Preparations for a Possible Third Nuclear Test Continue; Complications from Water Buildup?

To follow-up on the AP report on the north Korea (the non-compliant, unsafe, nuclear experimenter) and its possible preparations for a third nuclear test, here is the report and photos from the 38 North web site from Johns Hopkins and the US Korea Institute at SAIS. (please go to the site at the links below to view the photos)

V/R

Dave

Preparations for a Possible Third Nuclear Test Continue; Complications from Water Buildup?

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By 38 North

http://38north.org/2012/12/punggyeri122812/?utm_source=Copy+of+38+North+Bulletin%2C+122712&utm_campaign=38+North&utm_medium=email

A 38 North exclusive with analysis by Jack Liu, Nick Hansen and Jeffrey Lewis.

Summary

With North Korea’s long-range rocket test earlier this month and an expected U.S. effort to seek a tough response at the United Nations, concerns have grown that Pyongyang might conduct its third nuclear test. Satellite photos as recent as December 13 show that Pyongyang is determined to maintain a state of readiness at the Punggye-ri nuclear test site where a third test is expected even in the dead of winter. That effort includes a previously unidentified structure that may be intended to protect data gathering equipment from inclement weather. Despite flooding last summer and fall that destroyed key elements of the infrastructure at the site, the North moved quickly to restore their ability to operate the complex. Subsequent images from December show continued activity.

While the North may be able to trigger a detonation in as little as two weeks once a political decision is made to move forward, water first spotted streaming out of the suspected test tunnel in a November 19 satellite photo and still present almost a month later, may present a problem for Pyongyang.[1] In order to maintain a high level of readiness, the North Koreans will have to prevent water buildup in the tunnel that could possibly damage the nuclear test device and associated sensors designed to gather data on a detonation. Whether this potential problem is under control or has now been solved remains unclear.

New Analysis of Past Activity at Test Site: Structures Identified?

Operations at the southern tunnel site at the Punggye-ri Nuclear Test Facility, where experts suspect Pyongyang will conduct its next detonation, began in 2009 or 2010. Over time, some 8,000 cubic meters of rubble were excavated with spoil piles covering 4,000 square meters. By spring 2012, the site appeared almost ready for a test. A satellite image from April 18 shows a train of mining carts on top of the spoil pile and random unidentified structures or objects on or near the piles (see figure 1). Such patterns may be indicative of preparations to emplace the nuclear device and diagnostic equipment in the test chamber as well as to deliver stemming material and spoil to seal the shaft.[2]

(Continued at the link below)

http://38north.org/2012/12/punggyeri122812/?utm_source=Copy+of+38+North+Bulletin%2C+122712&utm_campaign=38+North&utm_medium=email

AP Exclusive: Photos show NKorea nuclear readines

Note the comments on the streaming water problems.  This is another indication that the north is a "non-compliant, unsafe, nuclear experimenter."  (thanks to Dr. Bruce Bennett for coining that phrase).

V/R

Dave

AP Exclusive: Photos show NKorea nuclear readiness

FOSTER KLUG and MATTHEW PENNINGTON

Published: Yesterday

http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268777/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=MBeZ3s6G

SEOUL, South Korea (AP) - North Korea has repaired flood damage at its nuclear test facility and could conduct a quick atomic explosion if it chose, though water streaming out of a test tunnel may cause problems, analysis of recent satellite photos indicates.

Washington and others are bracing for the possibility that if punished for a successful long-range rocket launch on Dec. 12 that the U.N. considers a cover for a banned ballistic missile test, North Korea's next step might be its third nuclear test.

Rocket and nuclear tests unnerve Washington and its allies because each new success puts North Korean scientists another step closer to perfecting a nuclear warhead small enough to put on a missile that could hit the mainland United States.

Another nuclear test, which North Korea's Foreign Ministry hinted at on the day of the rocket launch, would fit a pattern. Pyongyang conducted its first and second atomic explosions, in 2006 and 2009, weeks after receiving U.N. Security Council condemnation and sanctions for similar long-range rocket launches.

North Korea is thought to have enough plutonium for a handful of crude atomic bombs, and unveiled a uranium enrichment facility in 2010, but it must continue to conduct tests to master the miniaturization technology crucial for a true nuclear weapons program.

"With an additional nuclear test, North Korea could advance their ability to eventually deploy a nuclear weapon on a long-range missile," said Daryl Kimball, executive director of the nongovernment Arms Control Association.

(Continued at the link below)

http://m.apnews.com/ap/db_268777/contentdetail.htm?contentguid=MBeZ3s6G

North Korea is a self proclaimed nuclear state, says Admiral Locklear

With all due respect I would like to slightly quibble with ADM Locklear's statement.  While he is certainly correct in stating that the regime in the north has so proclaimed itself, I do not think we should ever even tacitly or de facto call the north that. I recommend we refer to it has Dr. Bruce Bennett of RAND has I think more correctly described it: "a non-compliant, unsafe nuclear experimenter."  And of course we can add that it is also a proliferator of its unsafe nuclear (and missile) technology.  Of course this is purely semantics but I think we should take every opportunity to remind the world what the regime is all about.

V/R

Dave

North Korea is a self proclaimed nuclear state, says Admiral Locklear

• PENTAGONDECEMBER 8, 2012BY: ROBERT TILFORDSubscribe

On December 6, 2012, Admiral Samuel J. Locklear, gave a press briefing at thePentagon where he responded to questions regarding North Korea's planned launch of a satellite into space.

Ms. Barb Starr CNN: “Can you follow-up on some of that? What's your assessment? They say they've solved their - whatever problems they had with their April failed launch. What have you seen? What's your assessment? How could they have solved the problems? Who might have helped them? Do you see Iran in there possibly helping them? Who else? And do you think he's doing this in response to hardliners in his own government? Why would he be doing this?”

(Continued at the link below)

http://www.examiner.com/article/north-korea-is-a-self-proclaimed-nuclear-state-says-admiral-locklear