the cost at 7% of GDP for a decade, or $80 billion annually. Other estimates run much higher. Four years ago in The Wall Street Journal, Peter Beck reckoned $2 to $5 trillion, over 30 years.
Common sense says that the two massive initial outlays required – raising Northern incomes and rebuilding infrastructure – will constitute a prolonged and crushing fiscal burden, even if both are ultimately in part also investments: in human and physical capital respectively.
The obvious real-life precedent supports this. By 2009 German reunification had cost $1.9 trillion, even though the initial West-East GDP gap was far less than in Korea. South Korea’s central bank puts South Korea’s GDP in 2012 as 38 times the North’s, or 19:1 per capita.
Yet Park can cite Goldman Sachs on her side. A 2009 research paper predicted that by 2050 a unified Korea could have the world’s eighth largest GDP, overtaking Germany and Japan. Its author, Kwon Goo-hoon, posits China and Hong Kong as a better model than Germany.
Contrarianism is always welcome, but two big questions arise. Kwon’s premise “assume(s) a peaceful and gradual economic integration between North and South Korea”. That’s like the one about the scientists stranded on a desert island with only an old-style can of baked beans. The physicist can’t open it, but the economist has the answer: “Let us assume a can-opener.”
(Continued at the link below)

Saturday, January 18, 2014

Kim Jong Un’s $5 trillion price worth unification’s benefits

An anecdote:  Back in 1997 or 1998 when we were briefing the planning efforts for CONPLAN 5029 for north Korean Collapse and Instability we had a briefing with the DEPSECDEF, John Hamre.  After we describe the threats, possible scenarios, and contingency plans for each scenario he turn to me and said he had only one question.  "How much will this cost the US government?"  I was taken aback.  We had done a lot of detailed contingency planning but had never considered the cost to the USG. I gave him the only answer I could.  "Sir, I do not have any idea."  He replied, "Well I am the DEPSECDEF and my portfolio is budget and resources and I have to know how this is going to cost."  I told him we would get back to him.  And I am sure I still owe him an answer so perhaps I will send him this article as a partial response.
V/R
Dave

Kim Jong Un’s $5 trillion price worth unification’s benefits

BY WILLIAM PESEK
BLOOMBERG
As Park Geun-hye searches for ways to compete with China and Japan, the South Korean president is eyeing a rather surprising ally: Kim Jong Un.
“Unification will allow the Korean economy to take a fresh leap forward and inject great vitality and energy,” Park said on Jan. 10. “People would even sing, ‘We dream of unification even in our dreams.’ “
The idea isn’t as dippy as it sounds. Economists generally rate Park’s first year in office as a dud. She arrived at the presidential Blue House with big talk of building a more “creative” economy. Yet her plans to empower small and medium-size companies and to rein in the family-run conglomerates, or chaebol, that dominate the economy remain embryonic.
As her second year begins, Park must accelerate efforts to restructure Korea’s outdated and top-heavy growth model. Folding unification into the strategy is audacious. In theory, combining the South’s capital and technology with the North’s human and natural resources could create a powerful growth engine.
Of course, this entire discussion hinges on Kim’s willingness to remove the soldiers, artillery and barbed wire that continue to line the demilitarized zone. Kim’s recent purge of his No. 2, Jang Song Thaek, suggests the 30-something dictator has no interest in rapprochement. Convincing the Dear Leader to turn his back on Stalin and face capitalism will be no easy sell.
Park could face an equally tough sales challenge with her own people, who have less and less interest in dealing with the Kim Dynasty.
I was in Seoul in April 2013 when Kim precipitated what many characterized as Park’s Cuban missile crisis. His threats to carry out pre-emptive nuclear strikes against the U.S. and South Korea had governments around the globe on edge, markets gyrating and credit-rating companies ready to pounce. For young Koreans — those for whom war in the 1950s is the stuff of dry textbook passages and who feel little connection to those above the 38th parallel — it was the last straw.
The share of South Koreans who view unification as necessary fell to 54.8 percent in 2013 from 57 percent a year earlier, according to Seoul National University. The ratio is falling more precipitously among Koreans ages 19 to 29 — to a scant 40.4 percent.
The under-30 crowd worries primarily about bearing the cost of reunification. Absorbing 24 million impoverished people who’ve never had a bank account, touched a decent computer or visited a modern dentist would be a breathtaking challenge. In February, Park’s Finance Ministry vastly low-balled the price tag. Anyone who thinks this can be done for $591 billion or less if the process occurred around 2020 is as delusional as a North Korean peasant convinced that Kim is God.
Take the long-standing $2 trillion to $5 trillion estimate by North Korea experts, including Peter Beck of the Washington- based Atlantic Council. Even these guesstimates are likely to prove very conservative as reunification begins.
Pyongyang is a complete black box. Really, Dennis Rodman knows more about the state of play there than World Bank President Jim Yong Kim. There also are no precedents. Germany’s reunification, for example, was far less daunting, and even there costs vastly exceeded estimates, having reached at least $2 trillion so far. East Germans in 1990 were infinitely more plugged in to the global economy than North Koreans are now. Nor did they suffer from crushing poverty.
West German officials didn’t have to worry about a big store of nuclear weapons just on the other side of the Wall, or more than a million brainwashed and agitated soldiers. Given how disastrously dissolving Iraq’s military went, this must be handled wisely.
Reunification won’t pay for itself. Sure, North Korea has coal, copper, gold, manganese, tungsten, uranium, zinc and other underground riches. But big checks will have to be written by South Korea, the U.S., Japan, Europe and, of course, China, Kim’s main enabler. China will hate Park’s push to join forces with Kim’s people. It would put American boots right on China’s northeast border and rob the Communist Party of a key means of keeping Washington and Tokyo off balance.
(Continue to the article at the link below)

Saturday, January 11, 2014

"Jackpot" Unification Comes with Caveats

The author Lee Ae Ran could be advocating for an unconventional warfare campaign plan (I would be happy to write one for her).  Conclusion:

Conversely, if North Korea continues as it is, unification would not be the jackpot. Unification of a different sort; a phased unification, or a confederation of states as hypothesized elsewhere, would be ruinous for all concerned.

The Republic of Korea must stop hesitating and complete the struggle to extend liberal democracy to the territory of North Korea. That is the way forward. It is my hope that President Park will open the way to liberal democratic unification during her term. Only then will unification truly be the jackpot.


"Jackpot" Unification Comes with Caveats

Lee Ae Ran, President, North Korean Traditional Food Culture Research Institute  |  2014-01-10 21:38
In her January 6th press conference, President Park Geun Hye said that unification would be something akin to hitting the jackpot. For me, unification is an opportunity to achieve the prosperity and development of the Korean Peninsula. President Park’s comments were cut from a similar cloth.

And yet we have been talking for some time about the “price of unification.” It is unclear where the figures come from, but a raft of academic, political and economic analyses have come out with astronomical calculations for the total cost of unification. These have caused ordinary Koreans to worry about the potential harm unification could do, and even the possible bankruptcy of a unified Korea.

As a consequence, many South Koreans now have sympathy for the position of those scholars and Sunshine Policy supporters who contend that it would be better to avoid the risk of an economically burdensome unification; rather, they would prefer to go on in the current manner while giving economic assistance to North Korea. This position is shaped by the belief that the price of reunification will fall if South Korea pours assistance into North Korea beforehand. 

During ten years of liberal government in pursuit of this very goal, Sunshine Policy theorists handed over many hundreds of millions of dollars to Kim Jong Il and poured taxpayers’ money into North Korea at any sign of trouble. North Korean expectations rose; they got accustomed to the generosity. The cost of doing business rose commensurately, too; Kim Jong Il’s ransom became more expensive. An absurd situation unfolded: there were people visiting North Korea to flatter Kim Jong Il and have their picture taken standing next to him.

Even now there are some scholars and unification experts who cleave to this Sunshine Policy approach, explaining that reunification must be achieved slowly and through economic means; in other words, by affluent South Korea aiding unfortunate North Korea. Inter-Korean exchanges, economic cooperation and dialogue are essential, they say.

Despite the fact that the only things we obtained from ten years of left wing government propping up [North Korea] were nuclear developments and missiles, such people never mention for how long we must help the North, how much help we must give them, or how much better North Korea’s economy must become before its political system will change.  

In reality, however, the North Korean economic crisis wouldn’t be solved even if South Korea provided support for a million years. The unification we want might never come about.

The economic crisis in North Korea today is a result of the errors of socialist and communist systems coupled to a hereditary Suryeongist dictatorship that defends that very system. No matter how much money North Korea may accumulate, unless the feudal dynastic system that deprives the North Korean people of their freedoms and human rights changes, those same people will continue to live in hunger. There will be no overcoming North Korea’s economic crisis, and, in the end, there is no nuclear solution without a solution to the difficulties of the North Korean people.

In which case, what is to be done?

The Republic of Korea must change its unification policy, strategy and tactics.

It was possible for the Republic of Korea to become the affluent state that it is today because of the liberal democratic system that President Rhee Syngman founded and the passionate, patriotic desire of President Park Chung Hee to see the people living well. If the two Koreas were unified under such a liberal democratic system then it would indeed be a golden opportunity.

Changing President Park’s “unification is the jackpot” comment slightly, we can say that “unification with North Korea under a liberal democratic system is the jackpot.”

Accordingly, what today’s North Korea needs is a liberal democratic system. If liberal democracy were established in North Korea, the people would develop an advanced, affluent nation even without external help. Naturally, if the capital, technologies and experiences of the Republic of Korea, which overcame its trials via liberal democracy and industrialization, modernization and advancement, were to buttress that process then it would take place all the more quickly.

Conversely, if North Korea continues as it is, unification would not be the jackpot. Unification of a different sort; a phased unification, or a confederation of states as hypothesized elsewhere, would be ruinous for all concerned.

The Republic of Korea must stop hesitating and complete the struggle to extend liberal democracy to the territory of North Korea. That is the way forward. It is my hope that President Park will open the way to liberal democratic unification during her term. Only then will unification truly be the jackpot.

* The views expressed in Guest Columns are independent and not necessarily those of Daily NK.

Friday, January 10, 2014

Reunification 'Would Boost Korea's Credit'

This is pretty significant If the credit industry has confidence in reunification.

Reunification 'Would Boost Korea's Credit'

Global investment banks predict that Korea reunification would benefit the country's credit rating as constant cross-border tensions end.

The view is shared by Citibank, Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, Macquarie and Morgan Stanley.

The Chosun Ilbo asked the six for their outlook for Korea's sovereign credit rating, national brand value and economic health following reunification. With the exception of Morgan Stanley, they forecast the country's sovereign credit rating would rise by more than two notches.

Morgan Stanley noted that reunification costs would add to the fiscal burden but projected the sovereign credit rating would rise at least one notch over the mid to long-term.

South Korea's sovereign credit rating according to the Fitch ratings firm stands at AA- at present and would go up to AA+, just one notch below the top rating of AAA and the same as the U.K. and France. 

It would be the fourth-highest credit rating after the U.S., Germany and Singapore and two notches above Japan.

Yoon Deok-ryong at the Korea Institute for International Economic Policy said, "The North Korea security risk has always been a main reason for demerits in evaluations by international ratings firms, so when that disappears, foreign direct investment, which remains the lowest among OECD member nations, could surge."
englishnews@chosun.com / Jan. 10, 2014 11:02 KST

Wednesday, November 13, 2013

Reunification of Koreas may not be inevitable

Mr. Hoare provides an interesting historical perspective.  However, while reunification will no doubt be difficult and fraught with conflict, I still believe that while not inevitable it is the best way to ensure long term stability in Northeast Asia.  I do not sense the ROK sense of "conquest" that Mr. Hoare describes but I will defer to his expertise.  Defeat of the north is always discussed in terms of the north resuming hostilities and we should expect nothing less from the military in war.  If the regime collapses it will be a different story and I have confidence in the professionalism of the ROK military to conduct operations in a way that will work towards reunification.  We should also recall that both northland South have put forward confederal plans for reunification and some of the concepts contained in them will be useful during the process.  And for the Korean people (all of them) reunification is the right thing to do. Lastly we should not forget that both current Presidents of the ROK and US have stated that (peaceful) reunification is the end state to be sought by the alliance.
V/R
Dave

Reunification of Koreas may not be inevitable

South Korean focus on ‘conquest’ in post-unification peninsula deters hopes
reunification-peninsula
BY JAMES HOARE , NOVEMBER 12, 2013
     
   
The prospect of a Korean reunification in the short rather than the long term has recently been raised again, this time in a paper prepared by Bruce Bennett for the RAND Corporation. As usual, and despite dressing arguments up in scholarly fashion, what we are given is a hope that perhaps one day what people see as the problem of North Korea will just go away. Alas! I suspect it is all more complicated than that.
On the surface, the idea of a reunified Korea becoming a reality seems to be almost a no-brainer. Here is a peninsula that was more or less one political entity from the 10th to the 20th century. It would be hard to think of another state that had a continuous political existence from 930 to 1905 A.D., with one ruling dynasty from 1382 until the end. Indeed, one can argue that even under Japanese colonialism, Korea continued to exist, since the Japanese never implemented fully the professed aim of uniting Japan and Korea as one.
In addition, apart from the tradition of political continuity, Koreans share the same language and cultural traditions relating to food, social behaviour, housing and a whole range of other things. The geography of the peninsula encourages unity. It is surrounded by sea on three sides, with rivers on the fourth side marking a clear physical and linguistic division between Korea and north east China. The existence of a huge state to the north and west, whose rulers regularly indicated an ambition to add the peninsula to their territories, fostered a fierce since of separateness, reinforced from the later 18th century as new big powers emerged in the region. There are, of course, a few caveats. Koreans, like most people before the 19th century, knew they were different from other groups but they did not necessarily think of themselves as Korean. People thought in terms of their clan or their location. Over the length of the Korean Peninsula, language varied. They might all have spoken Korean, but they did not necessarily speak the same Korean. But overall, Korea seems destined for unification.
Or does it? Developments since 1945 have so altered the picture that I now find it hard to see reunification happening anytime soon. Division in 1945 and even more war between 1950 and 1953 have reinforced some of the elements mentioned above. Now there are not one but two fiercely independent states on the peninsula, each drawing on Korea’s historic past but each unwilling to concede that past to the other. In the war, each of the states nearly achieved reunification on its terms but with outside intervention, which both deplored as far as the other side was concerned, each survived.
Thereafter, while still formally committed to reunification, both Koreas did precisely nothing to bring it about. Instead, each concentrated on developing its own take on Korean independence. War-engendered bitterness reinforced this and, although the Korean War generation is now largely off the scene both sides of the Demilitarized Zone, succeeding generations North and South have had the memory of the war and hostility drilled into them by education and indoctrination. Whatever the arguments about whether the Korean War was a civil war or an international war, there can be no doubt that it had a large element of an intra-nation conflict. And as the experience of the United States, Spain and Ireland and many other countries bears testimony, the divisions of such conflicts take a long time to heal.
That is one of the many differences between the Korean and the German experience. While there may have been hostility between the two German states, they did not fight each other. And despite the Berlin wall, they never became as separated from each other as the two Koreas have been. Another major difference is that, as its end showed, the East German state, whatever its trappings of independence, in the event was dependent on the Soviet Union and the Red Army. When the Soviet Union refused to step in, the East German political structure collapsed. North Korea is not in the same position. The last foreign troops left in 1958 and since then it has relied on its own forces.
The German approach seemed to avoid the sense of conquest. That is not to say that things happened that made it sometimes appear that the West was conquering the East, but that does not seem to have been the intention. I fear that the two Koreas are likely to approach the issue in a very different manner. For years, I have been having conversations with South Koreans who talk of defeating the North, of revenging past wrongs, of getting back what is rightfully theirs. I heard recently of a conference where the theme was “transitional justice” after the takeover of the North. In other words, revenge.
(Continued at the link below)

Sunday, July 21, 2013

‘Consensus, policy consistency integral for reunification’

Some interesting perspectives, the most interesting being the description of the Korean War:

Park: The Korean War was neither a civil war nor international war. Particularly, it was not a civil war as the root cause of the war was the great powers having divided and occupied the peninsula. On top of that, Stalin of the Soviet Union and Mao Zedong of China were directly involved in the decision to initiate the war, and major war-related policies were determined in Washington, Tokyo, Moscow and Beijing. This holds true with the ending of the war. A civil war is a fight over who would represent one society in a country like the English, American, Russian, Spanish and Chinese Civil Wars. 
The Korean War was a “war of world citizens.” Koreans were world citizens who experienced a world conflict, namely the Cold War, at its forefront. The Korean War was a microcosm where that global conflict exploded. It was virtually a world war. Yet, it did not escalate into World War III.

I think Professor Park would agree that the ROK needs to make preparations for unification and not simply develop scenarios and make plans.
“First and foremost, Seoul should establish a consistent internal perspective and policy toward North Korea and reunification. Just crafting reunification scenarios is not a top priority,” Park, 49, said.
An interesting description and criticism of President Park's Northeast Asia Initiative or process:
Park: The process approaches problems in a reverse order. The level of regional cooperation on non-political sectors in Northeast Asia have come close to that of Europe and the North American region. Regional exchanges in trade, economy, investment, tourism, people and culture are nearing some type of regional integration. I can hardly imagine how the Park government can foster regional trust and multilateral cooperation by adding more items to that list, such as climate change, terrorism and nuclear safety. It may have little impact. It is because the region has failed to build any trust in the areas of politics, history and security despite the high level of regional cooperation. 
The centerpiece is the trust and cooperation in areas of politics, the military, security and history. I hope President Park will demonstrate her capability to enhance and lead innovative multilateral cooperation in these areas in a way that encompasses North Korea, Japan, China, the U.S. and Russia.
Although Professor Park criticizes those as alarmist who believe that the north would seek to sideline the ROK through direct talks with the US he does seem to agree with those of us who believe that strength of the ROK/US Alliance provides the ROK and US flexibility to deal with the north.

Park: The trust and the alliance between South Korea and the U.S. have remained unwavering when it comes to North Korean nuclear issues. Thus, the more talks Seoul or Washington have with the North, the better things will become. What the North seeks through talks is by no means crucial. As long as the allies agree on what to offer and take from the North through dialogue with the North, it does not matter whichever side holds talks with the North. 
V/R
Dave

‘Consensus, policy consistency integral for reunification’
2013-07-21 16:44
This is the fifth in a series of articles to mark the 60th anniversary of the armistice agreement that halted the 1950-53 Korean War. -- Ed.

Park Myung-lim (Park Hae-mook/The Korea Herald)

Park Myung-lim, a leading scholar on the Korean War, called on South Korea to build internal consensus as the first step toward reunification, pointing to persistent ideological divisions over North Korea and its policy inconsistency.

During an interview with The Korea Herald, the Yonsei University professor stressed the South should be able to take responsibility of peacefully managing all peninsular issues, noting the North was already a “failed system.”

“First and foremost, Seoul should establish a consistent internal perspective and policy toward North Korea and reunification. Just crafting reunification scenarios is not a top priority,” Park, 49, said.

With his decades of extensive research including interviews and fact-finding trips, Park has sought to uncover the truths behind the 1950-53 war, the first major armed conflict of the Cold War.

Through painstaking research, Park also hopes to console the spirits of those who died in the conflict and contribute to finding the right direction toward peace and reunification.

“I have continued to delve into the war as I believe someone should help relieve the pain from the endless tragedies of the deceased, wounded, widows and orphans. Even for a moment, I have never forgotten the deep sadness in their eyes,” he said.

Following are excerpts of the interview with Park. The full transcript is available on The Korea Herald website.

Korea Herald: This year marks the 60th anniversary of the armistice agreement. How do you assess the agreement so far? Some say it is already in tatters as Pyongyang has long sought to make it null and void.

Park Myung-lim: Due to its tentativeness, the armistice regime born out of the agreement was a two-sided system that guaranteed not only stability but also instability. Despite this, we should not forget the armistice regime was the minimum mechanism to ward off war aggression and maintain security on the peninsula.

During some time before and after the cease-fire, it was actually the South that showed reluctance toward the agreement. With South Korean President Syngman Rhee (hoping for a unified Korea), the South did not join the signing of the armistice. In addition, the South, on the surface, pushed for a strong policy to advance into the North (to unify the peninsula.) Moreover, it was the South and the U.S. that argued in the 1950s that the Neutral Nations Supervisory Commission should be pulled out.

Recently, Pyongyang sought aggressively to nullify the armistice. It is clear that it aims to forge a peace treaty, which would replace the armistice regime. But the armistice can’t be modified, supplemented or invalidated unilaterally by one side according to the mutual agreement. Thus, until both sides agree on its replacement, the armistice has to be seen as an apparatus to secure peace and security. North Korea’s provocations can also be called “provocations” because the armistice has been in force. 

KH: There have been conflicting descriptions of the cause of the Korean War. Some say it was a civil war while others say it was an international war. What is your analysis?

Park: The Korean War was neither a civil war nor international war. Particularly, it was not a civil war as the root cause of the war was the great powers having divided and occupied the peninsula. On top of that, Stalin of the Soviet Union and Mao Zedong of China were directly involved in the decision to initiate the war, and major war-related policies were determined in Washington, Tokyo, Moscow and Beijing. This holds true with the ending of the war. A civil war is a fight over who would represent one society in a country like the English, American, Russian, Spanish and Chinese Civil Wars.

The Korean War was a “war of world citizens.” Koreans were world citizens who experienced a world conflict, namely the Cold War, at its forefront. The Korean War was a microcosm where that global conflict exploded. It was virtually a world war. Yet, it did not escalate into World War III.

KH: What do you think about the implications or impact of the Korean War on the dynamics of East Asia?

Park: Its biggest impact is on the establishment of a Cold War structure in East Asia -- namely, the creation of the San Francisco system and a failure to introduce the Yalta system. The Yalta system is multilateral competition between capitalist and socialist collective security systems like the contest between the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Warsaw Treaty Organization. 

But due to the Korean War, East Asian countries such as Japan, China, South Korea, North Korea, the Philippines and Taiwan forged either bilateral alliances or confrontational relations with the U.S. Thus, East Asia failed to build a multilateral, collective security mechanism. We call this “Northeast Asian exceptionalism” or a “hub-and-spokes system.” The very reason why the Cold War structure still lives on in East Asia is that the hub-and-spokes system -- the fundamental characteristic of the San Francisco system -- was built after the war.

Secondly, in the wake of the war, the nascent state of China emerged on the world stage and its division with Taiwan became solid. Less than a year after China founded its communist nation, it fought against the world’s greatest power, the U.S., and the Korean War ended in a tie. The war also played some role in preventing China from waging a war to unify with Taiwan, leading to a permanent separation between China and Taiwan.

Thirdly, we can point to the “Japan problem.” After the war, Japan returned to the international community through the San Francisco Treaty without thorough compensation or an apology for the inhumane crimes it perpetrated during World War II. Without Japan exhaustively taking moral, political and legal responsibility for them, we now have a host of issues such as territorial disputes, the wartime sexual enslavement of Asian women and historical distortions. The Japan problem is not just a nationalistic issue between Korea and Japan, and between China and Japan, but an issue of universal human rights, peace and war crimes, that questions the conscience of humanity. 

KH: The two Koreas have been caught in a relentless security dilemma with suspicions about each other’s intentions. How do you think we can overcome it? And the North vows to hold nuclear arms until the U.S. ends its hostility toward Pyongyang. What is the security situation from the North’s standpoint?

Park: Pyongyang’s argument that it cannot help pursuing nuclear armament because of U.S. hostility is baseless. The U.S. never invaded the North when it did not have any nuclear weapons. The North’s pursuit of nuclear arms is directly connected to the threat of its regime collapse that stems from a combination of the deepening isolation since the collapse of the Soviet Union; subsequent disintegration of the Cold War system; the widening inter-Korean gap in national power; the risks of being unified under South Korean control; and its debilitated economy.

So, what security means from its perspective is the comprehensive resolution of these threats to its regime survival. The security dilemma can’t be resolved when Pyongyang only seeks to remove external threat elements such as the South, the U.S. and Japan. The North should objectively face up to it.

A shortcut to resolving the security dilemma is recognizing each other and building mutual trust. I have long said the South can adopt the method of the West and East Germany -- namely, normalizing bilateral ties and international relations at the same time. First of all, it is crucial to recognize each other in realistic terms -- until the day of reunification -- by signing an inter-Korean basic treaty. By doing so, the two Koreas are to recognize each other as a state, albeit tentatively, and clearly declare their peaceful coexistence. And then, the U.S. and the North should also normalize their ties as quickly as possible. By formally recognizing the North, the South and the U.S. can eliminate an element of its security threat and the North can abandon its nuclear arms. 

KH: Replacing the armistice regime with a peace regime is also a crucial task facing the two Koreas. What kind of efforts should be made to that end?

Park: It should be a three-fold process. First, as I said, the process involves the two Koreas signing a basic treaty to recognize each other and the normalization of U.S.-North Korea relations. That is to restore normal state-to-state relationships among them.

Secondly, the armistice should be turned into a peace treaty. In this process, the South -- which is the principal party for peninsular peace, but did not join the signing of the armistice -- must partake. Without its participation, any peace regime on the peninsula can’t be effectively upheld. Thus, a peace treaty can be formulated with the participation of the two Koreas, the U.S. and China in a two-plus-two format.

Thirdly, a collective security institution or multilateral security mechanism should be created in East Asia. Should a collective security system be built, the peninsular security issue would be elevated as an issue of multilateral security in the region, and therefore, a war can scarcely be waged. 
Denuclearization and arms reduction that these three measures entail would be a starting point for a peace system on the peninsula. 

KH: How do you assess President Park Geun-hye’s dialogue-based peninsular trust-building process? Do you have any advice for her?

Park: I hope the Park government consults policy cases of Germany, Taiwan and the U.S. As witnessed in these cases, a moderate, liberal policy toward a hostile state was far more effective for a conservative government. As it is a conservative administration, conservatives would not object to it nor would liberals shun it. The hostile state would also follow the policy after all as there is no other choice to take.

Indeed, the South needs to delve into the polices that the Christian Democratic Party in West Germany, the Nationalist Party of Taiwan and the Republican Party in the U.S. adopted. In particular, the South can study the implications of the Nixon government’s normalization of relations with China; Chancellor Helmut Kohl’s policy toward East Germany; and the Nationalist Party’s policy of coexistence and cooperation with China.

Among past Seoul governments, the South can learn from what the Roh Tae-woo administration did. Without undermining the Korea-U.S. alliance at all, it normalized ties with China and the Soviet Union -- two countries that sponsored the North and which Seoul fought against during the Korean War. 

KH: Park is also pushing for the “Seoul process” -- a trust-building mechanism for peace in Northeast Asia. The process, as she puts it, seeks to build trust in non-political areas first and then moves onto the areas of “high-politics” such as security in what experts call a functional approach. 

Park: The process approaches problems in a reverse order. The level of regional cooperation on non-political sectors in Northeast Asia have come close to that of Europe and the North American region. Regional exchanges in trade, economy, investment, tourism, people and culture are nearing some type of regional integration. I can hardly imagine how the Park government can foster regional trust and multilateral cooperation by adding more items to that list, such as climate change, terrorism and nuclear safety. It may have little impact. It is because the region has failed to build any trust in the areas of politics, history and security despite the high level of regional cooperation.

The centerpiece is the trust and cooperation in areas of politics, the military, security and history. I hope President Park will demonstrate her capability to enhance and lead innovative multilateral cooperation in these areas in a way that encompasses North Korea, Japan, China, the U.S. and Russia.

KH: There is a lot of talk about the possible collapse of the North Korean regime, but there is little discussion of reunification. What preparations do we need for that?

Park: North Korea is already a failed system in terms of its value and substance. Thus, whether reunification is near or not, regardless of when the North would cease to be, the South should be equipped with responsibilities and capabilities to undertake and manage overall peninsular issues including North Korea issues peacefully. 

The first and foremost thing to do for reunification is establishing a “consistent” internal perspective and policy toward North Korea and reunification. Crafting reunification scenarios is not the top priority. With the hitherto internal conflicts over North Korea and policy fluctuations between liberal and conservative governments, the South can never manage peninsular issues in a consistent manner. So, the first step is internal compromise, integration and unity. 

Without this, the South would suffer from policy swings and self-denial, and be relentlessly embroiled in internal conflicts without a sustainable, resilient reunification policy. This would also send a confusing signal to North Korean people and the international community. 

KH: Whether conservative or liberal, Seoul governments’ policies toward the North has made little headway, particularly on the issue of denuclearization, in the last two decades. What is the fundamental problem?

Park: The first thing to do is to combine a national-level goal with an administration-level policy. With regard to North Korea policy, South Korea as a state should have a consistent, clear policy goal. Within this goal, a liberal or conservative administration can have autonomy and flexibility. But while South Koreans do not make efforts to reach consensus over the former, they often tend to value the latter more. This is a very dangerous, ideologically-skewed approach.


The second is to recognize and honor previous governments’ inter-Korean and international agreements. Albeit insufficient, the two sides can implement them as they can modify and supplement them later in practical terms. In this way, the South can gain policy consistency and international trust. The signal to its citizens and North Koreans would also remain consistent. 
(Continued at the link below)

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