Planning for the Future: Conditions of Combined ROK-U.S. Military Intervention in Potential DPRK Contingencies

For anyone who is interested in thinking about the unthinkable – north Korean regime collapse, I recommend adding this to the reading list.  Professor Bechtol is one of the few academics who looks hard at this issue and he is also unique because he brings an expert practitioner's background to the problem.

V/R

Dave

The Korean Journal of Defense Analysis

Vol. 24, No. 4, December 2012, 489–502

Planning for the Future: 

Conditions of Combined ROK-U.S. Military 

Intervention in Potential DPRK Contingencies

Bruce E. Bechtol Jr.*

Angelo State University, Texas, U.S.A.

http://www.kida.re.kr/data/kjda/06_Bruce%20E_Bechtol.pdf

This paper addresses the key concerns of a joint/combined ROK-U.S. military

operation in the case of a necessary contingency in North Korea. As such, it focuses

on the necessary military issues, some of the likely scenarios where these issues

would arise (there are simply too many to address them all in this paper), and the

likely political factors in South Korea, the United States, and the international

community that would be at play during this time period. China is likely to be the

“elephant in the room,” though diplomacy with Beijing will be key and the Chinese

are unlikely to agree to anything unless it is very clear to the world that North

Korea is obviously in the throes of collapse, civil war, or complete anarchy. Any

contingency operation into North Korea will be a very large, very expensive

operation. South Korea simply does not have all of the resources or the military

capabilities to carry out such an operation on its own—but it should lead any effort

to intervene in North Korea because ultimately this is a Korea issue. A variety of

factors, particularly the instability of the government, are likely to ultimately

bring about a catastrophe in the DPRK. When this happens, a unified Korea,

under a transparent democracy with its capital in Seoul, is the only viable option

for the Korean people.

Keywords: ROK-U.S. alliance, North Korean military, reunification, contingency

planning, North Korean collapse

(The entire 14 page paper can be downloaded from KIDA at this link)

http://www.kida.re.kr/data/kjda/06_Bruce%20E_Bechtol.pdf

What you need to know about the Pentagon's new spy service

A commentary with objections to the new DIA initiative reported this weekend by the Washington Post.  This is certainly an interesting excerpt describing the "interagency:"

Others suspect that the DCS is a backdoor way to circumvent something called the "interagency," which is the hyper-political, informal presidentially-directed policy process for deciding what to spend money on and how to do it. This is, I think, exactly one reason why the DCS appeals to a lot of people who study the idea: The National Security Council has been (historically) very bad at strategy, which means that military and intelligence priorities are often determined in increments driven by the political calendar. An internal structural reorientation allows the Defense Department some "give" to develop better long-term strategies … strategies that civilians simply don't have the political mindspace for. Note how quickly the undersecretaries for policy or directors of intelligence agencies turn over. Continuity is lacking.

Somehow I do not think that this initiative is going to be an "internal structural reorientation" that will will DOD 'to develop better long term strategies."

V/R

Dave

What you need to know about the Pentagon's new

 spy service

DECEMBER 2, 2012, AT 7:24 PM

http://theweek.com/article/index/237208/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-pentagons-new-spy-service

What should a war-weary public think of a whole new spy service for the Pentagon? The brain-child of two wunderkinds of intelligence, the Defense Clandestine Service will ultimately field 1,600 personnel across the world. This sounds like a lot of new spooks. But the reality is a bit different. There is a primer of sorts of what this new spy service will do, and what it won't do.

(1) There won't really ne 1,600 new spies. There are already about 600 or so Defense Attaches attached to embassies and consulates. They collect intelligence openly. They will now work more closely with their covert counterparts and are included in the figure that Congress has been given for the size of the DCS. Of the remaining 1,000 personnel, a bunch will come from existing Department of Defense intelligence collection agencies. DCS will incorporate some of the human intelligence gatherers of the Army Compartmented Element, which works primarily with the Special Operations Command, and the Defense Program Support Activity, which creates secret task forces to deal with the toughest and most highly sensitive defense-related intelligence problems. It will swallow whole the Defense Intelligence Agency's existing Defense Counterintelligence and Human Service. This brings the total of "new" spies to several hundred. They will be trained and fielded over the course over five years. 

(Continued at the link below)

http://theweek.com/article/index/237208/what-you-need-to-know-about-the-pentagons-new-spy-service

North Korean prisoner escaped after 23 brutal years (60 minutes)

From last night's 60 Minutes.  I know people tire of hearing about the tragic and criminal conditions being perpetrated by the Kim Family Regime but we should keep this in mind when we are trying to understand north Korea and formulate policy and strategy to solve the "Korea Question" (the division of the Peninsula).  Note the emphasis on generational punishment – the rule of three.  People should read Blaine Hardin's book.  I know this excerpt is hard for us to fathom but it is illustrative (we should read Ted Gurr's book on Why Men Rebel as he also explains in some case why men cannot):

Anderson Cooper: Growing up, did you ever think about escaping? 

Shin Dong-hyuk: That never crossed my mind. 

Anderson Cooper: It never crossed your mind? 

Shin Dong-hyuk: No. Never. What I thought was that the society outside the camp would be similar to that inside the camp. 

Anderson Cooper: You thought everybody lived in a prison camp like this? 

Shin Dong-hyuk: Yes. 

Shin told us that this is the house where he was born. His mother and father were prisoners whose marriage, if you could call it that, was arranged by the guards as a reward for hard work.

V/R

Dave

December 2, 2012 7:45 PM

North Korean prisoner escaped after 23 brutal years

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57556662/north-korean-prison-endured-for-23-brutal-years/

Born in a prison camp, Shin Dong-hyuk describes how three generations of a family are incarcerated if one family member is considered disloyal. Anderson Cooper reports.

Web Extras

• North Korean prisoner escaped after 23 brutal years
• Becoming human: Shin's new life
• Asking permission to eat a rat
• More »

The following is a script from "Three Generations of Punishment" which aired on Dec. 2, 2012. Anderson Cooper is the correspondent. Andy Court, producer.

60 Minutes Overtime

Becoming human: Shin's new life »

Tonight we're going to tell you about a place so brutal and horrific it's hard to believe it exists. It is, by all accounts, a modern-day concentration camp, a secret prison hidden in the mountains, 50 miles from North Korea's capital, Pyongyang. It's called Camp 14, and according to human right rights groups, it's part of the largest network of political prisons in the world today. Some 150,000 people are believed to be doing hard labor on the brink of starvation in these hidden gulags. But it's not just those who have been accused of political crimes; it's their entire families -- grandparents, parents, and children. A practice called "three generations of punishment."

Very little was known about Camp 14 until a young man showed up in South Korea with an extraordinary tale to tell. His name is Shin Dong-hyuk and he said he had not only escaped from Camp 14, but he was born there. He's believed to be the only person born and raised in the camps who's ever escaped and lived to tell about it.

(Continued at the link below - you can view the video and read the entire transcript)

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-18560_162-57556662/north-korean-prison-endured-for-23-brutal-years/

Korea: a new great power?

A view from Russia.  Excerpts:

Summing up, despite a remarkable growth in its economic, political and military standing over the past several decades, South Korea falls short of a great power. This becomes clear if one compares the Republic of Korea with some second-tier great power, such as France. South Korea loses out to France on all key measures. Population-wise, there are 49 million South Koreans versus 66 million French. South Korea’s GDP of 1.6 trillion USD is overshadowed by France’s 2.2 trillion. In military-strategic terms, the crucial difference between Seoul and Paris is France’s ability to independently provide for its security, which is underpinned by the French nuclear arsenal.…
The reunification of the North and the South, both possessing formidable armed forces, will certainly increase Korea’s military-strategic weight. The most intriguing question is whether the new Korea keeps the DPRK’s nuclear legacy. 

Russia and Korea have never experienced bitter conflicts and disputes. The only thing Russia should be worried after the unification is the risk of losing up to 200,000 ethnic Koreans who now live in the country. Most of them are hard-working and entrepreneurial people. Their massive migration to their historical homeland would be a great loss to Russia. 

For a long time, Korea was a pawn, often a victim, caught in great powers’ rivalry. Now it has a chance to acquire a great power rank for itself. Whether this chance is realized depends partly on the other major powers, but largely on the Koreans themselves.

V/R

Dave

Korea: a new great power?

20 November 2012

Artyom Lukin, Associate Professor, Deputy Director for Research, School of Regional and International Studies, Far Eastern Federal University

http://ifl.wl.dvfu.ru/8998

Recently, I attended a banquet at the conclusion of a Russian-South Korean symposium. As usual, there were toasts, and I dared to propose my own: “Let Korea soon become a great power as Russia is”. My colleague, a Korea expert, whispered to me: “You have just offended the Koreans, because they already see themselves as a great power”. The Koreans’ unhappy faces left no doubt that my colleague was right.

This moment of embarrassment led me to ponder whether the Republic of Korea can actually claim a great power status. In order to answer this question, one needs to identify the essential qualities of a great power.

First, a state has to be able to defend its basic security and sovereignty without relying on other powers and/or international institutions. Sufficient military capability, perhaps including nuclear deterrent, is the key. By some estimates, South Korea has the best army in Asia¹. However, in the realm of national defense, Seoul still critically depends on the US. This is manifested in the US-Korea alliance, in which Seoul is obviously a junior partner.

Second, an aspiring great power must have a lot of hard power (basically, material and demographic resources) and soft power (an attractive image) in order to be able to project global influence. South Korea boasts the 13th biggest economy, with the rate of growth overshadowing that of the Western world. Korea’s soft power is yet to become a global force, although it is already quite noticeable internationally, as, for example, represented by the K-Pop phenomenon.

(Continued at the link below)

http://ifl.wl.dvfu.ru/8998

China concerned over North Korea missile

Excerpt:

John Delury, a professor at Yonsei University, said a successful satellite launch this month could provide a platform for better relations with the next South Korean administration by getting the provocative act "out of the way" before February. 

"It's a box they have to tick," said Mr Delury. 

But South Korea’s next president could face tense discussions with Washington if Seoul attempts a radical overhaul of policy towards North Korea.

In addition, I would add that the north is also helping Iran to develop long range missiles:

Washington believes North Korea’s satellite programme is aimed at developing long-range rockets capable of carrying nuclear warheads to the US mainland.

V/R

Dave

Last updated: December 2, 2012 11:53 am

China concerned over North Korea missile

By Simon Mundy in Seoul

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/52c1563a-3c1d-11e2-b45f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2Du1JeDjZ

China has expressed “deep concern” at North Korea’s plan to launch a ballistic missile in December, but called on all sides to “keep a cool head”.

North Korea on Saturday said it would attempt to put a satellite into orbit between December 10 and 22. The announcement further dashed hopes that Kim Jong-eun might improve relations with the US and South Korea.

KCNA, the North Korean state media agency, stressed the “peaceful” nature of the launch, saying Pyongyang would “fully comply with relevant international regulations”.

The announcement drew immediate condemnation from the US, South Korea and Japan. North Korea is banned from using ballistic missile technology under a UN Security Council resolution imposed after it conducted a nuclear test in 2006.

Washington believes North Korea’s satellite programme is aimed at developing long-range rockets capable of carrying nuclear warheads to the US mainland.

The latest move will add to disillusionment in the Obama administration, which hoped to eliminate the North Korean threat through diplomacy.

In February, the two countries signed a deal in which North Korea pledged to suspend its nuclear and missile programmes in exchange for food aid.

(Continued at the link below)

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/52c1563a-3c1d-11e2-b45f-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2Du1JeDjZ

Iran stations defense staff at North Korean site

Perhaps it is for commercial reasons that the north is going to make another test rocket launch.  I am sure Iran really wants this capability.  We should be assessing the collaboration between north Korea and Iran to determine potential capabilities.  But I think if they do conduct the test then the relations with Iran (probably because of the cash) will be deemed more important than the outcome of the ROK Presidential election.

V/R

Dave

Iran stations defense staff at North Korean site

By REUTERS

12/02/2012 05:42

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=294244

Japanese news agency: Iran stationed staff in N. Korea in an effort to strengthen cooperation in missile, nuclear development.

TOKYO - Iran has stationed defense staff in North Korea since late October apparently to strengthen cooperation in missile and nuclear development, Japan's Kyodo News Agency reported on Sunday, citing a Western diplomatic source.

The report came as North Korea said on Saturday it would carry out its second rocket launch of 2012 between December 10 and December 22, near the first anniversary of the death of young leader Kim Jong-un's father.

The Iranian mission, Kyodo said, is made up of four experts from Iran's Ministry of Defense and firms close to it. Citing the source, it said they were staying at a military facility 85 km (53 miles) from the North Korean border with China.

(Continued at the link below)

http://www.jpost.com/IranianThreat/News/Article.aspx?id=294244

Along the Trail of Korea’s Mountain Spirits

Perhaps not directly national security related on the surface but for those who are interested in Korean culture and geography this might be of interest.  Unfortunately for many of us our time in the Taebek mountains has been part of military training but I recall often coming across temples in very remote areas and the beauty of the area around Jirisan. But we should recall that Jirisan (Jiri Mountain) was the area where north Korean guerrillas operated for as many as 5 years after the Korean War, I think finally being eliminated around 1958.  However, north Korea attempted to develop resistance in this area in the mid to late 1960's and as the Vietnam War was at its height in 1967-68 the ROK Army with some US support from US Special Forces Detachment Korea and 1st Special Forces in Okinawa was conducting counterinsurgency operations in this area.  See Daniel Bolger's 1991 work  Scenes from an Unfinished War: Low intensity conflict in Korea 1966-1969. (Available commercially as well as through the Command and General Staff College at Leavenworth)

V/R
Dave

Along the Trail of Korea’s Mountain Spirits

http://travel.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/travel/along-the-trail-of-koreas-mountain-spirits.html?ref=global-home&_r=0&pagewanted=all

Joe Ray for The New York Times

Overlooking a roof at Haeinsa, a Buddhist temple.

By ELISABETH EAVES

Published: November 30, 2012

THE titanium spork was a Christmas gift from my brother Gregory, a choice that seemed random at the time. I had no use for ultra-lightweight dual-use cutlery. But nine months later, almost 7,000 miles from my home in New York City and nearly catatonic with exhaustion, I was thankful for its lack of heft. Gregory; my husband, Joe; and I had been hiking for 12 hours while hoisting a 30-pound backpack over steep and slippery rock in a thick mist. After nightfall, headlamps fading, we spotted dots of light below us in the dark, and heard the eerie whoosh of a wind generator. We stumbled down to the Satgat-jae shelter, a basic cabin for hikers perched at over 4,200 feet in South Korea’s Deogyusan National Park. I unpacked my spork.

It was Gregory, now living in South Korea and flush with the zeal of the newly expatriated, who had suggested we hike a portion of the Baekdu-Daegan trail. The Baekdu-Daegan is a mountain system running the entire length of the two Koreas, some 870 miles. On maps, it appears as the topographical backbone of the Korean Peninsula, but I soon realized it was also a psycho-spiritual one. The notion first occurred to me when Gregory told us that his city-dwelling Korean girlfriend said he would understand her better if he hiked the Baekdu-Daegan. And when Joe and I checked out of our ultramodern hotel in central Seoul, the receptionist clapped when I told her what we were about to do.

South Korea may be among the most wired and densely populated countries in the world, but its first religion many centuries ago — before the arrival of Christianity, Confucianism and Buddhism — was based on the worship of mountain spirits. The Korean version of feng shui, known as pungsu-jiri, holds that the nation’s energy flows south along the Baekdu-Daegan ridge and outward along its branches. By the time of our trip, I had developed a theory that the mountains are to Koreans as the Wild West is to Americans: even if a New Yorker, say, has never set foot on a ranch, he likes to think he’s got a little bit of cowboy in his soul. It’s part of the collective unconscious.

Since the ’80s, as both freedom and wealth have spread in South Korea, so has the popularity of mountaineering. As it has, the South Korean portion of the Baekdu-Daegan has become hikable along nearly all of its 457-mile ridge, with trails built and maintained by the Korea Forest Service, part of the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry. Weekend warriors tackle it in chunks, and a hardy few attempt the entire length as an epic two-month trek.

In the spring, Gregory had mailed me the only English-language guidebook to the trail. The spork had been a subtle lure, but I took the guidebook as an all-out invitation and began making plans for a September trip. My brother had lived in South Korea for much of his 20s, but, always too busy or broke from my own globe-trotting, I had never visited. Now he was moving back there at the age of 37, in love with Korea, the Korean language and a Korean woman. I wanted to better understand his decision, which seemed to be either a bold gamble on personal happiness or a crazy one. And I wanted to know the place that might be his permanent home.

(Continued at the link below)

http://travel.nytimes.com/2012/12/02/travel/along-the-trail-of-koreas-mountain-spirits.html?ref=global-home&_r=0&pagewanted=all