North Korea May Cancel Nuclear Test

Is it deja vu all over again?  And we thought that they would delay the missile launch and instead launched on Dec 12.  Fool me once, fool me twice.

Then again, perhaps the regime's twisted sense of humor is along the lines of "let's just see what kind of reaction we can stir up in the international community."  Or maybe let's deliberately stir something up and try to somehow embarrass the US and its allies.

Then again, maybe this is the nuclear form of "creeping normalcy."  In just the same way they have moved 70% of its military force to the frontline areas over the past few decades and it has just become "accepted" and all of the intelligence indicators and warnings have at one time or another been activated and yet nothing has yet become of them, perhaps the regime is playing this game to desensitize us with rumors of a nuclear test so that we will get tired of crying wolf and then one day when we are ignoring them they will go ahead and test.

But who knows?  All I can say for sure is that we cannot expect the grime to function as a normal state in the international community and we had better keep that in mind in all our dealings with it.

V/R

Dave

North Korea May Cancel Nuclear Test

North Korea's earlier nuclear tests were in 2006 and 2009

By VASUDEVAN SRIDHARAN: Subscribe to Vasudevan's RSS feed

February 10, 2013 7:03 AM GMT

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/433418/20130210/north-korea-nuclear-test-pyongyang-kim-jong.htm

Video grab from KCNA shows Unha-3 rocket launch at North Korea's West Sea Satellite Launch Site (Reuters)

North Korea has hinted it may halt preparations for a third nuclear test as the country's mouthpiece says the outside world has misinterpreted Pyongyang's recent announcements.

"The US and hostile forces jumped to conclusions that the republic is planning the third nuclear test, citing their hypothesis and argument," said the propaganda weekly, Tongil Sinbo.

North Korean leader Kim Jong-un had vowed to take "substantial and high-profile important state measures" over the ongoing speculation about a nuclear test in the country. The remarks were widely seen as a direct reference to an imminent nuclear test, although Kim did not say so explicitly.

The latest report in the weekly, however, warns that the US and other countries do not know what Pyongyang means by important measures - whether it is the much-feared nuclear test or something even worse.

The mouthpiece says that the measures "are aimed at safeguarding its national interest and not at threatening anyone", adding: "It remains to be seen what the important state measures are, though it is clear that any US reactions to them may prove to be only irrevocable losses."

Only a week ago, Pyongyang was forced to remove a promotional video that reportedly showed a city attacked by North Korean missiles. The city was indirectly referred to as New York.

(Continued at the link below)

http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/articles/433418/20130210/north-korea-nuclear-test-pyongyang-kim-jong.htm

U.S. official: North Korea likely deceived U.S., allies before launching rocket

Yes, we did get deceived. North Korea depends on denial and deception as a fundamental method of operations.  But we should did get deceived this time.

We should realize that the north understands our surveillance methods and that if we can see something it is because they want us to see it.  They wanted us to see that they were dismantling the missile. It is also likely that they had a good idea of how we would react to their statements and what our ISR could observe and they provided the picture and the information that would confirm our analysis bias (e.g., the north continues to have technical problems so it was very plausible that a delay was needed) 

But why the deception?  To reduce our ability to observe and gain data from the launch?  To "protect" the launch? – did fear the US or Japan would try to shoot it down? (note I did not include the ROK as a threat to the north's missile).  Did they simply just want to embarrass us?

But again we must understand that the north will use denial and deception in everything it does and we must look for it and be prepared to deal with it.

V/R
Dave

December 27th, 2012

05:28 PM ET

U.S. official: North Korea likely deceived U.S., allies before launching rocket

By Barbara Starr

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/27/u-s-official-north-korea-likely-deceived-u-s-allies-before-launching-rocket/?hpt=hp_t3

North Korea likely engaged in a deliberate campaign of deception before a December 12 long-range missile launch, catching the United States and its Asian allies "off guard," according to a U.S. official with direct knowledge of analysis of the incident conducted by U.S. military and intelligence agencies.

The official told CNN that American and Japanese military ships and missile defenses were fully operational and protecting land, sea and airspace on December 12, but that the launch was a surprise when it actually happened.

"We had our dukes up, operationally, but we were caught off guard," the official said.

"The clues point to a concerted effort to deceive us," the official said. The analysis was ordered in the wake of the launch to determine what exactly happened and how much the U.S. intelligence knew at the time.

The official said one conclusion was that while missile defenses can fully protect against a North Korean attack, the North Koreans have shown they can counter U.S. measures to gather intelligence about what they are up to.

"Look, they know when our satellites are passing overhead," the official said. It's believed the North Koreans essentially manipulated the launch so U.S. intelligence satellites simply would not be overhead and able to see what was happening.

The most likely scenario, the official said, was that North Korea wasn't telling the truth when it announced several days before the launch that there were technical problems with the missile.

According to the official, the intelligence analysis found that:

(Continued at the link below)

http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2012/12/27/u-s-official-north-korea-likely-deceived-u-s-allies-before-launching-rocket/?hpt=hp_t3