GSSR Special Issue: What the New Administration Needs to Know About Terrorism and Counterterrorism

The 122 page report can be downloaded at this link:  http://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/GSSR-What-the-New-Administration-Needs-to-Know-About-Terrorism-and-Counterterrorism.pdf  The video for the conference is at this link: https://www.youtube.com/user/GUSecurityStudies

GSSR Special Issue: What the New Administration Needs to Know About Terrorism and Counterterrorism

 Feb 24, 2017  GSSR  Europe, Intelligence, International Security, Middle East, Special Issues, Terrorism, The Review, US National Security  0

---

The Georgetown Security Studies Review is very proud to present a new special issue: “What the New Administration Needs to Know About Terrorism and Counterterrorism”. This issue contains articles and remarks from some of the world’s eminent scholars of terrorism and counterterrorism, who gathered at Georgetown University on 26-27 January, 2017 for a conference jointly hosted by Georgetown University’s Center for Security Studies and the Handa Centre for the Study of Terrorism and Political Violence of the University of St Andrews, Scotland.

The special issue is available for download here.

The GSSR would like to graciously thank all who made contributions to this important special issue!

Please direct all inquiries regarding this issue to the Georgetown Security Studies Review Editor-in-Chief at GSSR@georgetown.edu.

Lone Wolf Terrorism: Shooting at Gay Nightclub Kills 50, Wounds 53 in Worst Mass Shooting in U.S. History

Nearly a year ago our students' National Security Critical Issues Task Force published this report on Lone Wolf Terrorism.  We really have to work harder on this problem.  http://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/NCITF-Final-Paper.pdf

Finding 1: There Is No Single USG Definition of LWT

Finding 2: Four Measurable Trends in Lone Wolf Terrorism

Finding 3: Profiling Lone Wolf Terrorists is Ineffective

Finding 4: Lone Wolves Follow a Similar Radicalization and Mobilization Path

Finding 5: Existing Typologies Fail to Explain Why Lone Wolves Act Alone

Finding 6: Challenges in Identifying Lone Wolves Using Traditional Law Enforcement Tactics 

Finding 7: Law Enforcement Responses Can Result in Community Mistrust

Finding 8: The US Lacks a “Whole of Government” Approach

Recommendation One: Adopt a Standard Definition 

Recommendation Two: Appoint Clear Leadership over Lone Wolf Terrorism

Recommendation Three: Emphasize Preventing and Short Circuiting Radicalization

Shooting at Gay Nightclub Kills 50, Wounds 53 in Worst Mass Shooting in U.S. History

Alleged shooter identified as Omar S. Mateen

http://www.wsj.com/articles/orlando-nightclub-hit-by-shooting-causing-multiple-injuries-1465720691/?mod=e2tw

By 

VALERIE BAUERLEIN,

 

PERVAIZ SHALLWANI and

SCOTT CALVERT

Updated June 12, 2016 11:28 a.m. ET

1414 COMMENTS

ORLANDO, Fla.—Orlando Mayor Buddy Dyer said Sunday morning there were 50 dead and at least 53 injured at an Orlando gay nightclub, the worst mass shooting in U.S. history.

A counterterrorism official Sunday morning identified the alleged shooter as Omar S. Mateen, 29, of Port Saint Lucie. The official said he believed the alleged shooter lived with his sister and her husband.

Federal investigators said they are looking for ties to any terrorist organization. There is some evidence the shooter may have had “leanings” toward a radical Islamic ideology, but there is no definitive information yet, according to the Federal Bureau of Investigation.

Police shot and killed the suspected killer at about 5 a.m. after an hours-long standoff with police, Chief John W. Mina said at a 7 a.m. news conference. The man was wearing a suspicious device, carrying an assault rifle and a handgun, and took hostages, Mr. Mina said.

The shootings took place at Pulse, a gay nightclub in downtown Orlando.

“All the killing that was done was with an assault rifle, a single weapon...it was done very quickly also,” said Rep. Alan Grayson, D, said Sunday morning. “There’s blood everywhere” in the club, he said, noting that he spoke to someone who had seen the club following the shooting. “There’s an enormous amount of evidence to be collected systematically over the course of many hours.”

Georgetown Security Studies Review Volume 4, Number 1 January 2016

The latest edition of our student run peer-reviewed security studies review can be downloaded at this link:  http://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/GSSR-Vol.-4-Iss.-1.pdf
The home page for the review is at this link: http://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/

Georgetown Security Studies Review

Volume 4, Number 1

January 2016

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Why Greater American-Russian Counter-ISIL Cooperation is
Needed ................................................................................................. 4
Blake Bassett

Secret Evidence and its Legalities in an Evolving World of
Intelligence and Cybersecurity ....................................................... 36
Donna Artusy

Realism, World War I, and the US-China Relationship .............. 51
Abigail Casey

The Russian Counterinsurgency Campaign in Chechnya During
the Second War and Chechenizatsia .............................................. 69
David Sidamonidze

Atlanticist Drift: French Security Policy After de Gaulle ............ 93
Daniel Lim

The Islamic State’s Social Media and Recruitment Strategy:
Papering Over a Flimsy Caliphate ............................................... 120
Ryan Pereira

Report: Lone Wolf Terrorism Prepared by the Security Studies Program National Security Critical Issue Task Force

The entire report can be downloaded from the Georgetown Security Studies Review web site at this link: http://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/NCITF-Final-Paper.pdf

Seventeen Security Studies studies and two professors did a deep dive on Lone Wolf Terrorism in June.  I was able to participate in their final briefing of the report as they presented it to a number of senior US leaders.  I think the report with its eight findings and three recommendations is very much worth reading.  The EXSUM and the Methodology and Scope are pasted below.

Report:  Lone Wolf Terrorism

Prepared by the Security Studies Program National Security Critical Issue Task Force

Executive Summary 

The United States (US) is the primary target among western states for lone wolf terrorist (LWT) attacks, and the frequency of attacks continues to increase. Even though LWT attacks remain less common and precipitate fewer casualties than terrorist attacks conducted by organizations, the US must continue to focus counterterrorism resources and encourage further research to combat this threat to national security. In this assessment, the Georgetown National Security Critical Issue Task Force (NSCITF) hopes to inform key stakeholders about the most critical lone wolf terrorism issues and spark new policy discussions on how to address the problem. 

The NSCITF articulates eight findings that inform the collective understanding of lone wolf terrorism and offers three actionable recommendations to address those findings. First, the NSCITF finds that no single USG definition on lone wolf terrorism exists. Second, the NSCITF identifies the following four current trends in domestic LWT attacks, each of which highlight multiple issues that US policymakers must consider when drafting counterterrorism policies directed at LWTs: 

1) Increased targeting of law enforcement (LE) and military personnel; 

2) Overwhelming use firearms to conduct attacks, compared to LWTs in other western countries who rely on hijackings or bombs; 

3) Increased radicalization via the Internet, extremist media, and the civilian workplace; and, 

4) Proclamation of an individual ideology instead of claiming affinity to specific, organized extremist groups. 

Third, despite the presence of overarching trends among domestic LWTs, the NSCITF determines that profiling fails to target potential LWTs effectively. Consequently, in the fourth finding, the NSCITF provides a framework to understand how an individual becomes a LWT and to identify possible intervention points. Fifth, the NSCITF develops a typology that organizes lone wolves in terms of their ideological autonomy and social competence to explicate why lone wolves operate alone, a key gap in the extant literature on terrorism. 

The final three findings address US federal and local law enforcement policies to prevent LWT attacks. In the sixth finding, the NSCITF identifies the challenges of using traditional law 7 enforcement tactics to identify and stop LWTs. Specifically, the NSCITF highlights how the expansion of the Internet and social media offers individuals an ability to become radicalized without physically interacting with others and research various attack methodologies undetected. The seventh finding demonstrates that aggressive law enforcement tactics—namely, surveillance and monitoring of targeted individuals—risk community mistrust because of perceived infringements on civil liberties and privacy rights. In the final finding, the NSCITF notes that the US lacks a comprehensive, “whole of government” approach that coherently and systematically organizes the federal, local, and state efforts to combat lone wolfterrorism. 

Based on the above findings, the NSCITF offers three recommendations. First, the USG should adopt a standard definition of lone wolf terrorism. Second, the USG should appoint clear leadership over the problem of lone wolf terrorism to streamline future policy responses and improve governmental coordination at the federal, state, and local levels. Finally, the USG should emphasize the prevention and short-circuiting of the radicalization process. Each recommendation will help the USG streamline future policy responses and improve governmental coordination at the federal, state, and local levels to prevent future LWT attacks.

Methodology and Scope 

The NSCITF developed the findings and recommendations outlined in this report through substantial research into the existing open source literature on LWTs. The NSCITF supplemented this research by conducting interviews with subject matter experts, USG policymakers, attorneys, and academics. 

This assessment relies extensively on two datasets (Spaaij 2012 and Hamm & Spaaij 2015) to analyze the scope of the problem and the trends in domestic attacks. The authors in both datasets require that an individual threaten or commit violence alone to constitute “lone wolf terrorism,” as opposed to violence committed by pairs or trios. Thus, the datasets remain consistent with the NSCITF’s definition of lone wolf terrorism. 

In addition, although recent academic literature and open source reports have addressed the possible threat of lone wolf cyber terrorists, this assessment will not address the use of computer network attacks as a methodology for terrorist attacks.1 The NSCITF believes that the most immediate and concerning method used by LWTs as it relates to US national security is the use of violence targeting human lives and property; currently, there are no examples of domestic lone wolf terrorists launching cyber terrorist attacks that precipitate casualties or property destruction. However, the definition does not exclude the possibility that lone wolf cyber attacks could constitute terrorism, and the potential of lone wolf cyber terrorism warrants future study.

Georgetown Security Studies Review 3:1 !3

The new issue of the Georgetown Security Studies Review has just been posted on line.

The PDF can be downloaded at this link.  http://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/01/GSSR-Vol.-3-Iss.-1.pdf

The Table of Contents is below.

This is the link to the GSSR main web site with other features:  http://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/

Georgetown Security Studies Review 3:1 !3

North Korea, ASEAN, and Denuclearization 4
Martin J. Cool
This paper explores the history of relations between North Korea and Southeast Asian nations
then seeks to find a synthesis between ASEAN’s preference for engagement and the United
States’ policy of isolation given the unique problem set that North Korean denuclearization
presents.

Shifting Opinions: Israel & the International Community 20
Michael Donovan
American and international opinions are shifting away from unconditionally backing Israel.
Perception of the conflict is evolving in terms of international legal norms, human rights, and the
morality of foreign occupation. This article explores that shift and outlines an opportunity for
American policymakers to harness this change of opinion, and perhaps bring Israeli
policymakers to the negotiating table.

Technology Domain Awareness: Building the Defense Innovation Base 33
Adam Jay Harrison, Jawad Rachami, & Christopher Zember
This article outlines the innovation imperative facing the U.S. Department of Defense and details
current and future plans pursued by the DOD Information Analysis Centers to develop a defense
innovation operating system that sustains the United States’ military-technology edge in the face
of persistent operational, technological, and fiscal volatility and uncertainty.

The Resilience of Profit-seeking Illicit Networks: The Case of the Arellano-
Félix Organization 49
Barbara Cedillo Lopez
It is important to understand why some profit seeking illicit networks have chosen to evade, coopt,
or confront government forces; and why the states choose to target some illicit networks
through repression, while they tolerate and even colluded with others. This paper presents a
typology of resilience for illicit networks, and uses an historical case study to test this typology.
Moroccan Jihadism in Europe: A Quantitative Analysis of Migration and

Terror Plots by Individuals of Moroccan Origin in Western Europe 71
Jeffrey D. Palmer
This essay provides an analysis of the quantitative properties of Moroccan migration patterns and
incidents of jihadist terrorism, whether disrupted, failed, or executed, by individuals of Moroccan
origin (i.e. first- and second-generation migrants) in Western Europe from 2001 to 2013.

The Sino-American Airpower Competition: A Net Assessment 82
James Nolan
This article seeks to determine where the U.S. stands vis-à-vis China’s airpower capabilities over
the next 15 to 20 years. It employs the net assessment framework, drawing from open source
data and existing literature currently available on both militaries. This analysis concludes the
United States will continue to hold an advantage in the air for the next 15 to 20 years.

Vol 2, Issue 1 of Georgetown Security Studies Review

The latest issue (fourth) of the student run peer–reviewed Georgetown Security Studies Review can be downloaded at this link.  http://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/12/GSSR-Vol-2-No-1-Dec_27_2013.pdf

The link to the web page with more resources and articles and all the back issues of the review is at this link. http://georgetownsecuritystudiesreview.org/

Kudos to the students of our Security Studies Program.

V/R
Dave

Table of Contents 

Opinion: Unsustainable Peace in Mali 5 

Whit Miller argues that regional pressures will break the ceasefire signed between the 

Malian government and the Tuareg rebels. 

 

Reevaluating U.S. Defense Conversion Assistance to Russia 9 

Lisa Bergstrom analyzes post-Cold War U.S. defense conversion assistance to Russia. 

The article shows that, while defense conversion has economic, political, and social 

benefits, and may even promote the peaceful resolutions of conflicts, the Department 

of Defense approach to conversion assistance was flawed and unsustainable. The article 

concludes that, if the United States provides defense conversion assistance to other 

overly militarized states, Washington should adopt a less centrally-managed approach. 

 

Morality in Intelligence Practice 19 

Natasia Kalajdziovski analyzes morality in domestic counterterrorism intelligence 

activities through a historical analysis of the moral questions encountered by the 

British intelligence services throughout the Troubles in Northern Ireland. This case 

study highlights three important considerations: the complexity of the threatscape as it 

emerged, the length of the conflict and its many phases, and the level of public scrutiny 

for the security establishment as the conflict protracted. The article concludes that, 

with proper oversight and review mechanisms, domestic intelligence requires a 

“different morality” than what exists in civilian life. 

 

Evolving Civil-Military Relations 29 

Faiqa Mahmood analyzes the role of the Egyptian military in politics and considers how 

civil-military relations may be improved. This article traces the historical development 

of civil-military relations in Egypt and then compares the situation in Egypt with those 

of Turkey and Pakistan. The analysis demonstrates that, while the militaries of neither 

Turkey nor Pakistan can boast the levels of civilian control present in some Western 

governments, Egypt can still draw lessons from the evolutionary paths of both 

militaries. 

 

Winning Minds: The Role of Education in Securing Afghanistan 45 

Elizabeth Royall questions the effectiveness of education in the counterinsurgency 

effort in Afghanistan. Both the Coalition and the Taliban claimed a correlation 

between Afghan education and their strategic goals. This article addresses whether 

Afghan education content and provision affect security. It reviews the history of 

education in Afghanistan, examines the Taliban’s evolving view of education, and 

analyzes existing metrics of security and education.