Thoughts on Strategy for the Korean Peninsula

My remarks last week at the Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS) conference on The Korean Peninsula Issues and United States National Security.

http://www.icasinc.org/2017/2017f/2017fdsm.html

Thoughts on Strategy for the Korean Peninsula

David S.Maxwell
Georgetown University

Let me just begin with a few framing remarks:

We have successfully deterred a resumption of hostilities by the north for 64 years and I believe we have to continue to deter for as long as it takes until we resolve the security problem on the peninsula. We should keep in mind the wise words of Sir Lawrence Freedman who said "Deterrence works, until it doesn't." 

A Strategic Planning and Preparation Paralysis arises from a fear of what comes next - how to navigate through the War/Collapse Paradox.

In 1998, Dr. Kurt Campbell when he was the DASD for East Asia Pacific affairs made the astute remark:
"There are only two ways to approach planning for the collapse of North Korea: to be ill-prepared or to be really ill-prepared." 

Sun Tzu wrote "never assume the enemy will not attack, make yourself invincible." - The Collapse Corollary is: Never assume the KFR will not collapse - prepare now even though we cannot predict if and when. We should realize that collapse will be catastrophic.

Lastly, we suffer from the tyranny of proximity - the range of north Korean artillery threat to the Greater Seoul Metropolitan Area. This restricts our policy options and strategy.

Here is the Problem: There is no US and ROK comprehensive strategy to solve the "Korea Question" and address the full spectrum of threats caused by the existence of the Kim Family Regime (KFR).

We must answer these Key Questions: What do we want to achieve in Korea? What is the acceptable durable political arrangement on the Korean peninsula and in Northeast Asia that will serve and protect ROK and US interests?

For any strategy you must make assumptions when you do not have all the facts but must continue planning. You continue to use the assumptions until they are proven as facts. And if the assumptions prove false or erroneous then you must adapt your plans and strategy based on the new facts. Since Korea is such a hard case I feel it is necessary to list fifteen assumptions that drive my strategic thinking.


Assumptions:

(Continued at the link below)

http://www.icasinc.org/2017/2017f/2017fdsm.html

CSPAN Korean Peninsula Security Concerns, Part 1 and Part 2

If you go to the 50:18 minute mark on Part 1 (link below) you can hear a PRC representative from the Chinese Embassy in DC give the Chinese perspective on its activities in the South China Sea, the ADIZ and territorial disputes.

Also in Part 2 you can hear from Syd Seiler, the White House NSC Director for Korea provide an interesting historical overview of nK policy and nK actions.

There was a 3d part that was not filmed because OSD did not want its representative speaking on the record.

FEBRUARY 14, 2014

Korean Peninsula Security Concerns, Part 1

HTTP://WWW.C-SPAN.ORG/VIDEO/?317809-1/KOREAN-PENINSULA-SECURITY

Robert Zarate discussed U.S. national security concerns on and around the Korean Peninsula. He talked about relations between China, both Koreas, and Japan, including the presence of the U.S. Fleet in the East China Sea and North Korean objections to joint U.S.-Korea “war games,” and the impact of such cooperation on relations with China. After his presentation he was joined in discussion by ICAS fellows Joseph Bosco, David Maxwell, and Larry Niksch and responded to questions from members of the audience. 

The Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS) symposium on “The Korean Peninsula Issues and United States National Security” was held in the Rayburn House Office Building. close 

FEBRUARY 14, 2014

Korean Peninsula Security Concerns, Part 2

http://www.c-span.org/video/?317809-2/korean-peninsula-security

White House National Security Council Director for Korea Sydney Seiler spoke about security concerns on the Korean Peninsula, including North Korean nuclear ambitions and the impact of cooperation between China and the U.S. to pressure North Korea on relations with China. After his presentation he was joined in discussion by ICAS fellows Joseph Bosco, David Maxwell, and Larry Niksch and responded to questions from members of the audience.

The Institute for Corean-American Studies (ICAS) symposium on “The Korean Peninsula Issues and United States National Security” was held in the Rayburn House Office Building. close 

Tailored Deterrence and the Nuclear Employment Strategy of the United States: Incongruity in The October 2 Joint Seoul Communique?

The attached at the link below by Baker Spring from Heritage was presented today at a symposium presented by the Institute of Corean American Studies (symposium information below).  It is an interesting analysis of the US nuclear situation.  I have never read such an analysis.  It seems that the Administration's pursuit of "nuclear zero" may have significant effects on our deterrent capabilities our national security.

V/R
Dave

http://www.icasinc.org/2013/2013f/2013fbxs.pdf

Tailored Deterrence and the Nuclear Employment Strategy 

of the United States: Incongruity in The October 2 Joint Seoul Communique? 

Presentation to the Institute for Corean-American Studies 

Baker Spring 

October 11, 2013

During 45th ROK –U.S. Security Consultative Meeting in Seoul, the Korean Minister of 

National Defense Kim Kwan Jin and the U.S. Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel signed a Joint 

Communique on October 2, 2013. One provision of the Joint Communique reaffirmed the U.S. 

commitment to provide and strengthen extended deterrence for enhancing deterrence options 

against North Korean nuclear and other weapons of mass destruction. Further, the Minister and 

the Secretary endorsed a bilateral “tailored deterrence strategy” to ensure that the U.S. policy of 

extended deterrence for the Republic of Korea remains “credible, capable, and enduring.” 

ICAS  Fall Symposium Institute for Corean-American Studies, Inc.http://www.icasinc.org/2013/2013f/2013fsym.html

October 11 2013 Friday 1:30 PM - 4:30 PM Mortara Center Conference Room Georgetown University Washington DC Humanity, Liberty, Peace and Security The Korean Peninsula Issues* and US National Security
12:30 PM	Registration
Moderator	Sang Joo Kim (ICAS Sr Fellow & Executive Vice President)
12:55 PM	Welcome & Opening Remarks Synja P Kim (ICAS Fellow, President and Chairman)
1:30 PM	Baker Spring (F.M. Kirby Research Fellow, The Heritage Foundation) Tailored Deterrence and the Nuclear Employment Strategy of the United States: Incongruity in The October 2 Joint Seoul Communique?
2:30 PM	Joseph R. DeTrani (Ambassador and President, Intelligence and National Security Alliance; introduced by Il Hwan Kim, ICAS Director) State of North Korean Affairs: Challenges and Outlook
3:30 PM	Ho Young Ahn (Ambassador of the Republic of Korea to the United States of America ) Trust Building on the Korean Peninsula and The Northeast Asia Peace and Cooperation Initiative
4:30 PM	Adjourn
Discussants
Joseph Bosco	(ICAS Fellow; Senior Associate, CSIS)
David Maxwell	(ICAS Fellow; Associate Director, Security Studies Program, Georgetown University)
Larry Niksch	(ICAS Fellow; Senior Associate, CSIS)

Upcoming ICAS Programs
ICAS Annual Liberty Award Dinner
Guest of Honour: Kurt Campbell
December 6, 2013, 6:30 pm - 9:30 pm
Cannon Caucus Room
Capitol Hill Washinton DC

*ICAS designates this educational activity for continuing education/professional development for a maximum of 3:50 hours credit commensurate with the extent of actual participation.

ICASis not an agent of any government and/or a foreign principal, and solely supported by voluntary contributions.

ICAS Liberty Foundation seeks to promote the cause of humanity, liberty, peace, prosperity and security through cultural, educational and research activities. It presents ICAS Symposia series as a public service pro bono publico

C-Span Coverage of the Institute of Corean American Studies Spring Seminar on May 10, 2013

The 3 hour seminar is at this link.  The participants are listed below.

V/R
Dave

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/event/218593

THE KOREAN PENINSULA AND U.S. NATIONAL SECURITY

Institute for Corean-American Studies

The State Department Special Envoy for North Korea Human Rights Issues, Ambassador Robert King, addresses a panel discussion on threats from North Korea and their potential effects on security in the Korean Peninsula and internationally

C-SPAN Live Humanity, Liberty, Peace and Security The Korean Peninsula Issues* and US National Security May 10 2013 Friday 1:30 PM - 4:30 PM Rayburn Office Building Room B318 United States House of Representatives Capitol Hill Washington DC 20515
12:30 PM	Registration
Moderator:	Sang Joo Kim (ICAS Sr Fellow & Executive Vice President)
12:55 PM	Welcome & Opening Remarks Synja P Kim (ICAS Fellow, President and Chairman)
1:30 PM	Joseph Bosco (National security consultant; Senior Associate CSIS; former OSD official, Pentagon) China's Role in the Korean Peninsula Issues
2:30 pm	Steven Bucci (Director, Douglas & Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, Heritage Foundation; introduced by Il Hwan Kim,ICAS Director) The East Asian Security Environment and US Foreign Policy
3:30 PM	Robert R. King (Ambassador & Special Envoy for North Korea Human Rights Issues, US State Dept; introduced by Jack Kim, ICASSpecial Liaison) North Korea's Human Rights Issues Affairs
4:30 PM	Adjourn
Discussants
David Maxwell	(ICAS Fellow; Associate Director, Security Studies Program, Georgetown University)
Larry Niksch	(ICAS Fellow; Senior Associate, CSIS)

ICAS Spring Symposium - The Korean Peninsula Issues** and US National Security

ICAS Liberty Foundation                                                                                                                 presents*  ICAS Spring Symposium www.icasinc.org                                                     Humanity, Liberty, Peace and Security The Korean Peninsula Issues** and US National Security May  10  2013   Friday  1:30 PM - 4:30 PM Rayburn Office Building Room B318 United States House of Representatives              Capitol Hill  Washington DC 20515                On-Line Registration   Chair       :             Synja P Kim     (ICAS  Fellow, President and Chairman)  Moderator:                 Sang Joo Kim    (ICAS  Sr Fellow & Executive Vice President)                                  Speakers                          Joseph Bosco      (National security consultant; Senior Associate CSIS; former OSD official, Pentagon)                            China's Role in the Korean Peninsula Issues Steven Bucci        (Director, Douglas & Sarah Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies, Heritage Found)                             The East Asian Security Environment and US Foreign Policy Robert R. King    (Ambassador & Special Envoy for North Korea Human Rights Issues, US State Dept)                            North Korea's Human Rights Issues Discussants        David Maxwell           (ICAS Fellow; Associate Director, Security Studies Program, Georgetown University) Larry Niksch           (ICAS Fellow; Senior Associate, CSIS)                                 (list in formation)                                                 Upcoming ICAS Programs                                         *as a public service pro bono publico      **ICAS designates this educational activity for continuing education/professional development for a                 maximum of 3:00 hours credit commensurate with the extent of actual participation.         ICAS is not an agent of any government and/or a foreign principal, and solely supported by voluntary                     contributions.                ICAS is the "Go-to-Place" of the first order for American affairs, Korean affairs, Korean-American                               affairs, and international/Washington relations.      1.7 million Korean-Americans reside in the USA. (Census 2010)