Budget Uncertainty Could Derail Expansion of US Special Ops Forces

Excerpt;

In a May interview with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, retired Army Lt. Gen. Frank Kearney, SOCOM’s former deputy commander, suggested that SOCOM’s expansion is vulnerable to current budget realities, saying “the force is going to shrink — the general purpose force — therefore, there’s going to be less people to feed the special operations force.”

Kearney also said he worried about the effect on SOCOM if it continues to grow while the services — which provide forces to staff SOCOM — shrink.

“If we go to 72,000,” he asked, “is that sustainable given the service populations?”

Within that 72,000 number how much of the growth is in the big three of SOF: e.g., Special Forces (Green Berets), SEALs, and Rangers? (MARSOC is discussed below.)  I think that there has been no growth in the "operational force" above the numbers of the 2010 QDR (and of course no growth in Special Forces since the 2006 QDR called for growth of 5 additional battalions, the last of which should have become fully mission capable in August of 2013 which illustrates how long it takes to grow the operational force).  I would argue that most of the growth in the 72,000 number is in "enablers" - forces that support SOF but that do not go through any of the SOF training "pipelines" to produce the operational force.  I think we should always be careful when we throw out that 72,000 number.

But LTG Kearney's point is well taken. We are not going to be able to grow the operational force as the services draw down (nor do I think we should grow it).  But those who are "SOF lovers" who think that SOF is a panacea or silver bullet do not, I think, understand the true nature of US SOF in more of bigger is not always better.

V/R
Dave

Budget Uncertainty Could Derail Expansion of US Special Ops Forces

Nov. 4, 2013 - 07:12PM   |  

By PAUL McLEARY and HOPE HODGE SECK   |  

Marine critical skills operations troops train in this undated file photo. Marine Corps Forces Special Operations Command will continue to build a force of 844 operators; it now has more than 700. (Marine Corps)

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US Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel, center, meets with Maj. Gen. Mark Clark, head of US Marine Corps Forces Special Operations Command, during a July visit to MARSOC's Stone Bay complex in North Carolina. / US Marine Corps

Ambitious plans to expand the US military’s elite special operations command are in jeopardy as the Pentagon considers whether to freeze force levels amid widespread budget cuts, Defense News has learned.

As the perceived need has grown for such surgical missions around the world, US Special Operations Command was thought to be immune to the current downsizing sweeping the military. Indeed, plans call for SOCOM to expand from 66,000 personnel today to 72,000 by 2017.

However, the US Marine Corps has announced it won’t be allowed to add more than 800 special operations jobs, which officials there had sought to round out its ranks, according to Capt. Adrian Ambe, a spokesman for Marine Corps Forces Special Operations Command (MARSOC), headquartered at Camp Lejeune, N.C.

Ambe told Marine Corps Times, a sister publication of Defense News, in October that Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel’s office issued guidance last summer freezing all special operations forces at their current manning levels.

Officials at SOCOM said they have not heard of any such directive from Hagel’s office, and policy staffers at the Pentagon said no such orders have been issued.

However, one Pentagon source added that as part of the Future Year Defense Plan for 2015-2019, slowing the planned growth of special operations forces is among the range of options that has been discussed.

The source stressed, however, that no final decision has been made.

A defense official who declined to speak for attribution said: “There are a range of options being considered across the Department of Defense as part of our future years defense planning and the Quadrennial Defense Review (QDR). As these are both ongoing activities, it would be premature to comment on the details.”

A QDR is undertaken every four years to inform the Pentagon’s decisions about military strategy, and serve as a roadmap for its capabilities and force structure.

Yet faced with the long-term budget cuts known as sequestration, which are eating into all of the services’ personnel accounts, Pentagon and SOCOM officials have stayed largely silent on the impact that those shrinking budgets could have on special operations.

For MARSOC, the freeze will cap end strength at its present authorized size: 2,742 personnel. A Marine spokesman at the Pentagon, Capt. Tyler Balzer, explained that MARSOC will continue to grow until it reaches that number.

Ambe said he did not have a figure for MARSOC’s current size.

Previously, plans called for MARSOC to top out just above 3,600. A year ago, MARSOC rolled out a detailed plan to bulk up its combat service support structure, the enablers who back up critical skills operators by gathering intelligence, for instance, or serving as joint tactical air controllers.

(Continued at the link below)

http://www.defensenews.com/article/20131104/DEFREG02/311040014/Budget-Uncertainty-Could-Derail-Expansion-US-Special-Ops-Forces?odyssey=mod|newswell|text|World%20News|p

The Future of U.S. Special Operations Forces by Linda Robinson

The full 51 page report can be downloaded at the link:  

http://www.cfr.org/wars-and-warfare/future-us-special-operations-forces/p30323

V/R
Dave

The Future of U.S. Special Operations Forces

Author: Linda Robinson, Senior International Policy Analyst, RAND Corporation

http://www.cfr.org/wars-and-warfare/future-us-special-operations-forces/p30323

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Publisher

Council on Foreign Relations Press

Release Date

April 2013

Price

$10.00

50 pages
ISBN 978-0-87609-550-8
Council Special Report No. 66

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Overview

U.S. special operations forces are doing more things in more places than ever before. They are now active in some seventy countries and, since 2001, have seen their combined budget nearly quintuple—a trend that seems likely to continue. As the United States seeks ways to tackle a range of security threats worldwide, shore up the resilience of its friends and allies against terrorist and criminal networks, and minimize need for large-scale military interventions, the importance of special operations forces will grow.

Yet, writes Linda Robinson in this Council Special Report, the strategic vision for special operations forces has not kept pace with the growing demands for their skills. Most people—and, indeed, many policymakers—associate the special operations forces with secret nighttime raids like the one that targeted Osama bin Laden: tactical operations against a particular individual or group. The abilities of special operations forces, however, extend much further, into military training, information operations, civilian affairs, and more. As the United States shifts its focus from war fighting to building and supporting its partners, Robinson argues, it will become critical to better define these strategic capabilities and ensure that special operations forces have the staffing and funding to succeed. Robinson further calls on the Pentagon to remove bureaucratic and operational obstacles to cooperation among the special operations forces of each service, and between special and conventional forces. She also recommends that all special operations forces commands work to develop a pipeline of talented, motivated officers with expertise in these issues, and that the role of civilian leadership in budget and operational oversight be reinforced.

The Future of U.S. Special Operations Forces is a timely report on the future of what may become the military's most important troops. It offers a broad set of recommendations covering institutional, operational, and intellectual reforms that could improve the versatility and effectiveness of the special operations forces. As the Pentagon seeks new ways to exert American power in an era of lower budgets and higher aversion to wars on the scale of Iraq and Afghanistan, this report argues that expanding the role of special operations forces can—and should—be high on the agenda.

More on... United States, Wars and Warfare

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More About This Publication

• The Author

Linda Robinson is a senior international policy analyst at RAND. In 2011–2012 she was an adjunct senior fellow for U.S. national security and foreign policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, and in 2013 she was a public policy scholar at the Wilson Center. A best-selling author and analyst, Robinson has reported on conflicts, political transitions, and other foreign policy issues around the world, including special operations in Afghanistan, Iraq, Colombia, and elsewhere. Her books include Tell Me How This Ends: General David Petraeus and the Search for a Way Out of Iraq; Masters of Chaos: The Secret History of the Special Forces; and Intervention or Neglect: Central America and Panama Beyond the 1980s. She was previously senior writer for national security and terrorism and Latin America bureau chief at U.S. News & World Report and senior editor at Foreign Affairs magazine. Robinson coauthored a study on special operations command and control for the U.S. government in 2008–2009. She is currently writing a book on special operations in Afghanistan. Robinson has also been a Nieman fellow at Harvard University, senior consulting fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), and author-in-residence at the Merrill Center for Strategic Studies at the John Hopkins University's School of Advanced International Studies. She has received the Gerald R. Ford Prize for Distinguished Reporting on National Defense and other awards.