Monday, May 6, 2019

“North Korea: What are the Prospects for Regime Change from Within?” Political Defiance is Necessary in North Korea

My remarks presented at this event are below.


LUNCHEON TOPIC:
“North Korea: What are the Prospects for
Regime Change from Within?”
SPEAKERS: 
North Korea Freedom Week Defector Delegation
Special opening remarks by David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
WHEN:  Friday, May 3, 2019, 12:00 noon - 2 pm
WHERE: 2168 Rayburn House Office Building, Capitol Hill
 
Is there any hope that the Kim family’s 70 year plus reign of terror can be peacefully brought to an end by the very people who have escaped?  North Korean defectors visiting Washington, D.C. for the 16th annual North Korea Freedom Week will answer that question and discuss their work aimed at bringing peaceful unification to Korea and the end of the Kim Jong Un regime.  The presenters are all targeted by Kim Jong un for assassination: Kim Seong Min of Free North Korea Radio, Park Sang Hak of Fighters for Free North Korea, Kim Heung-Kwang of North Korean Intellectuals Solidarity, Hu Kwang il of the Committee for the Democratization of North Korea and Choi Jeung Hun of the North Korea People’s Liberation Front.
RSVP REQUIRED FOR ADMITTANCE (acceptances only): For more information, contact Suzanne here

Political Defiance is Necessary in North Korea
by David Maxwell
Senior Fellow, Foundation for Defense of Democracies
Thank you Suzanne for the kind introduction.
It is truly an honor to be here with these brave Koreans from the north who have escaped from the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State we know as north Korea.  Anyone who has survived the north and escaped has my deepest respect and admiration.

As a retired Special Forces soldier, I still believe in our motto – “de oppresso liber” – to free the oppressed.  And more accurately what Green Berets try to do is to help the oppressed free themselves. I hope the day will soon come when 25 million Koreans in the north can throw off the yoke of oppression that is around their necks as a result of the actions of the mafia-like crime family cult we know as the Kim family regime.

It is my belief that the only way we will see an end to the nuclear and missile programs and the crimes against humanity being committed in the north is through the solution of the “Korea question” which was outlined in paragraph 60 of the 1953 Armistice.  The military commanders called on the political leaders of all concerned parties to come together within 90 days of the signing to solve the Korea question which is the unnatural division of the peninsula.  We have been waiting for nearly 66 years for this to happen.

As I study the security situation in Korea there are five fundamental questions that are on the forefront of my mind and should be considered as we try to understand the situation and chart a way ahead that will serve, protect, and advance US and ROK/US alliance interests and the interests of the 25 million Koreans suffering in the north.  The first two are policy questions and the next three are intelligence questions that we must seek to understand and answer.

1.  What do we want to achieve in Korea?

2.  What is the acceptable durable political arrangement that will protect, serve, and advance US and ROK/US Alliance interests on the Korean Peninsula and in Northeast Asia?

3.  Do we believe that Kim Jong-un will ever abandon the seven decades old strategy of subversion, coercion-extortion (blackmail diplomacy), and use of force to achieve unification dominated by the Guerrilla Dynasty and Gulag State in order to ensure the survival of the mafia like crime family cult known as the Kim family regime?

4.  In support of that strategy do we believe that Kim Jong-un will abandon the objective to split the ROK/US Alliance and get US forces off the peninsula?  Will KJU give up his divide and conquer strategy - divide the alliance and conquer the ROK?

I think the answer to both questions 3 and 4 is no.  He will never give up his political warfare strategy that he is executing every day against the ROK, the US, and the international community.

5.  The most important fifth and final question is: Who does Kim fear more: The US or the Korean people in the north? I think we all know the answer to this question due to the very nature of regime and its institutionalized system of oppression and tyrannical dictatorial rule.  But it is the answer to this question that provides the way forward to solve the Korea question.  While the solution may come as a result of war or regime collapse the best way is for it to come from within – from within the 25 million Koreans living in the north.

The answers to these questions should guide us to the strategy to solve the "Korea question" and lead to the only acceptable durable political arrangement: A secure, stable, economically vibrant, non-nuclear Korean peninsula unified under a liberal constitutional form of government determined by the Korean people.  In short, a United Republic of Korea (UROK).

As we consider the threats from the north, to include its nuclear and conventional forces and its global illicit activities from counterfeiting, drug trafficking, and slave labor to cyber attacks, the most important and overlooked one is the north’s use of subversion to undermine the legitimacy of the ROK.  The regime has committed tremendous effort to trying to subvert the South and at the same time has developed the most sophisticated system to prevent internal subversion in the north.  It fears subversive activities against the regime most of all.  And the most subversive activity comes in the form of information and influence activities.

What is subversion?
  • The undermining of the power and authority of an established system or institution.
    • As in: "the ruthless subversion of democracy" versus “the effective subversion of a dictatorship.”

At the very root of the problem Koreans are in an Ideological War – which really is about the choice of values the Korean people in the north and South want to live by:

·      Shared ROK/US Values:
o   Freedom and individual liberty, liberal democracy, free market economy, and human rights
·      Kim family regime (KFR) “values”
o   Juche/Kimilsungism, Socialist Workers Paradise, Songun, Songbun, Byungjin, and denial of human rights to sustain the KFR in power

The choice between these values belongs to all Koreans.

I am a great fan of Gene Sharp and Robert Helvey.  Gene Sharp wrote the seminal work “From Dictatorship to Democracy.” One of the most important concepts is Political Defiance which was coined by Robert Helvey.  “Political defiance” is used principally to describe action by populations to regain from dictatorships control over governmental institutions by relentlessly attacking their sources of power and deliberately using strategic planning and operations to do so.  This is one of the most important lines of effort to solving the Korea question.

There are four paths to a United Republic of Korea.

1. The first path is Peaceful – this is most unlikely but counterintuitively the one the ROK can and must prepare for with the help of the US and international community.  It is the morally right focus and should be the foundation for all overt policy development and planning and in fact has been the alliance vision for the past three ROK and two US Presidents.  I would argue that everything planned for peaceful unification – economic integration, political integration, cultural integration, and even military integration will be necessary in any of the other three paths.  Unification, whether peaceful or otherwise, must result in a United Republic of Korea with no traces left of the Kim family regime.

2. The second path is War – It is the fastest way to unification as it will result in the defeat of the nKPA and destruction of the Kim family regime infrastructure.  But it is too costly in blood and treasure; therefore, we must work to deter war.

3.  The third path is regime collapse – while this might seem like a good path it is also fraught with danger, complexity, uncertainty, and most likely some level of conflict up to and including war.

4. The fourth path is the outlier but may be the best answer and that is regime removal and replacement with a political power who will seek peaceful unification to create a United Republic of Korea.  The most important tool in developing the political defiance that can lead to this outcome is information and influence activities.

An aggressive information and influence activities campaign must be sustained over time.  In the US we describe it this way:  Information and Influence Activities comprise “the integration of designated information related capabilities in order to synchronize themes, messages, and actions with operations to inform United States and global audiences, influence foreign audiences, and affect adversary and enemy decision making.

In the context of north Korea we need to influence three broad target audiences:  the regime elite and its decision making but also more critically to undermine regime legitimacy.  Next is the second tier leadership – those leaders outside the regime who possess power – namely military power such as the division, corps, and army commanders. We must remove their will to both attack the South and suppress the Korean people in the north.  The third are the Korean people themselves who must be supported as they develop and execute political defiance against the regime and who must be prepared for the establishment of a United Republic of Korea.  In short, we must attack the legitimacy of the regime, remove the will to oppress the Korean people by the second tier leadership, and prepare the Korean people for political defiance and unification.

Of course, Clausewitz said “in war everything is simple but even the simplest thing is hard.”  We should keep in mind this is an ideological war that is fought with information and influence.  It is easy for me to say and describe this, but it is complex, uncertain, and hard in execution.  Fortunately, we have experts in this process who can lead us in the hard work.  These heroes, who have escaped from the oppression in the north, know what it takes to influence their fellow Koreans.  We should listen to their wisdom but more importantly we must support their efforts.  I pledge to do so and I urge all of you to do the same.

Thank you.
David Maxwell is a retired U.S, Army Special Forces Colonel and a Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. He also contributes to FDD’s Center for Military and Political Power. Follow him on Twitter at @davidmaxwell161. Follow FDD on Twitter @FDD and @FDD_CMPP. FDD is a Washington-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.

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