Assessment of POTUS-Kim Jong-un meeting at the DMZ/Panmunjom June 30, 2019

My thoughts on the meeting:

Unconventional, experimental, top down diplomacy.  Diplomacy and foreign relations via twitter and social media. Will it pay off?  I hope so but I think it will only work if we understand the true nature of the Kim family regime and we do not take our eye off the ball - north Korea's political warfare strategy and long con.

I do not mean this to be disrespectful but I do think it is accurate to describe the "political philosophy" of this administration as one of "reality TV."  I think it is simply a fact that the President's information and influence activities strategy is based on the principles of success for reality TV.

I do hope the President will take seriously the name "Freedom's Frontier" and will work to protect freedom and liberty everywhere throughout the world against our enemies who seek authoritarian government expansion and domination, to include China, Russia, Iran, and north Korea as well as the non-state violent extremist actors.

Of course the visit to JSA/Panmunjom was long planned.  I am sure it was in the works from the time it was agreed that he would travel to South Korea after the G20.  But it will be interesting to some day learn the history - was this meeting really based on a tweet and the President's last minute idea to tweet and invite Kim and did Kim accept it on almost the spur of the moment?  If so it is also historic from the point of view that the north Korean bureaucracy/party apparatus worked as fast as it did.

It was a pretty amazing event.  But we should remember that we conferred a high  degree of legitimacy on Kim and this will be exploited by Kim's Propaganda and Agitation Department.  Some commentators have also mentioned that by this action we just accepted north Korea as a nuclear state (I hope we are not doing that but that is the view of some pundits)  I have to say that Kim looked the most at ease and relaxed both outside at the MDL and along conference row when they were talking to the press as well as at the sit down in the Peace House.  He appeared to be in his element and seemed to be relishing the exposure of the press conference even more than POTUS.  I wonder what was agreed to at the private session.  Hopefully real working level negotiations will take place.  It will be interesting to parse the statements from KCNA over the next few days to determine how Kim views this.  I am sure it will be interpreted as a huge win and that Kim is in full control of the nuclear negotiations and is in full control of his political warfare strategy and long con that he is executing agains the ROK and the U.S.

We need to think about these five questions:

1. What do we want to achieve in Korea?

2. What is the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US Alliance interests on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia?

3. Who does Kim fear more: The US or the Korean people in the north? (Note it is the Korean people armed with information knowledge of life in South Korea)

4. Do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as Kim family regime?

5. In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un has abandoned the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Has KJU given up its divide and conquer strategy - divide the alliance and conquer the ROK?

The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" (para 60 of the Armistice) and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK)

A tough and comprehensive strategic approach, or “Plan B,” is required while the U.S. still pursues working level negotiations to give Kim the opportunity to make the right strategic decision to denuclearize.  It must rest on a foundation of sustained pressure and military strength.  Should Kim not make the right strategic decision the U.S. and ROK/U.S. Alliance will have the strategy and forces in place to dissuade the regime from continued development of its capabilities and sustain the deterrent posture to prevent war. Finally, this “Plan B” provides a long-term approach to support reaching what may be the only solution to the Korean security problem: a unified peninsula or a United Republic of Korea.

In short my assumptions are these:  

Kim will not give up nuclear weapons unless he perceives the greater threat is from maintaining them –  a threat that must come from within the regime.

The only way we are going to see an end to the nuclear program and threats, as well as the crimes against humanity being committed against the Korean people living in the north by the mafia-like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime that rules the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State, is through achievement of unification and the establishment of a United Republic of Korea (UROK) that is secure and stable, non-nuclear, economically vibrant, and unified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people.

To that end we need a concept that is based on "Deter, Contain, Manage, and Press: " deter north Korean aggression and attack on the South, contain the north's illicit activities around the world to include cyber and proliferation activities, manage the conditions and sustain alliances in the region, and continue maximum pressure 2.0 to influence internal regime dynamics that result in the internal threats that will cause Kim Jong-un to make the right strategic choices.

This concept should employ five major lines of effort: Diplomatic Engagement, Military Strength to deter an attack and support strategic reassurance and strategic resolve, Sanctions Enforcement, Cyber Defense and Offense, and Information and Influence activities to influence the regime elite, 2d tier leadership, and general population.

In the end to counter Kim's political warfare strategy and long con we have to outplay him with our long game.