(Yonhap Interview) In new book, Bechtol says Kim Jong-il still matters in N. Korea

If you have an interest in north Korea, read Dr. Bechtol's book.

V/R

Dave

2013/05/28 08:25 KST

(Yonhap Interview) In new book, Bechtol says Kim Jong-il still matters in N. Korea

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/n_interview/2013/05/28/13/4801000000AEN20130528000100315F.HTML

By Lee Chi-dong

WASHINGTON, May 27 (Yonhap) -- Bruce Bechtol, a prominent North Korea expert in the U.S., believes it's important to revisit the final years of the Kim Jong-il regime to fathom the strategy of the current leadership of Kim Jong-un.

   "I think that everything that's going on right now in North Korea was set up by Kim Jong-il before he died," in December 2011, he told Yonhap News Agency in a phone interview.

   Bechtol, an associate professor of political science at Angelo State University in Texas, said that's why he authored a 223-page book, titled, "The Last Days of Kim Jong-il: The North Korean threats in a changing era." It's his third book on North Korea.

   "My assessment is that Kim Jong-il made a number of policy moves during the last years of his rule that will have a profound effect on how North Korea evolves in coming years," Bechtol said in the book.

   A defiant foreign and military policy, a track record of proliferation and the development of a nuclear weaponization program point to the conclusion that Kim's plan was for North Korea to continue operating as an aggressive, authoritarian state, he added.

   Writing such a book focusing on the policy of the late North Korean leader is rather unusual, as the world is paying attention to almost every word and act of the new young leader Kim Jong-un.

   Under the junior Kim's leadership, the North has shown a mixed signal by talking about economic reforms, churning out military threats and hinting at an intent to talk with Washington.

   The North fired two long-range rockets in 2012 and carried out a nuclear test earlier this year.

   Most recently, however, North Korean envoy Choe Ryong-hae told Chinese leaders that Pyongyang was willing to return to the dialogue table, including the long-stalled six-way nuclear talks with South Korea, the U.S., China, Russia and Japan.

   Bechtol, formerly a senior intelligence analyst at the Defense Intelligence Agency, doubts Pyongyang will avert its course.

   "Because the primary motivation behind North Korea's nuclear proliferation is money - not ideology - and because the regime's isolation is inclined to make incoming funds an ongoing issue, this highly dangerous proliferation policy is probably going to continue under the new regime," he said.

(Continued at the link below)

http://english.yonhapnews.co.kr/n_interview/2013/05/28/13/4801000000AEN20130528000100315

A look at the strengths and weaknesses of North Korea’s military

For a good source of north Korea military capabilities in a very readable format I would recommend Dr. Bruce Bechtol's books  Red Rogue and Defiant Failed State and his forthcoming The Last Days of Kim Jong Il.  There are few (if any) books that provide the details of the north Korean military; both their capabilities and how they operate and will operate.  

The other authority is Joe Bermudez.  You can read his analysis on Janes and at his KPA journal. http://www.kpajournal.com/

A look at the strengths and weaknesses of North Korea’s military

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/a-look-at-the-strengths-and-weaknesses-of-north-koreas-military/2013/04/25/36eeb0e4-ae21-11e2-b240-9ef3a72c67cc_story.html

By Associated Press, Published: April 25

SEOUL, South Korea — North Korea’s military, founded 81 years ago Thursday, is older than the country itself. It began as an anti-Japanese militia and is now the heart of the nation’s “military first” policy.

Late leader Kim Jong Il elevated the military’s role during his 17-year rule; South Korea estimates he boosted troop levels to 1.2 million soldiers. The military’s new supreme commander, Kim Jong Un, gave the Korean People’s Army a sharpened focus this year by instructing troops to build a “nuclear arms force.” Yet the army is believed to be running on outdated equipment and short supplies.

The secretive army divulges few details about its operations, but here is an assessment from foreign experts of its strengths and weaknesses:

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ARTILLERY

North Korea provided a chilling reminder of what its artillery is capable of when it showered a front-line South Korean island with shells, killing four people in November 2010 and underscoring the threat that its artillery troops pose at the disputed sea border.

South Korea says North Korea has more than 13,000 artillery guns, and its long-range batteries are capable of hitting the capital Seoul, a city of more than 10 million people just 30 miles (50 kilometers) from the border.

“North Korea’s greatest advantage is that its artillery could initially deliver a heavy bombardment on the South Korean capital,” Mark Fitzpatrick, a former U.S. State Department official now with the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said in an email.

South Korea’s defense minister estimates that 70 percent of North Korean artillery batteries along the border could be “neutralized” in five days if war broke out. But Sohn Yong-woo, a professor at the Graduate School of National Defense Strategy of Hannam University in South Korea, said that would be too late to prevent millions of civilian casualties and avert a disastrous blow to Asia’s fourth-largest economy.

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SPECIAL FORCES

Experts believe guerrilla warfare would be the North’s most viable strategy in the event of conflict, since its conventional army suffers from aging equipment and a shortage of firepower.

Seoul estimates North Korea has about 200,000 special forces, and Pyongyang has used them before.

In 1968, 31 North Korean commandos stormed Seoul’s presidential Blue House in a failed assassination attempt against then-President Park Chung-hee. That same year, more than 120 North Korean commandos sneaked into eastern South Korea and killed some 20 South Korean civilians, soldiers and police officers.

In 1996, 26 North Korean agents infiltrated South Korea’s northeastern mountains after their submarine broke down, sparking a manhunt that left all but two of them dead, along with 13 South Korean soldiers and civilians.

“The special forces’ goal is to discourage both the United States and South Korea from fighting with North Korea at the earliest stage of war by putting major infrastructure, such as nuclear plants, and their citizens at risk,” said Kim Yeon-su, a professor at Korea National Defense University in Seoul. “The North’s special forces are a key component of its asymmetric capabilities along with nuclear bombs, missiles and artillery. Their job is to create as many battlefronts as possible to put their enemies in disarray.
”

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ON LAND, BY SEA AND IN THE AIR

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http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/a-look-at-the-strengths-and-weaknesses-of-north-koreas-military/2013/04/25/36eeb0e4-ae21-11e2-b240-9ef3a72c67cc_story.html

North Korea Orders Artillery to Be Combat Ready, Targeting U.S. Bases

I think it is worth recalling Dr. Bruce Bechtol's assessment of the north's standard provocation pattern that I have previously shared:

1. Intentionally initiated when they are most likely to attract most attention on the regional and international stage
2. They initially appear to be relatively small, easily contained, and quickly “resolved” incidents
3. They involve ever changing tactics and techniques
4. North Korea ensures plausible deniability, and denies responsibility for the incident

I would slightly add to the fourth point:  The north will also act when it can pin blame on the ROK or US as in the Y-P Do artillery firing when it blamed the ROK's provocative actions (its artillery exercise on the island firing toward the South) and then claimed it shelled the island in "self defense."

The other condition the north usually needs is surprise. In some ways we might be somewhat reassured by the rhetoric we are hearing because they are (usually) less likely to conduct an attack when they cannot achieve surprise or if they are attacking against a ready force and I would submit the ROK military is at a very high state of readiness.  

However, I do very much worry about Kim Jong-un's inexperience and potential hubris based on the idea that his western education and experience gives him superior insights into how the US in particular might react.  Combine this will poor military advice from Generals who will be basing their assessments not only on what they think Kim Jong-un wants to hear but on their assessment of ROK/US Alliance actions over the past 6 decades (and I think that both the ROK and US are not going to react in accordance with historical patterns) and we do have the potential for miscalculation by the Kim and his regime.

V/R

Dave

March 26, 2013

North Korea Orders Artillery to Be Combat Ready, Targeting U.S. Bases

By REUTERS

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2013/03/26/world/asia/26reuters-korea-north-combat.html?ref=world&pagewanted=print

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korea said on Tuesday its strategic rocket and long-range artillery units have been ordered to be combat ready, targeting U.S. military bases on Guam, Hawaii and mainland America after U.S. bombers flew sorties threatening the North.

The order, issued in a statement from the North's military "supreme command", marks the latest fiery rhetoric from Pyongyang since the start of joint military drills by U.S. and South Korean forces early this month.

South Korea's defense ministry said it saw no sign of imminent military action by North Korea.

"From this moment, the Supreme Command of the Korean People's Army will be putting into combat duty posture No. 1 all field artillery units, including long-range artillery units and strategic rocket units, that will target all enemy objects in U.S. invasionary bases on its mainland, Hawaii and Guam," the North's KCNA news agency said.

The North previously threatened nuclear attack on the United States and South Korea, although it is not believed to have the capability to hit the continental United States with an atomic weapon. But the U.S. military's bases in the Pacific area are in range of its medium-range missiles.

South Korea's defense ministry said it had detected no signs of unusual activity by the North's military but will monitor the situation. The South and the U.S. military are conducting drills until the end of April, which they have stressed are strictly defensive in nature.

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http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/2013/03/26/world/asia/26reuters-korea-north-combat.html?ref=world&pagewanted=print