North Korea's Kim supervises "drone attack" drill

Although counterintuitive perhaps one of the things these exercises do is to not only force the north to expend resources when they mobilize in response, but also they provide us with some potentially good intelligence (this is why Team Spirit was so important in the past – the regime expended resources and gave us good intelligence reads regarding their mobilization and logistics as well as their operational plans).  Kim may be "showing off" in response to the exercise and the high tech capabilities of the ROK/US Alliance.  Of course these reports are of "simulated" actions and I am sure the jury is still out on whether they can actually execute these type of operations. I do hope they are continuing to develop the capability to shoot down Tomahawk cruise missiles now that the US Navy is retiring them.

Conclusion:

Most military experts say that the North will likely not launch an all-out war against South Korea and its U.S. ally due to its outdated weaponry. 

Pyongyang is viewed as more likely to stage an attack along a disputed sea border between the two countries as it did in 2010 when it shelled a South Korean island, killing four people. 

Such a move would provide a major test for new South Korean President Park Geun-hye who took office pledging closer ties with the North if it abandoned its nuclear push.

As I have mentioned when and if the north does conduct its next provocation (kinetic vice cyber) the ROK has to "win" the tactical engagement - in this case my definition of win is to both give the appearance the the ROK military was ready and to respond rapidly and decisively at the point of provocation.  It must execute a defensive operation to strike local targets in self defense in accordance with the established ROE.  The longer it takes for a response the more likely the ROK military will be perceived as having "lost" the engagement.  And if they wait, consult and then conduct a deliberate attack against deep or "strategic" targets then we are likely to see an escalation if not a major response because from the north's perspective a deep attack will appear to be a direct threat to the survival of the Kim Family Regime.  I am not confident that Kim Jong-un has any off ramps on the escalatory ladder if deep targets are struck and then we can see things get real ugly real quick.  However, a decisive strike on local targets will be perceived as a demonstration of ROK strength and there is less likely a chance for escalation.  Though again, just as we have seen in the cyber attacks today, the north has laid the ground work for future propaganda.  In the case of a ROK response I do believe we will see the propaganda effort focusing on the death of women and children from the ROK response.  I think his recent front line visits that included photo ops with women and children are preparation for future propaganda operations.

UPDATE: 

I received this very important and insightful analysis from Bob Collins in response to the article and my comments below.  This is important for anyone studying north Korea and how the regime operates.

We should not be surprised that NK is just now getting around to flash a message that they successfully shot down a two-decade (?) US capability.  One of the problems with NK defense industry research is up-to-date research information for their applied sciences programs.  Scientific research in NK is overseen on the party side by Science Education Department that recruits, educates and trains all NK scientists.  That same research is implemented on the government side by the National Academy of Sciences in general and the 2nd National Science Academy in the military field.  (anything numbered the "2nd" in NK government/military/party structure is normally related to the military.)  The 2nd Academy focuses on the applied sciences side, however, which means making things work.  NK's S&T weakness is on the pure research side.  This is the side that is not funded or staffed nearly as well as the applied sciences side..  All the best scientists and the vast majority of the funding goes to the applied sciences side, thus focus on nuke weapon rather than expansion/improvement of their overall nuclear energy program. So as NK recruits, educates and trains new scientists, they do so with 2nd and 3rd string instructors with poorly funded research centers that are poorly equipped for modern research.  They are sacrificing tomorrow for today.

V/R

Dave

North Korea's Kim supervises "drone attack" drill

8:41am EDT

By David Chance

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/20/us-korea-north-drones-idUSBRE92J0JI20130320

SEOUL (Reuters) - North Korean leader Kim Jong-un supervised a drone attack on a simulated South Korean target on Wednesday, Pyongyang's KCNA news agency reported, and the armed forces shot down a target mimicking a cruise missile.

North Korea has stepped up its military exercises in response to what it regards as "hostile" joint drills by South Korea and the United States after Pyongyang was sanctioned by the U.N. Security Council for a nuclear test in February.

It is not known if North Korea possesses drones, although a report on South Korea's Yonhap news agency last year said that it had obtained 1970s-era U.S. target drones from Syria to develop into attack drones.

"The (drone) planes were assigned the flight route and time with the targets in South Korea in mind, Kim Jong-un said, adding with great satisfaction that they were proved to be able to mount (a) super-precision attack on any enemy targets," KCNA reported.

It is extremely rare for KCNA to specify the day on which Kim attended a drill. It also said that a rocket defense unit had successfully shot down a target that mimicked an "enemy" Tomahawk cruise missile.

North Korea has said it has abrogated an armistice that ended the 1950-53 Korean War and threatened a nuclear attack on the United States.

Although North Korea currently lacks the technology to carry out such an attack, the U.S. said it would deploy anti-missile batteries in Alaska to counter any threat.

The KCNA report said that Kim, 30, the third of his line to rule North Korea, would give orders to destroy military installations in any war zone and also U.S. bases in the Pacific if the North was attacked.

North Korea's missiles have the capacity to hit bases in Japan and on the island of Guam.

Earlier in the day, KCNA denounced U.S. moves that it said were aimed at staging a "pre-emptive nuclear strike" on North Korea, citing the deployment of a U.S. B-52 bomber over the Korean peninsula as well as what it said were nuclear-armed submarines.

The U.S. and South Korea say their drills are defensive.

Tensions have mounted on the Korean peninsula since North Korea staged its first successful long-range rocket launch in December. It followed this up with its third nuclear weapons test in February.

Pyongyang is barred from developing missile and nuclear-related technology under U.N. sanctions imposed after previous nuclear tests.

(Continued at the link below)

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/03/20/us-korea-north-drones-idUSBRE92J0JI20130320

President Park to make first overseas visit to the US in May

Seems we may have got off on the wrong foot according to this article below.  But I am very happy that she will travel to the US first.  I think that we should keep in mind given everything that is going on on the Peninsula and the region, the ROK/US Alliance is going to continue to be a key foreign policy and national security pillar for both nations.  Here are a few recommendations for the first meeting.

We should keep in mind that in the future President Park will travel to Beijing which is a good thing to do given the north Korean situation.  Good relations between Seoul and Beijing will send a strong signal to the north.  However, with her visit to the US we need to conduct some diplomatic and political activities that will ensure everyone understands that the Alliance is rock solid (and we need to subtly outdo the Chinese.)

The most important task as I have mentioned is reaffirming and hopefully expanding the 2009 Joint Vision Statement.  There needs to be a signed document and a joint press conference to unveil it at the end of the visit.  They need to reinforce the strategic end state of Korean unification.

They also need to agree that the north is trying to split the alliance which is always one of the objectives of the north's provocations (the other being to obtain political and economic concessions).  They need to work on a plan (or actually agree to a plan hammered out by Korean and US action officers) to have menu of responses so that each time the north conducts a provocation the Alliance can do something to show that the north's actions are making the alliance stronger.  There can include such things as renaming Key Resolve/Foal Eagle to Team Spirit; increase port calls of US Navy ships (perhaps use Korean ports for appropriate maintenance of US naval ships so that they spend a longer amount of time than the standard port call; returning US forces to patrolling the DMZ integrated into the ROK C2 structure for operations on the DMZ, returning US forces to Korea (e.g., the helicopter battalion and others) to turn around the long term slow reduction of US forces on the Peninsula that has been occurring since 1978, and of course my favorite, the announcement that the ROK/US CFC will not be dissolved but will be fully supported and resourced to achieve victory and then lastly an announcement that a ROK General will take command of the ROK/US CFC.  I am sure the action officers can establish a comprehensive menu for responses.  But all of this must be built on the ROK/US vision and a long term strategy.  I would like the two Presidents to agree to have the military reexamine the dissolution of CFC and the movement of US forces South (in particular 2ID) and decide that by 2014 a decision will be made to reverse the dissolution(keeping in mind that it could be strategically wise to announce that decision sooner depending on the type of pressure that we want to exert on the north and the messages we want to send.

Finally in terms of diplomatic and political activities:  There should be a state dinner of course or a visit to Camp David (which might not be a bad thing for the ROK and US senior leaders to hammer out the strategy necessary – but there may not be enough time for that).  I would also recommend an address to a joint session of Congress.  Interestingly I understand that the last address to a joint session was in 2011 and it was made by President Lee and there has not been one since.  That would send quite a message about the strength and importance of the Alliance if Korea had the only back to back addresses to Congress by two of its Presidents.

I certainly hope this visit is being well planned now and that we do not have any more bumps in the road like the one described below.  I think it is absolutely imperative that in addition to reaffirming the Joint Vision that this visit has all the right political symbolism to ensure that the countries in the region and in particularly the north get the message about the importance and strength of the Alliance.  This will set the foundation for all future actions and strategy development and execution.

V/R
Dave

President Park to make first overseas visit to the US in May http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/577831.html

Posted on : Mar.13,2013 11:15 KST

American official may have breached protocol by announcing the date of Park’s visit prematurely 

By Seok Jin-hwan, Blue House correspondent and Park Hyun, Washington correspondent

Park Geun-hye plans to follow the precedent set by previous presidents by visiting the US on her first overseas visit, with a summit meeting scheduled with president Barack Obama in early May.

While the decision was expected, given the US’s diplomatic importance, a number of issues remain to be addressed between the two leaders.

First among them is the matter of strengthening the alliance in response to the recent crisis on the Korean Peninsula with North Korea’s third nuclear test, the United Nations sanctions imposed in response, and Pyongyang’s declaration that it would nullify the 1953 armistice agreement. Experts are also predicting the two leaders will discuss Park’s ideas for a “trust-building process” in inter-Korean affairs, an area of continued emphasis during her election campaign, and for getting the six-party talks on the nuclear issue off the ground again. A Blue House official said the discussions would likely address ideas for cooperation on the 60th anniversary of the alliance this year, as well as a wide range of other issues, including North Korea’s nuclear program.

Another major item on the agenda is likely to be amending the two countries’ atomic energy agreement, which currently restricts the reprocessing of spent fuel rods. The current agreement will expire in March 2014. Park already made a request along these lines during a meeting with US House Committee on Foreign Affairs chairman Ed Royce after her election, asking for cooperation from him and other members of Congress so that the agreement could be amended in a more “future-oriented” way.

(Continued at the link below)

http://english.hani.co.kr/arti/english_edition/e_northkorea/577831.html